Mike Evans Fantasy Football Outlook For 2026: The Reward Is Worth The Risk

You know, I didn’t think it was actually possible for Mike Evans to play for any team other than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

But here we are. And, yeah. Yeah, it’s still pretty weird.

Evans set the foundation for a sure-fire Hall-of-Fame career in Tampa Bay, but 176 games, 866 catches, 108 touchdowns and 11 1,000-yard seasons later, the 33-year-old wideout signed with San Francisco this offseason. Again, weird. Given his age and struggles with both injury and efficiency this past season, many are wondering just how much Evans has left. And I’ll admit it. The idea of Evans, who has dealt with hamstring issues over the past few seasons, is now employed by the most injury-prone team in NFL history, is a little unsettling, even if the correlation is entirely unrelated. But even at this stage of his career, Evans has a lot to offer both the 49ers and fantasy football rosters.

Mike Evans Fantasy Football Outlook Ahead Of 2026

A Shortened 2025

Hamstring and shoulder injuries limited Evans to just eight games this past season. It was the fifth consecutive season Evans has dealt with some level of hamstring issue. And when he was on the field, Evans wasn’t the same dominant wideout we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. Among qualified receivers, Evans ranked:

49th in YPRR (1.62)
52nd in YPC (12.3)
36th in FP/RT (0.38)
45th in yards/team pass attempt (1.34)

I’m sure his drop in efficiency had something to do with two serious injuries he battled back from, though you surely would have liked to see more promising metrics. He returned in Week 15, averaging 7.5 targets, 4.0 receptions, 57 yards and 12.7 PPR PPG. That stretch of games coincided with Baker Mayfield’s shoulder injury, which really affected his accuracy. During those weeks, just 61% of Evans’ targets were deemed catchable, which ranked 35th among receivers with at least 100 routes.

But He’s Old!

Look, I get it. And I’m not naive to the fact that history is not exactly on his side.

Evans will be 33 when the season starts, and we simply have not seen many 33-year-old wideouts post strong fantasy numbers. Since 2010, only 10 receivers who turned 33 before the start of the year averaged double-digit fantasy points per game during that season. We did see a few instances where a receiver at that age posted a top-15 fantasy season, so it isn’t all gloom and doom for Evans. In 2019, Julian Edelman averaged 16 PPR PPG, good for WR9 in fantasy. And back in 2016, Larry Fitzgerald finished as the WR12, averaging 15.2 points per game.

Edelman and Fitzgerald are especially interesting examples because both players didn’t win off pure speed, which likely helped them stay relevant for longer. Of course, they are different archetypes, doing a ton of their damage from the slot. But it’s important to remember that Fitzgerald wasn't always a slot receiver. After primarily playing out wide for years, Fitzgerald moved inside as a large slot receiver under Bruce Arians. And while I don’t expect a sudden 50-60% slot rate, perhaps Evans, who has operated from the slot just 22.6% of the time since 2022, can move inside more in San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan.

He didn’t qualify because he didn’t turn 33 until December of last year, but we did just see Davante Adams still showcase plenty of fantasy upside at his age. Adams, in his first season with a new, high-powered offense with an elite playcaller (see where I’m going here?), averaged 15.9 PPR PPG, good for WR8. Sure, Adams did a lot of his damage on the back of touchdowns, scoring 14 times, while posting the most end zone targets in a season (28) since they were first tracked. But I think it’s safe to say that Evans (double-digit touchdowns in 6-of-12 seasons) can make reservations for six early and often.

Especially in this offense.

The Fit With San Francisco

The “X” receiver in a Kyle Shanahan offense is a pretty fantasy-friendly role. We’ve seen Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, Santana Moss and Pierre Garcon all thrive in this scheme. Aiyuk is the latest example, looking like one of the league’s breakout receivers under Shanahan from 2022-2023. During that stretch, Aiyuk averaged 110 targets, 76.5 receptions, 1,178.5 receiving yards and 7.5 touchdowns, ranking as fantasy’s WR19 on a PPG basis.

Evans’ age cannot be overlooked and is likely going to be the main detractor for fantasy drafters this summer. But if there were ever an offense that would make things easier for an older wide receiver, it would be this one. For most of his career, Evans has won by overpowering defenders, both down the field and in the red zone. And as great as he was at that, rarely was he schemed up more money looks in an offense.

Since TruMedia started charting route frequency in 2020, Evans ranks 46th among 199 receivers with at least 500 routes in go-route percentage (24.4%). During that span, Evans also ranks eighth in total go routes (122) and fourth in targets (64). As a result, he averaged 16 contested targets per season. Evans was mainly deployed on the perimeter and asked to win one-on-one matchups, and in San Francisco, there will certainly be plenty of instances where he’s asked to do it again. However, we should see more in-breaking routes in Shanahan’s system, which are much more fantasy-friendly targets.

During Aiyuk’s impressive 2022-23 run, in and crossing routes made up about 25% of his usage. And over his final two years in San Francisco, Jauan Jennings ran in-breaking routes at nearly the same rate. Evans, meanwhile, has run those exact routes just 16.6% of the time over the past six years. But in that span, he is averaging 3.47 yards per route run with a 31.6% TPRR and 0.65 fantasy points per route on in routes in particular.

How about we get him some more targets over the middle of the field? Don’t get me wrong. Evans is still going to see plenty of contested targets down the field. But they’ll be paired with more looks over the middle of the field in San Francisco’s timing-based passing attack.

Speaking of looks, Evans will have every opportunity to see a ton. Yes, Christian McCaffrey is going to get his, but the change in personnel could stand to benefit Evans. San Francisco has typically deployed two-wide sets, while using 21 personnel at the highest rate in football a season ago (37%). That’ll be an interesting shift for Evans, who was primarily part of three-wide sets for much of his time in Tampa Bay. Over the past six seasons, here is where the Bucs have ranked in 11 personnel usage:

69% (2nd)
71% (8th)
70% (10th)
72% (6th)
65% (9th)
56% (18th)

San Francisco, meanwhile, has averaged an 11-personnel rate of just 44% during that time frame. And while everyone is talking about Evans age and injury risk, he’s also competing for targets with a 33-year-old tight end coming off an Achilles tear and a wideout in Ricky Pearsall who hasn’t exactly been a model of health so far in his career.

Alright. Let’s talk about touchdowns.

A lot of the appeal with Evans, especially at his age, is touchdown scoring. Double-digit touchdown seasons aren’t new to him, and he could add one more to his resume in San Francisco. We know this is an elite offense with a quarterback in Brock Purdy who ranks second in touchdown rate since being drafted in 2022 (6.2%). So what’s the touchdown upside for Evans this season?

Just ask Jauan Jennings.

Over his final two seasons in San Francisco, Jennings operated as the team’s WR1. Since 2024, Jennings ranks ninth among all wideouts in touchdown grabs (15), despite ranking 51st in games played. During that span, Jennings averaged 0.68 end zone targets per game (17th), while his 105.8 PPR points from inside the red zone are the fifth-most among all receivers.

Our fantasy football projections have Evans penciled in for 8.4 touchdowns this year, the sixth-most in the NFL. And we’ve seen him record double-digit scores in four of the last five seasons he’s played the majority of contests. The Davante Adams touchdown comparisons have been thrown around left and right, but it’s difficult not to see it.

The Bottom Line - Draft Mike Evans In 2026 Fantasy Football

Look, I’d be lying if I said that drafting Evans didn’t come with some risk. History certainly isn’t on his side, especially given his track record of soft tissue injuries. Some of that is baked into his ADP, as he’s barely being drafted as a WR2, coming off the board towards the end of Round 4. Putting all your chips in on an aging wideout coming off an injury-plagued season is a bit of a gamble. And if he landed almost anywhere else, I’d probably be full-fading Evans.

But damn it, Shanahan has gotten the best of his “X” receivers over the years. And I think Evans has one more great fantasy season left in him.

Players Mentioned in this Article

MikeEvans
WRSF
PPG
8.7
Proj
185.4

Published Jul 19, 2026, 4:00 AM ET