Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 5

• Spread: Cowboys -9.5
• Total: 46.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): DAL 30, TB 18

Chicago Bears Fantasy Preview

What a ride for the Bears so far, posting as many wins as different starting quarterbacks this young season. Not sure anyone’s ever had three different QBs win games in the first four weeks of a season — or if there’s ever been a larger one-week swing than hanging 59 points in Carolina, only to head home and muster a lone field goal versus Minnesota. Definitely a thrill a minute for the Monsters of the Midway.

Now it’s Tyson Bagent under center once more, who’s happy about Sunday’s victory and his 74% completion rate, but that’s about it. The UDFA out of Shepherd technically kept the buses on schedule (25-34; 268-0-1), but at a 5.1 ADoT plus little rushing appeal, it’s not an optimal fantasy profile.

Nevertheless, Bagent’s going to keep Chicago’s receivers viable via accuracy, just don’t expect much in terms of deep shots — that’s never been his game. Ben Johnson shortened the field for his backup shot callers while re-centering focus around their top playmakers (sorry to the Kalif Raymond hive, it’s over).

So, while Bagent’s not necessarily fantasy-friendly on his own, lots of high-probability layup catches can be great for PPR — he’s targeted one of Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, or Colston Loveland on over 71% of all throws. I know the Loveland crowd’s gotta be thrilled to hear that last part, especially since he’s now the team leader in both red and end zone targets. Breakout loading …

Through three weeks, RB D’Andre Swift logged nearly double the touches and fantasy points of backup Kyle Monangai, with a firm grasp on all the goal-line work. Fast forward to the Week 4 game versus NYJ, when Swift lost a fumble described by HC Ben Johnson as “egregious” — and the Bears’ backfield suddenly experiences a full-on role reversal. Swift sees the field for just three snaps in the second half, playing behind Roschon Johnson (?!?) while Monangai had the best game of his young career (30-146-2; 1-4-0). Could be nothing, but Swift managers need to be on high alert for a flippening …

• Start: RB D’Andre Swift, WR Rome Odunze, WR Luther Burden, TE Colston Loveland
• Sit: QB Tyson Bagent
• Sleeper: RB Kyle Monangai

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview

No team in the game today presents more of a disparity between offensive phases than the Packers. Honestly wonder if I don’t trust them more to make a 3rd and 15 than a 3rd and short. No, really. Green Bay’s run game remains so unbelievably poor, it’s dragging the entire operation down the tubes (-0.35 EPA/attempt, 58.0 yards/game, 3.2 yards/carry, 2.21 yards after contact/rush, 37.0% success, 0 rushing TD). Did I tell you it was bad, or did I tell you it was bad?

An impossibly bad ground attack wouldn't always be such a terrible thing for fantasy QBs, except GB’s also missing multiple starters on its O-line. So, as much as we love the idea of Jordan Love dropping back +40 times/game on average, an elevated 38.9% pressure rate’s led to an NFL-worst 32 QB hits. Ouch. Mix in three times more receiver drops than the league average (12), and it’s a cheese-scented cacophony of frustration. Chicago’s secondary may have played well of late, but I’m rolling with Love one more time for shootout potential alone.

Onto Green Bay’s big three, and finally something positive to talk about. Enter Matthew Golden and Christian Watson into the conversation, the league’s only current pair of WR1s to wear the same jersey. The green and yellow dynamic duo’s averaging over +8.0 targets/game, +15.0 yards/catch, and +5.5 YAC/reception. Wow. Add a full-time Tucker Kraft into the fold, also good for 7.5 targets/game over the last two contests — and there’s an uber-talented trio soaking up over 62% of all team targets. Please don’t give up on your Packers’ pass catchers just yet.

Now, the sad ending. I guess who knows, maybe injuries to Green Bay starting LB Edgerrin Cooper and CB Brandon Cisse will open the floodgates early enough to spare us from having to watch these Packers try and operate between the tackles. It’s so painful. Choose your fighter; it hardly matters. With Chris Brooks (ankle) likely out or limited, it’s some combination of MarShawn Lloyd (2.7 yards/carry, 1.97 yards after contact/rush, -0.43 EPA/attempt) or my choice for best of a bad situation, Kaleb Johnson (4.0 yards/carry, -0.42 EPA/attempt, 35.0% success rate, 30.0% ≤0-yard gains). Sigh. There’s not a single top-22 RB finish on GB’s ledger this season, and I doubt that streak ends Sunday.

• Start: QB Jordan Love, WR Christian Watson, WR Matthew Golden, TE Tucker Kraft
• Sit: RB Kaleb Johnson
• Sleeper: RB MarShawn Lloyd

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Chicago may be missing their quarterback, but Green Bay’s missing an identity. Can’t be so extraordinarily flawed and expect to win football games. Bears' defense holds serve again, raising the question of whether we wrote them out of the championship picture prematurely.