Ian Hartitz presents the Houston Texans 2025 NFL Team Preview and Fantasy Football Outlook.

On the one hand, the 2024 Texans finished with double-digit wins, won the AFC South, and even captured a Wild Card playoff victory over the Chargers. That's a lot of good things!

On the other hand, C.J. Stroud went from looking like the next big thing at QB to posting average-to-meh numbers across the board, and this dark horse Super Bowl contender wound up with a *0* point differential during a season that still felt like a bit of a disappointment relative to preseason expectations.

Houston Texans in 2024:

  • Points per game: 21.9 (19th)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.01 (21st)
  • EPA per rush: -0.12 (23rd)
  • Points per game against: 21.9 (14th)

That said: New year, new Texans, and the organization has taken steps to fix the offensive side of the football by replacing OC Bobby Slowik with former Patriots/Rams assistant Nick Caley. Throw in offensive line and WR room overhauls, and at a minimum there are plenty of new faces tasked with bringing the Texans to their first-ever Super Bowl appearance. 

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy-related) questions about the Texans ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Note: All referenced ADP (in parentheses) is Underdog, via our Fantasy Life ADP Tool. For our full fantasy football rankings as well as early Week 1 rankings, head to our rankings hub.

Houston Texans 2025 Fantasy Football And Team Preview

Why should C.J. Stroud's 2025 season be any different than 2024?

Feel free to blame Bobby Slowik, the offensive line, and/or copious WR injuries: Either way the 2024 version of Stroud was largely a shell of the man we saw during his rookie season. Among 32 qualified QBs …

 

Stroud's finish as the QB28 in fantasy points per game (gross) made him easily the biggest faller (-23) from preseason ADP (QB5). Nobody else had a dropoff of more than 14 spots. I still can't get over this: QB28! Even removing his 11-snap Week 18 performance only gets us to QB25, and sadly, that actually wasn't even his lowest weekly score of the year.

Now, Stroud doesn't turn 24 until October; his sophomore slump is hardly reason to completely sound the fire alarms on his career. Still, many were ready to anoint the Ohio State product as a legit top-five real-life and fantasy QB after his memorable rookie campaign, and that sentiment simply isn't really around these days.

So why will 2025 be any different? Well, the hope is that new OC Nick Caley could perhaps do a better job adjusting to his circumstances than the departed Slowik, although I struggle to simply assume the grass will suddenly be greener. Last year's Texans didn't exactly carry a bunch of schematic red flags in terms of early-down, pass-down rate (54.6%, 17th), play-action dropback rate (26%, 13th), or pre-snap shift/motion rate (61.3%, 6th). Slowik wasn't great, but we weren't exactly looking at Shane Waldron levels of distress here (sorry for the stray Bears fans).

The real issue sure looked like the offensive line. Sometimes pressure rate can be misleading in situations when QBs create their own problems, but PFF can help us discern the difference.

 

 

PFF's reigning 29th-ranked offensive line deserves a lot of blame for the Texans' pressure-induced issues last season, and they accordingly overhauled the group during the offseason. The problem is that none of their additions exactly received overly favorable grades themselves last season with their former employers, which brings into question what sort of improvement we can realistically expect at the line of scrimmage ahead of 2025.

C.J. Stroud 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Maybe Nick Caley's time working with Josh McDaniels and Sean McVay leads to him being one of the next-great offensive minds, but generally I prefer to follow the Jimmy's and Joe's over the X's and O's—and it's pretty tough to look at the 2025 Texans offense and conclude that it's a meaningfully improved unit on paper both on the offensive line and in terms of playmakers.

Ultimately, Stroud's pass-first fantasy profile places him in a similar archetype bucket as guys like Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow—high-end passing production is NEEDED, and I'm not too confident that the supporting cast is in place to necessarily get the young QB back to partying like it's 2023 again. Stroud is accordingly my QB20 and not someone I've gone out of my way to acquire unless purposely stacking with Nico Collins; I prefer guys with arguably more rushing upside in objectively better offensive situations like J.J. McCarthy and Trevor Lawrence when waiting at the position.

Does the presence of Nick Chubb change anything for Joe Mixon?

Mixon came into last season fully expected to work as the offense's lead back—and that's exactly what happened! Still, the more surprising part was the ex-Bengal producing on par with some of the game's very best players at the position for a large portion of the season. Consider: Mixon was the RB2 in PPR points per game (21.2)—behind only Saquon Barkley (22.7)—in Weeks 1-14 … but then worked as the RB37 (8.2) on a per-game basis during the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 15-17.

Unfortunate finish in the fantasy playoffs aside, Mixon looked better as a pure runner of the football than he had in years.

Mixon rush yards over expected per carry:

  • 2024: +0.37 (19th)
  • 2023: +0.02 (27th)
  • 2022: +0.21 (24th)
  • 2021: -0.07 (27th)
  • 2020: -0.25 (41st)

Back-to-back playoff performances with triple-digit yards and a TD reinforced the idea that Mixon was still very much capable of thriving as a true three-down back.

This brings us to Chubb, who should be lauded for his ability to get back on the field after 2023's brutal knee injury, but unfortunately, the story didn't exactly end well.

Chubb among 46 RBs with 100-plus carries:

  • Yards per carry: 3.3 (No. 45)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.7 (No. 38)
  • Yards over expected per carry: -0.25 (No. 38)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 19.6% (No. 25)
  • Explosive run rate: 4.9% (No. 46)
  • PFF rush grade: 62.5 (No. 44)

Now, the Browns' 22nd-ranked offensive line in yards before contact per carry didn't exactly help matters, but the 29-year-old veteran had previously never averaged below *5* yards per carry in a season. Last year was easily the worst version of Chubb we've ever seen.

Joe Mixon 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Early Fantasy Life projections have Mixon leading the way over Chubb in terms of carries (208 vs. 102) and targets (43 vs. 7). It's also possible the likes of Woody Marks, Dameon Pierce, and/or Dare Ogunbowale are involved to some extent. Nobody should be debating Mixon's standing as the lead back; just realize a fall from his standing as the reigning RB10 in Utilization Score seems to be fully on the table.

Ultimately, I've had to slide Mixon down the ranks just a bit during the offseason due to the potential for more split usage than last year inside an offense that hasn't done enough to guarantee a meaningful upgrade in both the scoring and run-blocking departments. He's my RB20 behind guys who profile for similar roles in better offenses like Omarion Hampton and James Conner, while Chubb is more of a meh RB5 in the same tier as hopeful complements like Roschon Johnson and Rico Dowdle.

Is there a WR here other than Nico Collins worth overly prioritizing?

All Collins has done with Stroud under center is work as one of the game's single-best receivers both in fantasy and real life.

Collins in 2023-24:

  • PPR points per game: 17.4 (WR8)
  • Yards per route run: 3.0 (WR1)
  • Targets per route run: 27.1% (WR9)

Collins should be in any top-10 real-life WR argument and earns top-five consideration in fantasy land thanks to the potential to breeze past 150 targets in an offense led by a young QB who has at least flashed the ability to operate at an elite level. It's tough to watch his highlight mixtape and not see some level of semblance to the great Julio Jones.

As for the rest of the crew:

  • Christian Kirk: The 28-year-old veteran will presumably man the slot for a Texans offense expected to be without Tank Dell (leg) for the entirety of 2025. While 2023 (WR33) and 2024 (WR55) weren't as cool in fantasy land as 2022 (WR18), Kirk has demonstrated the ability to win both underneath and down the seam—he's the frontrunner to finish second on this offense in targets.
  • Jayden Higgins: Fantasy Life Draft Expert Thor Nystrom comped Higgins to Kenny Golladay before the draft, and he comes in as the WR5 in Dwain McFarland's Rookie WR Super Model. The plus-sized (6-foot-4, 214 pounds) speedster (4.47 in the 40) has plenty of tools, although some refinement as a route-runner is needed.
  • Jaylin Noel: Earned a Khalil Shakir comp from Thor, and is Dwain's WR10. Don't let Noel's small size (5-foot-10, 194 pounds) fool you: The man is capable of winning downfield and tied Patriots rookie WR Kyle Williams for the most receptions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield (14) of any Power 5 wide-out last season.

Nico Collins 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Collins is my overall WR4 and someone I am taking ahead of guys like Puka Nacua, Brian Thomas Jr., and Malik Nabers due to his relative lack of high-end target competition compared to the former two receivers and a superior QB situation relative to the latter stud. I would not be overly surprised if Collins finished as THE WR1—he's that good.

Meanwhile, Kirk looks a lot like this year's Darnell Mooney: An underrated veteran addition with the potential for triple-digit targets inside a good enough passing game to flirt with WR3 production in fantasy land at a far more affordable cost. I haven't gone out of my way to throw too many darts at either of the Iowa State rookies, but Higgins deserves the benefit of the doubt due to the likelihood that he earns the last starting spot in three-WR sets on the outside opposite of Nico.

Can Dalton Schultz get back to partying like it's 2023?

The ex-Cowboy veteran emerged as a quality low-end TE1 in fantasy land in 2023 on his way to a TE11 finish in PPR points per game. The encore was rough, as Schultz finished as just the TE28 behind guys like Will Dissly, Noah Fant, and Cole Kmet.

The advanced stats don't paint a very promising picture. ESPN's receiver ratings graded Schultz as the league's third-worst overall TE. PFF had him in the bottom 10. And the yards and targets per route run combo placed him with Tyler Conklin and Kmet as the worst in the league.

Now, the Texans' decision to give Schultz a three-year, $36 million extension last offseason means that we're still likely looking at the team's undisputed lead TE, but it's worth wondering if more meh performances will lead to younger options like Brevin Jordan, Cade Stover, and seventh-round rookie Luke Lachey (from Iowa!) getting more opportunities moving forward. 

Bottom line: A return to form from Stroud could certainly go hand-in-hand with a spike TD season from his trusty TE; just realize the team's willingness to restock the WR room probably means that the new passing game's strategy won't exactly revolve around their soon-to-be 29-year-old TE. That said, Schultz is essentially being forgotten in fantasy land (ADP TE26), making him a fine enough TE3 option in best ball/TEP leagues, even if I prefer guys like Mike Gesicki and Cade Otton at similar price points thanks to their likely superior passing games.

How does Derek Stingley Jr. stack up to the league's best corners?

While there are some rough reps on film with Stingley matching up against guys like Adonai Mitchell and even Kayshon Boutte, as a whole it's tough to deny the Texans' $90 million corner standing as one of the game's premier players at the position.

  • No outside corner allowed fewer yards per target (4.9) last season (Next-Gen Stats).
  • Stingley allowed the lowest passer rating among all corners in 2024.
  • His 45.3% completion rate allowed was the second-best mark in the league.

Throw in enough ball skills to rack up 10 interceptions over the last two seasons (tied for the fourth most in the NFL), and you have anyone's idea of a top-five corner.

PREDICTION FOR THE TEXANS 2025 SEASON

The Texans' 9.5 win total doesn't scream Super Bowl contender, but the seemingly continued lack of high-end competition inside the AFC South continues to make a potential third-straight divisional title firmly on the table.

Ultimately, I'm taking the over here mostly out of faith that there are enough blue-chip players on both sides of the football to win out over the rest of a division that combined for just 15 wins last season. My bold fantasy prediction: Nico Collins finishes as THE WR1 and becomes a staple inside any serious conversation surrounding the league's top-five players at the position.