QB Rankings Downgrades For Week 2 Fantasy Football: Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye & More

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Texans and Vikings last year were two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Texans: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.126)
• Vikings: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-5.4)

Here be dragons.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) at Texans: There's actually a LOT to like about Burrow's situational spot. For his career, he has been awesome outside division (39-16-1 ATS, 35.2% ROI), on the road (30-14 ATS, 30.7% ROI), and indoors (6-1 ATS, 62.5% ROI, per Action Network). And Burrow in Week 1 wasn't exactly his typical subpar season-opener self (71.4% completion rate, 254 yards passing) in a 33-27 win. But … of course … he's now facing the Texans, who are playing their second straight home game to open the year. Nah, brah.

Caleb Williams (Bears) vs. Vikings: Williams last week was easily the No. 1 QB (37.3 fantasy points on 269 yards, two TDs passing plus 10-65-2 rushing), but he had only modest success in two games against the Vikings last year (55.2% completion rate, 6.3 AY/A). Plus, with only 10 targets combined to WRs Rome Odunze and Luther Burden and TE Colston Loveland in Week 1, I don't trust that what we saw out of the Bears offense (59 points) is anywhere close to sustainable or representative of who they are. Phrased differently: I think they bullied a bad Panthers defense. If they do it again this week against the Vikings defense, then I'll strongly reevaluate my position.

Week 2 Scoring Downgrades In My QB Rankings: Drake Maye vs. Steelers & Trevor Lawrence at Broncos

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the QB."

Entering the season, I had the Patriots projected with the No. 7 offense; the Jaguars, No. 12. But this week the Pats are No. 13 in implied team total (24 points), and the Jags are No. 22 (20.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Drake Maye (Patriots) vs. Steelers: Maye has a four-day rest-and-preparation advantage, but he was dreadful in the season opener (1.9 AY/A), No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (ankle, IR) is out, and playmaking No. 2 RB TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is uncertain after missing Week 1. The Pats do have a boosted home-field advantage against the Steelers, who are outside the division and on turf (vs. grass), but I still have an abundance of respect for their defense, led by EDGE T.J. Watt, DT Cameron Heyward, and S/CB Jalen Ramsey. 

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) at Broncos: I'll be honest … this downgrade is based more on my gut than numbers. Lawrence dominated in Week 1 (245 yards, four TDs, 78.3% completion rate, 14.1 AY/A). And against the Broncos last year in Week 16, Lawrence was the No. 1 fantasy QB (31.2 points on 279 yards, three TDs passing plus 6-20-1 rushing) in a 34-20 road win. Even so, I'm skeptical Lawrence can do it again. It's not as if I'm benching him in Guillotine Leagues™, but last year the Broncos were No. 1 in defensive dropback SR (38.9%), and over the past five years they've had the No. 2 home-field advantage (+7.42, per NFElo). Right now the Jags offense looks like a rocket ship, but eventually gravity has its way.

Week 2 Offensive Injury Downgrades: Lamar Jackson vs. Saints & Daniel Jones vs. Ravens

Here are a couple QBs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens) vs. Saints: Before the season, I predicted that the Ravens would miss the playoffs. It was a "bold call," but even so, I already hate myself. And I'm sure that listing Jackson in this section won't do anything to help my street cred. So to be clear: I'm not saying you should bench Jackson. He was awesome last week (324 yards, one TD passing plus 7-40-1 rushing). I'm simply noting that this week he might be without WRs Zay Flowers (hamstring), Devontez Walker (groin), and Ja'Kobi Lane (wrist). Given that, it would be reasonable for us to have slightly diminished expectations.

Cooper Rush (Falcons) vs. Panthers: Rush could draw another start in Week 2 if QBs Michael Penix (knee) and Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) remain sidelined. He's at home indoors and facing the Panthers, who just gave up 59 points to the Bears. That might be enough to tempt a desperate superflex manager. Don't give in. Rush was terrible last week (3.3 AY/A), he could be without four-time Pro Bowl RG Chris Lindstrom (concussion), and the Falcons' home-field advantage is cut in half against the Panthers, who play in division, on turf, and indoors.

Situational Downgrades In Week 2 QB Rankings: Jared Goff at Bills & Tyler Shough at Ravens 

In general, I want to avoid QBs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Jared Goff (Lions) at Bills: Goff didn't look like his fully functional self last week in his first game with OC Drew Petzing (6.3 AY/A), and now he's going on the road, where the Lions are granting maximal home-field advantage to the Bills as non-conference opponents on grass (vs. turf) and outdoors (vs. indoors). And maybe I should've led with that last point. It's Goff outdoors. That's enough. 

Tyler Shough (Saints) at Ravens: One of my 2026 fantasy favorites, Shough balled out last year as a second-round rookie after the Week 11 bye (256.9 passing yards, 25.0 rushing yards per game), and then in Week 1 he piled on the counting stats (410 yards, three TDs passing). But this week the Saints are coming off a one-point overtime loss; they're on the road for a second straight week, and they're yielding maximal home-field advantage to the Ravens as non-conference opponents on grass (vs. turf) and outdoors (vs. indoors). Not ideal.

Notes

Week 2 Favorites & Fades: Here's the rest of the pieces.

• Introduction
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Defensive Matchups: Since the season is just one week old, I still rely primarily on prior defensive data.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)