IDP Fantasy Football Starts For Week 7: Alex Singleton, Jermaine Johnson, & More

We have a nice slate of 14 games this week with Buffalo, Jacksonville, LA (Chargers), and Washington on a bye. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, and Minnesota are back from their Week 6 byes; welcome back, Jacob Rodriguez, and taking a lyric from the song, “Welcome back. We always could spot a friend”.

I went through the offenses one at a time and asked the same questions I ask every week. For linebackers, how many tackles does this offense give to off-ball LBs, how often does it run, and what personnel does it use?

For defensive linemen, how often does this offense give up pressure, which spot on the line is giving it up, and who is the rusher actually lining up against? For defensive backs, how many tackles does this offense give to safeties and outside corners, and does the run rate and personnel keep them near the action?

Everything below is season data through the first six weeks, with last-three-week splits when they tell a different story. The defensive line picks lean harder on individual matchups than usual. I added a pressure-source file this week that splits each offense's pressured dropbacks by who gets charged with them, from left tackle through right tackle, plus the quarterback holding the ball. I flag the byes, the small samples, and the missing weeks as I go, and you should check Friday's reports before you lock anything in.

I’m going to do my best to not get burned by another D’Marco Jackson this week.

Linebackers To Start In IDP Fantasy Football For Week 7

Indianapolis gives off-ball linebackers 21.3 tackles per game, the most in the league, and Chicago is right behind at 21. Las Vegas is third at 20, and Arizona and the Rams tie at 19.5. Baltimore, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay sit at 18.8. The average among teams playing this week is 17.5. I started with that list, then narrowed it down by how often each offense runs, what personnel it uses, and how much of the defense's work a linebacker actually gets.

Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Arizona gives linebackers 19.5 tackles per game, 117 in six games, and the Cardinals are an offense that sends plays to the middle of the field. They throw short on 73.4% of their dropbacks on the season (71.3% over the last three weeks) and are using 13 personnel on 34.8% of their snaps over the last three weeks, the highest rate in the league (26.4% on the season). Arizona is running on 37.3% of its plays.

Denver plays zone on 70.4% of its snaps this season and 75% over the last three weeks, and it was in base on 44.3% of its snaps over the last three (37.9% on the season). Singleton is on the field as the green dot. His tackles have gone 15, 9, 8, 14, 7, and 13, resulting in a 15.9% tackle rate, with 31 solo and 3 tackles for loss. He's had 9 or more tackles in four of six games.

Last week he had 83 snaps (54 in coverage) and still finished with 13 tackles. His Week 3 was the other kind of game: 82 snaps with 51 in coverage and 8 tackles. There's some swing, and the floor has been 7.

Payton Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New Orleans Saints)

I'll start with the part that doesn't help him. New Orleans gives linebackers 16.8 tackles per game, below the 17.5 average, and it gives safeties 7.5 and defensive tackles 5.8, so this is not a funnel offense. What New Orleans does give you is a bunch of plays that finish at linebacker depth. The Saints run on 36.3% of their plays on the season and 39.4% over the last three weeks, and they used 12 or 13 personnel on 32.8% of their snaps in that stretch.

The run types help him too. New Orleans runs inside zone on 30.8% of its runs, against a 19.6% average among the teams playing, and it runs draws on 8.9%, against 1.7%. Those are between-the-tackles plays that end in front of an inside linebacker. The Saints' carries get stopped early, at 0.99 yards before contact per carry (0.73 over the last three weeks, against a 1.2 average), but they still pick up 2.8 to 3.05 yards after contact, and that's where a linebacker makes the tackle. The Saints are also getting heavier, with a 33.3% heavy-box rate over the last three weeks, up from 24.1% on the season. Outside zone (26.0%) goes to the edge and the secondary, and power runs are only 2.1% of their runs, so Wilson won't see many pulling guards.

They throw short on 68.9% of their dropbacks (67.3% over the last three). Pittsburgh plays zone on 82.4% of its snaps on the season and 79.1% over the last three, so those short throws are coming to Wilson's area.

Wilson has played 84.6% of Pittsburgh's defensive snaps, and his coverage snaps went 26, 15, 21, 24, 37, and 42, so he's staying on the field in sub packages now instead of coming off. Pittsburgh was in nickel on 62.7% of its snaps over the last three weeks.

He has an elite 16.3% tackle rate, the best of my four linebackers, with 27 solo tackles and 6 TFLs. He had 11 targets in Week 5 and 4 in Week 6, so teams are throwing at him, and he's finishing those plays.

Take the matchup for what it is. It's an average spot with a player whose role is growing. If you can start someone against Indianapolis or Chicago, I wouldn't blame you. I like Wilson because the rate and the snaps are pointing up.

Robert Spillane, New England Patriots (vs. Chicago Bears)

Chicago is the offense I want my linebackers facing. The Bears give off-ball linebackers 21.0 tackles per game, and they’re a funnel across the whole defense. They've run on 45.6% of their plays this season and 46.1% over the last three weeks. They also stack their tight ends. The Bears used 12 personnel on 34.8% of their snaps over the last three weeks and 13 personnel on another 20.0%, which means more than half of their plays have at least two tight ends. When they do throw, it's short. They throw short on 71.1% of their dropbacks on the season and 73.1% over the last three. The runs aren't going anywhere (3.70 yards per carry over the last three, with an EPA per rush of -0.19), so plays finish at the linebackers.

New England is in nickel on 80.3% of its snaps over the last three weeks and plays zone on 67.9% of them (62.0% on the season), so those short throws land in front of Spillane. He's on the field for 96.0% of New England's snaps.

I'll be straight about the trend. Spillane has 38 tackles on 334 snaps, an 11.4% tackle rate, and only 18 of them are solo. His solo tackles went 7, 3, 2, 5, 1, and 0, so his production is mostly assists, and the assists are what's slipping. It's not a role problem. His run-defense snaps went 21, 21, 25, 18, 16, and 27, and last week's 27 was the highest of his season. He has 1 tackle for loss all year. He also rushes a little, with 8 pressures and a sack on 33 pass-rush snaps. Christian Elliss has the same kind of line, 38 tackles on 331 snaps, so New England's linebacker tackles are split.

This is a bet on the funnel and the snaps, and not on the player. I'll take that bet.

Harold Perkins, Atlanta Falcons (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

Perkins is the one I'm picking on traits. He's the more athletic linebacker; he has pass-rush upside, and San Francisco is a good matchup for a linebacker. The 49ers give linebackers 18.8 tackles per game, tied for sixth among the teams playing, and they run on 44.5% of their plays (43.6% over the last three weeks) at 4.09 yards per carry with an EPA per rush of +0.02. They used 12 personnel on 23.8% of their snaps over the last three weeks and 11 personnel on only 30.4%, so they play bigger than most offenses. They throw short on only 61.2% of their dropbacks over the last three weeks, with an average depth of target of 8.55. This is more of a run-game matchup for a linebacker than a short-passing one.

Atlanta plays zone on 70.8% of its snaps over the last three weeks and was in nickel on 71.8% of them, with base on 26.3%. That caps what any Falcons linebacker can do, and Perkins is a part-time player; however, injuries to Divine Deablo and Kendal Daniels could have him on the field for a full-time role this week.

The pass-rush part is where I want to be careful. He has 20 pass-rush snaps all year with 3 pressures and half a sack. That's a small sample, and the matchup doesn't help it. San Francisco has allowed pressure on only 31.9% of its dropbacks, one of the lowest rates among the teams playing. So the case for Perkins is the run-game funnel and the athleticism. Any pass-rush production would be a bonus. Keep an eye on the injury reports for Deablo and Daniels.

More LB Starts On My Radar For Week 7 IDP Leagues

Eric Wilson (Minnesota Vikings) gets the offense that gives linebackers the most tackles, at 21.3 per game. Minnesota was in base on 62.5% of its snaps over the last three weeks, which keeps him on the field. What stops me is the production. He has 26 tackles on 247 snaps, and his tackles went 3, 7, 10, 4, and 2, so the role is fine, and the results are inconsistent. Minnesota is also coming off a bye.

Defensive Linemen To Start In IDP Fantasy Football For Week 7

The defensive line picks come from pressure first and who the rusher is facing second. The average pressure rate allowed among the teams playing this week is 39.2%. Philadelphia is the highest at 48.7%, Miami is at 48.1%, Carolina at 47.7%, Seattle at 46.4%, and New England at 46.2%. The Rams are the lowest in the league at 29.9%.

The table below splits each offense's pressured dropbacks by who gets charged with them. A pressure can be charged to more than one source, so the shares don't add up to 100%. The last column is the quarterback holding the ball, which matters for the Cleveland pick.

One note on sides. I took left and right ends from the Two Deep depth charts. A left defensive end faces the right tackle, and a right defensive end faces the left tackle; however, most of the time they’re moving around.

Jermaine Johnson, Tennessee Titans (vs. Cleveland Browns)

This is the best individual matchup on the board, and Deshaun Watson is a big part of the reason. Cleveland has allowed pressure on 42.8% of its dropbacks (95 on 222) and on 51.9% when the Browns get blitzed. Watson is charged with 26.6% of Cleveland's pressured dropbacks (21 of 79 in my pressure-source file), and Cleveland's sack rate is 10.8% with a scramble rate of 10.4%. Watson holds on to the ball, and that lets a rusher who is just average at winning his matchup get home late.

Johnson is the left defensive end on Tennessee's depth chart, so he faces the right tackle. The right tackle spot has been charged with 22.8% of Cleveland's pressured dropbacks (18 of 79), the most of any line spot. By player, Tytus Howard has allowed 11 pressures on 199 pass-block snaps (5.5%) with 2 sacks, which is a middle-of-the-pack number. Dawand Jones has taken 23 snaps at that spot with 5 pressures (21.7%). That's a small sample, but if Howard misses time, it's a big upgrade for Johnson. The left tackle, Spencer Fano, is at 14 pressures on 222 snaps (6.3%) with 3 sacks.

Tennessee blitzes on only 23.3% of its snaps (26.4% over the last three weeks) and rushes four on 74.4%, so Johnson is rushing with little help, and he'll get the individual rep. He's played 233 snaps with 137 on the pass rush, and he has 20 pressures (14.6%), 3 sacks, 16 tackles (6 solo), and 4 tackles for loss. His pressures went 1, 5, 3, 4, 2, and 5. Last week had 44 snaps, 33 pass-rush snaps, 5 pressures, and 2 sacks.

The floor is the weakness. Cleveland gives edge rushers 9.8 tackles per game, about average, and he has only 6 solo tackles all year. This is a pressure and sack play.

David Walker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Carolina Panthers)

Carolina has allowed pressure on 47.7% of its dropbacks (105 on 220 over five games), the third-highest rate among the teams playing, and 51.6% when the Panthers get blitzed. It's a left tackle problem. Walker lines up as the right defensive end, so he faces Rasheed Walker, who has allowed 25 pressures on 220 pass-block snaps (11.4%) with a sack. The left tackle spot has been charged with 25.3% of Carolina's pressured dropbacks (21 of 83), the highest of any spot on the line. Everyone else is in much better shape, with Robert Hunt at right guard at 6.4%, Luke Fortner at center at 6.4%, and Monroe Freeling at right tackle at 6.2%. Carolina also gives edge rushers 10.6 tackles per game, a little above the 10-tackle average, and runs on 40.4% of its plays over the last three weeks.

Tampa Bay blitzes on 42.2% of its snaps (40.5% over the last three weeks) and rushes four on 56.5%, so Walker is often one of five rushers and Carolina's tackle won't be able to focus on him. That helps the matchup.

Now the real concern. Walker is a small sample, and he's third on the depth chart at outside linebacker. So the matchup is as good as any on the board, and the role is the question. I think the matchup is good enough that he’ll pay off this week.

Nick Herbig, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New Orleans Saints)

New Orleans has allowed pressure on 40.6% of its dropbacks (104 on 256), just above average, but the way it gets there matters. The left tackle spot has been charged with 31.2% of the Saints' pressured dropbacks (25 of 80) and the right tackle spot 27.5% (22 of 80). The interior is the opposite, with the center at 2.0%, Cesar Ruiz at right guard at 2.5%, and David Edwards at left guard at 3.9%. New Orleans gives defensive tackles only 5.8 tackles per game, so this is an edge matchup.

Herbig lines up at left defensive end, so he faces Taliese Fuaga at right tackle. Fuaga has allowed 20 pressures on 256 pass-block snaps (7.8%) with 3 sacks, the second-weakest spot on the line. The weaker one is left tackle. Asim Richards is at 16 on 166 (9.6%) with 2 sacks, and Kelvin Banks has 7 on 88 (8%). If Pittsburgh moves Herbig to the other side, the matchup gets better.

Pittsburgh blitzes on 26% of its snaps (25.4% over the last three weeks) and rushes four on 70.9%. Herbig has 13 pressures on 85 pass-rush snaps (15.3%), 2 sacks, 17 tackles (9 solo) and 6 tackles for loss. His snaps went 37, 29, 27, 28, 37, and 43, and his pass-rush snaps went 8, 6, 11, 14, 21, and 25. So more of his work is on the pass rush, and the role is growing. Last week he had 5 pressures, 2 sacks, 5 tackles, and 3 tackles for loss. He had 0 pressures on 21 pass-rush snaps in Week 5, though, so the production has swung.

He's a backup left outside linebacker behind T.J. Watt, so his snaps come from rotation. That's the risk; however, his role is rising. New Orleans gives edge rushers 9.8 tackles per game, which is about average. I’m betting on the talent and pass rush upside here.

Kingsley Enagbare, New York Jets (vs. Miami Dolphins)

Miami has allowed pressure on 48.1% of its dropbacks (78 on 162 over five games), and 54.2% when the Dolphins get blitzed. The right tackle spot is the problem, and The Two Deep lists Enagbare as the starting left outside linebacker, so he faces it. Austin Jackson has allowed 16 pressures on 162 pass-block snaps (9.9%) with 2 sacks, and the right tackle spot has taken 33.9% of Miami's pressured dropbacks (19 of 56 in my pressure-source file). Miami also has a high scramble rate at 11.1% and a sack rate of 8.6%. The left tackle, Patrick Paul, is at 6.8% with 3 sacks, so the right side of Miami's line is the one to attack, and Enagbare is on it.

The Jets blitzed on 45.2% of their snaps over the last three weeks (40.1% on the season) and rushed four on only 46.1%. Miami runs on 46.5% of its plays over the last three weeks, the highest rate in the league, at 6.5 yards per carry with an EPA per rush of +0.23. That keeps Enagbare in the run game. His run-defense snaps went 5, 11, 13, 15 and 23, and he's played 51 snaps in each of the last two weeks.

Enagbare has 17 pressures on 124 pass-rush snaps (13.7%), 2 sacks, 16 tackles (10 solo) and 4 TFLs in five games. His pressures went 5, 4, 2, 5, and 1, so last week's 1 is the number I want to talk about. He had 6 tackles that game, more than he's had in any other week. Miami gives edge rushers 8.6 tackles per game, below the 10.0 average, so his floor does have a bit of a lid on it. But as Michael Jordan says, “the ceiling is the roof.”

More DL Starts On My Radar For Week 7 IDP

Quinnen Williams (Dallas Cowboys) gets Philadelphia, the highest pressure rate allowed among the teams playing at 48.7%, and 59.3% when the Eagles get blitzed. It's an interior matchup. Jake Majors at center has allowed 10 pressures on 90 pass-block snaps (11.1%), and Landon Dickerson at left guard is at 12.1% on 33 snaps. Williams has 13 pressures on 104 pass-rush snaps (12.5%), 2 sacks, and 5 TFLs. Philadelphia gives defensive tackles only 5 tackles per game, so it's a pressure play.

Defensive Backs To Start In Week 7 IDP Fantasy Football Leagues

For defensive backs, I start with tackles allowed to safeties and outside corners. The average among the teams playing this week is 9.1 per game to safeties and 8.6 to outside corners. Chicago leads at 12.0 for safeties, with the Rams at 11.5, Seattle at 11.2, and Minnesota at 11. Houston and San Francisco are next at 10.7. For outside corners, Detroit and Cincinnati lead at 11.0, with New Orleans, the Rams, and Dallas at 10.5.

I also have alignment data through Week 6 for each of these four. A safety who spends time in the box is closer to the run game, and a deep safety usually tackles after the play has gotten past the first level. Keisean Nixon is a corner, and he plays outside on 92.0% of his snaps, so his table row uses the outside corner number.

Jeremy Chinn, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

The Rams give safeties 11.5 tackles per game, 69 in six games, and they give outside corners 10.5 on top of that. Los Angeles has run on only 31.3% of its plays over the last three weeks (34.6% on the season) at 4.04 yards per carry. They used 11 personnel on 63.0% of their snaps over the last three and threw short on 72.1% of their dropbacks. That's a lot of short completions, and the tackles come after the catch.

I'll point out the one part that doesn't fit. Las Vegas plays zone on 71.4% of its snaps on the season, and over the last three weeks that dropped to 61.7% with man at 29.9%. So the short-throw argument is less clean for Chinn than it would be on a zone-heavy defense. What I like is the usage. He's played 99.7% of Las Vegas' snaps: 50, 63, 72, 58, 66, and 64, and his tackles have gone 5, 4, 8, 5, 7, and 10. That's 39 tackles on 373 snaps, a 10.5 tackle rate, and 31 of them are solo. His last game was 10 tackles with 9 solo.

His alignment helps. Chinn lines up in the box on 28.3% of his snaps, at deep safety on 47.2%, at the edge on 10.2%, and in the slot on 7.5%. His weekly box rates went 40.0%, 30.6%, 33.3%, 36.8%, 10.6%, and 45.3%, so the role has some movement. What’s interesting to note: 51.2% of his tackles have come from the deep role. He’s playing the safety role well and providing support in the defensive backfield.

Keisean Nixon, Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)

Nixon is the one corner in this group, so the case is different. Detroit gives outside corners 11 tackles per game over five games, tied with Cincinnati for the most among the teams playing, and the average is 8.6. Detroit also gives safeties 10. The Lions run on 35.3% of their plays over the last three weeks and used 12 personnel on 36.1% of their snaps. They threw short on 62.5% of their dropbacks over the last three weeks (67.0% on the season) with an average depth of target of 9.61, so there are more throws downfield than usual. Green Bay plays zone on 73.4% of its snaps over the last three weeks (78.1% on the season) and was in nickel on 86.4%.

Corners get tackles when the ball is thrown their way, and they come up to finish. Nixon is getting plenty of those chances. He's played 97.7% of Green Bay's snaps, 62, 72, 66, 61, 60, and 71, and he's been targeted 39 times, including 12 last week. His tackles have gone 5, 7, 6, 7, 6, and 8. That's 39 tackles on 392 snaps, a 9.9 tackle rate, with 27 solo. Last week's 8 tackles were all solo, on 71 snaps with 57 in coverage. He's had at least 5 tackles in every game.

He has no tackles for loss and no pass-rush work, so there's no splash upside here. This is a floor pick that comes from volume. If you need a higher ceiling at DB, look at the safeties. If you want a corner who's tackling every week against a defense that sends its outside receivers his way, this is the one.

Chamarri Conner, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Seattle Seahawks)

Seattle gives safeties 11.2 tackles per game, 67 in six games, the third most in the league, and it gives edge rushers 11.5. The Seahawks run on 42.0% of their plays on the season (40.5% over the last three weeks) and average 4.0 yards per carry in that stretch, with an EPA per rush of -0.22. They used 12 personnel on 26.5% of their snaps over the last three weeks and threw short on 65.6% of their dropbacks, with an average depth of target of 8.25. Kansas City plays zone on 74.2% of its snaps over the last three (68.3% on the season) and has been in dime on 23.4% of them (17.6% on the season), so it puts extra defensive backs on the field.

The risk is the sample. My data has Conner in Weeks 4 and 6 only, with 122 snaps. He played 59 and 63 snaps, with tackles of 6 and 4, and that's 10 tackles (7 solo) with a rate of 8.2. In Week 6, he was on the field for every Kansas City defensive snap, and Alohi Gilman (32) and Jaden Hicks (31) split the other safety spot. He lines up in the box on 17.4% of his snaps, at deep safety on 43.8% and in the slot on 13.2%. Last week's box rate was 15.9% with 19.0% in the slot. He has 1 pressure and a sack on 1 pass-rush snap, and he's been targeted 4 times.

He’s finally coming back from injury.

Kamren Curl, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

I'll lead with what's wrong with the matchup. Las Vegas gives safeties 8.8 tackles per game, below the 9.1 average. The Raiders run on only 32.1% of their plays over the last three weeks, at 2.73 yards per carry with an EPA per rush of -0.28, and they throw short on 65.9% of their dropbacks with an average depth of target of 8.12. This is not a funnel for safeties. They do give linebackers 20.0 and outside corners 10.2, and they used 12 personnel on 59.7% of their snaps over the last three weeks, which puts two tight ends on the field.

The reason Curl is here is how he's being used. He's played 90.4% of Los Angeles' snaps: 30, 55, 61, 58, 58, and 70. His box rate has climbed from 14.1% in Week 1 to 27.3%, 18.3%, 34.5%, 43.9%, and then 50.0% last week, and his tackles went 3, 4, 3, 4, 8, and 8. That's 30 tackles on 332 snaps, a 9.0 tackle rate, with 17 solo. For the season, he's in the box on 33.4% of his snaps, at deep safety on 52.3% and in the slot on 7.6%. The tackles moved with the box rate. When he's closer to the line, he gets tackles. In fact, 50% of his tackles occurred when in the box.

Los Angeles was in dime on 49.7% of its snaps over the last three weeks (43.1% on the season) and plays zone on 61.1% with man on 33.7%. In dime, the safeties are in the middle of everything, and that's where Curl's work comes from. Quentin Lake is the other Rams safety, with 42 tackles on 367 snaps.

This is the lowest-floor matchup of my four, and the pick is built on the usage trend.

More Defensive Backs On My Radar To Start In Week 7 IDP Lineups

A.J. Haulcy (Indianapolis Colts) gets Minnesota, which gives safeties 11.0 per game. He has 27 tackles on 275 snaps (9.8 per 100) and had 6 tackles in each of his last two games. He played 39 snaps last week, though, so the snaps are what I'd watch.