Rating the 2026 NFL Rookie Running Backs: Post-NFL Draft Rookie Super Model Ratings

Have you ever wondered how NFL Draft prospects stack up across multiple factors—draft pick, collegiate production and film? Yeah, me too.

That's why I built the Rookie Super Model. And it has a strong track record compared to NFL Draft pick alone. Using well-researched inputs that matter for RB prospects, we rate and tier the top 2026 running backs, with player comps and historical fantasy hit rates included.

Analysis here focuses on the bottom line, but full write-ups are linked throughout and accessible via the NFL Draft Guide under the Analysis tab. These full individual write-ups will be updated to account for landing spots over the next week and a half.

What Is The RB Rookie Super Model?

New to the Rookie Super Model? The introductory guide covers all inputs by position and includes a glossary of any unfamiliar terms. We also have a quick-reference glossary at the end of this article. Returning Super Model lovers, welcome to Year 4!

In short, the model calculates a rating between 50 and 100 based on what has historically mattered most for NFL production. It accounts for age, strength of schedule, program quality and teammates to normalize comparisons.

Don't fixate on exact grades—focus on tiers and range of outcomes. That's how you find over- and underpriced assets.

Below is a review of how RB prospects fared based on Rookie Super Model rating. For example, 100% of the RBs rated between 90 and 100 achieved a top-six PPR finish by Year 3 versus 71% for TEs rated 80 to 89.

How Do The 2026 RB Prospects Compare To Previous Years?

Before we dive into the prospects, let's zoom out and assess the overall strength of this RB class. To do this, I have broken the prospects into three buckets:

Super Model Rating: 90 to 100 (elite prospects)
Super Model Rating: 80 to 89 (great prospects)
Super Model Rating: 70 to 79 (good prospects)

The data below shows the number of elite, great, and good prospects from each class since 2017:

2017: 2, 2, 2 (6)
2018: 1, 0, 8 (9)
2019: 0, 0, 5 (5)
2020: 0, 2, 6 (8)
2021: 0, 2, 4 (6)
2022: 0, 1, 4 (5)
2023: 0, 2, 3 (5)
2024: 0, 0, 3 (3)
2025: 1, 1, 8 (10)
2026: 1, 0, 2 (3)

The 2026 RB class offers a crown jewel at the top with Jeremiyah Love notching the fifth-highest Super Model Rating ever, but it is otherwise lackluster, with only three players rating 70 or higher. And the two other players are in the low 70s. From a depth perspective, this prospect class ties for the worst since 2017.

2026 RB Rookie Super Model Ratings And Tiers

It's time to dive into the prospects, y'all!

NOTE: The following are the Rookie Super Model's rankings, not my personal rookie rankings. You can access my personal fantasy football rookie rankings here.

Tier 1: Every-Down RBs with High-End RB1 Upside

Jeremiyah Love | Cardinals

Super Model Rating: 91.8 (5th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 3
Rookie Age: 21.3
Height: 72 inches
Weight: 212 pounds
Jeremiyah Love Prospect Profile

Fantasy Outlook

There have been five RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating of 87 or higher since 2017, with 100% delivering a top-six finish by Year 3. The cohort averaged 19.8 fantasy points over their first three seasons.

Top-six finishes: 100%
Top-12 finishes: 100%
Top-24 finishes: 100%
Top-36 finishes: 100%

Skill set: Every-Down RB.

Love's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model rates Love as an early Round 1 NFL Draft pick. His Production Rating isn't as strong as past top-12 picks, but he improved every season and notched strong numbers at a young age. He is electric with the ball in his hands and has the size-speed combo to play every down and create field-flipping plays. His Film Rating suggests unrealized upside as a receiver, which could send him to the superstar stratosphere in fantasy football. Love is a high-end RB1 long-term, even on an offense with short-term QB questions like the Cardinals.

Jeremiyah Love complete Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile.

Tier 2: Early-Down RBs → RB3s with RB2 Upside

Jadarian Price | Seahawks

Super Model Rating: 72.4 (46th)
Draft Pick: 32
Rookie Age: 22.9
Height: 71 inches
Weight: 203 pounds
Jadarian Price Prospect Profile

Fantasy Outlook

There have been 67 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 67 and 77 since 2017, with 47% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 4%
Top-12 finishes: 10%
Top-24 finishes: 31%
Top-36 finishes: 49%

Skill set: Early-Down RB.

Price's closest Super Model comps:

Miles Sanders
Damien Harris
Brian Robinson Jr.

Nerd Note: With the Rookie Super Model, I keep track of the history of deltas between the model and draft pick rank to help identify over- and under-rated prospects. Since 2017, nine top-100 NFL Draft picks have ranked 20+ spots lower in the model rank than their draft pick. Only one—Miles Sanders—went on to produce a top-24 season, and he had three.

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Price as overrated—his Production Rating (59) hurts him, though context matters when playing alongside Jeremiyah Love. This is a bet on his Film Rating (81), trusting his instincts and vision to carry him in Seattle's early-down role. With Kenneth Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet set to miss significant time in 2026, the opportunity is real. He must improve as a receiver and pass blocker to unlock an every-down role long-term. Price profiles as a borderline RB3, but could deliver immediate RB2 value in Seattle while Charbonnet is sidelined.

Jadarian Price complete Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile.

Tier 3: Potential Every-Down RBs → RB4 with RB2-RB3 Upside

Jonah Coleman | Broncos

Super Model Rating: 70 (54th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 108
Rookie Age: 23
Height: 68 inches
Weight: 220 pounds
Jonah Coleman Prospect Profile

Fantasy Outlook

With Coleman, I am going to give him a slightly higher range for this analysis, given how his PCL injury clearly impacted his final season.

There have been 74 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 66 and 76 since 2017, with 41% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 4%
Top-12 finishes: 8%
Top-24 finishes: 27%
Top-36 finishes: 41%

Skill set: Potential Every-Down RB.

Coleman's closest Super Model comps:

Zach Charbonnet
Chuba Hubbard
Royce Freeman

Bottom line: Coleman rates as a Round 3 pick in the Rookie Super Model. He delivered solid production in his first three seasons before a strong Year 4 ended with a PCL injury. He has a three-down skill set, but his low drop and fumble rates and strong pass-pro skills could quickly make him a coach's pet. Coleman has a shot to back up J.K. Dobbins and step in alongside RJ Harvey—who also posted a 70 Rookie Super Model Rating—if injury strikes. Long-term, he's Harvey's equal and has a shot at challenging for the team's RB1 role.

Jonah Coleman complete Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile.

Nicholas Singleton | Penn State

Super Model Rating: 68.8 (73rd since 2017)
Draft Pick: 165
Rookie Age: 22.7
Height: 72 inches
Weight: 219 pounds
Nicholas Singleton Prospect Profile

Fantasy Outlook

For Singleton's range-of-outcomes analysis, we will give him a one-point bump in the model (70) for his speed, since that is one of his biggest positives, and his Senior Bowl injury kept him from running at the NFL Scouting Combine.

There have been 73 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 66 and 76 since 2017, with 38% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 5%
Top-12 finishes: 9%
Top-24 finishes: 27%
Top-36 finishes: 38%

Skill set: Potential Every-down RB.

Singleton's closest Super Model comps:

Rhamondre Stevenson
DJ Giddens
Zach Evans

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Singleton as an early-Day 3 pick. A time-share with Kaytron Allen clouds his ceiling, but he's a better receiver than Mike Washington and has the size-speed combo NFL teams covet. He must improve his feel for the game to unlock his potential. In Tennessee, he has a shot at a growing Year 1 role, and with Tony Pollard's contract expiring after 2026, the long-term door is open. His low draft capital, however, leaves him vulnerable to getting leapfrogged by a higher pick next year. Singleton is a boom-bust RB4 with RB2-RB3 upside.

Nicholas Singleton complete Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile.

Tier 4: RB5s with RB3 Upside

Mike Washington Jr. | Raiders

Super Model Rating: 66.9 (104th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 122
Rookie Age: 23.2
Height: 73 inches
Weight: 223 pounds
Mike Washington Jr. Prospect Profile

Fantasy Outlook

There have been 107 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 62 and 72 since 2017, with 23% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 3%
Top-12 finishes: 6%
Top-24 finishes: 16%
Top-36 finishes: 26%

Skill set: Early-Down RB.

Washington's closest Super Model comps:

Jaylen Wright
Isaac Guerendo
Israel Abanikanda

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Washington as a Day 3 pick. His 64 Production Rating reflects a slow start, but he flashed in Year 5 at Arkansas and exploded at the Combine—running a 4.33 40-yard dash at 211 pounds for a 126.9 Speed Score (99th percentile). His profile points toward limited passing-game upside, and he must clean up ball security and pass blocking to stay in good standing. As the RB2 to Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas, he's handcuff-status for now—an RB5 with RB3 long-term upside.

Mike Washington Jr. complete Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile.

Kaelon Black | 49ers

Super Model Rating: 66.8 (105th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 90
Rookie Age: 24.9
Height: 69 inches
Weight: 211 pounds

Fantasy Outlook

There have been 107 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 62 and 72 since 2017, with 23% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 3%
Top-12 finishes: 6%
Top-24 finishes: 16%
Top-36 finishes: 26%

Skill set: Early-Down RB.

Black's closest Super Model comps:

Blake Corum
Ray Davis
Ke'Shawn Vaughn

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Black as a Day 3 pick, but he has a shot at the RB2 role behind Christian McCaffrey as soon as 2026. He never dominated a backfield in college, and Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have a short leash history with RBs drafted in this range—see Tyrion Davis-Price (pick 93) and Trey Sermon (pick 88). Still, Blake Corum had a similar Production Rating (64) and Year 1 age (23.8) and locked down the RB2 role in LA. Black is an RB5 with RB3 long-term upside. As Lloyd Christmas would say: So you're telling me there's a chance!

Emmett Johnson | Chiefs

Super Model Rating: 66.7 (106th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 161
Rookie Age: 22.9
Height: 70 inches
Weight: 205 pounds
Emmett Johnson Prospect Profile

Fantasy Outlook

There have been 107 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 62 and 72 since 2017, with 23% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 3%
Top-12 finishes: 6%
Top-24 finishes: 16%
Top-36 finishes: 26%

Skill set: Potential Every-Down RB.

Johnson's closest Super Model comps:

Tyjae Spears
Michael Carter
Devin Singletary

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Johnson as a Day 3 pick. He was electric in Year 4 but a late bloomer, keeping his Production Rating in check. One of the better receiving backs in this class, he must clean up his pass-blocking to earn consistent passing-down work. If he improves as a blocker, he could add value in a Chiefs backfield headed by Kenneth Walker—and has the skill set to handle 65% of snaps if Walker misses time. Johnson is an RB5 with RB3 upside, which closely aligns with his comp group.

Emmett Johnson complete Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile.

Tier 5: RB6s with RB4 Upside

Seth McGowan | Colts

Super Model Rating: 66.3 (117th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 237
Rookie Age: 24.3
Height: 72 inches
Weight: 223 pounds
Seth McGowan Prospect Profile

Fantasy Outlook

There have been 122 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 61 and 71 since 2017, with 20% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 2%
Top-12 finishes: 5%
Top-24 finishes: 13%
Top-36 finishes: 20%

Skill set: Potential Every-Down RB.

McGowan's closest Super Model comps:

DJ Giddens
John Kelly
Kylin Hill

Bottom line: McGowan profiles as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick in the Rookie Super Model. The model doesn't count his three seasons missed due to legal issues, but he never notched a high-end season. He flashed some ability in the passing game, but concerns about his pass blocking and drops could neutralize that aspect of his profile. Still, if he improves in those areas, he theoretically has three-down ability. McGowan will battle one of his closest comps—DJ Giddens—for the RB2 role behind Jonathan Taylor. Long-term, he is an RB5 with RB4 Upside.

Seth McGowan complete Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile.

Kaytron Allen | Commanders

Super Model Rating: 68 (94th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 110
Rookie Age: 23.7
Height: 71 inches
Weight: 216 pounds
Kaytron Allen Prospect Profile

Fantasy Outlook

There have been 136 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 60 and 70 since 2017, with 18% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 1%
Top-12 finishes: 4%
Top-24 finishes: 10%
Top-36 finishes: 18%

Skill set: Early-Down RB.

Allen's closest Super Model comps:

Tyler Allgeier
Kevin Harris
Tahj Brooks

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Allen as a Day 3 pick, though it may be underestimating his competition with Nicholas Singleton at Penn State. His scheme versatility in gap or zone schemes helps his floor, but limited receiving upside is a real concern for fantasy. Still, he landed with the Commanders, where he can challenge Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White for opportunities. The model has him as an RB5 with RB4 upside—but short-term RB2 upside is theoretically on the table in Washington, which is why he ranks as my RB5 in rookie rankings.

Kaytron Allen complete Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile.

Eli Hedienreich | Steelers

Super Model Rating: 65.1 (137th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 230
Rookie Age: 23.1
Height: 72 inches
Weight: 198 pounds

Fantasy Outlook

There have been 136 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 60 and 70 since 2017, with 18% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 1%
Top-12 finishes: 4%
Top-24 finishes: 10%
Top-36 finishes: 18%

Skill set: Pass-Down RB.

Heidenriech's closest Super Model comps:

Brashard Smith
Dylan Laube
Deuce Vaughn

Bottom line: Heidenreich broke the Rookie Super Model—his receiving numbers were so wild I had to reduce their weight in the RB production rating. That's fair; he essentially played slot WR at Navy, posting an 11.5 aDOT and 75% route participation rate. No RB at any level posts those numbers. He handled just 10% of designed rush attempts in college, so with Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle and Kaleb Johnson ahead of him, his 2026 role is likely pass-down specialist and special teams. At 198 pounds, rushing upside isn't off the table—the model has him as an RB6 with RB4 upside, but he offers long-shot RB2 upside if he ever handles 30-40% of the rushing workload.

Adam Randall | Clemson

Super Model Rating: 64 (148th since 2017)
Draft Pick: 185
Rookie Age: 22.1
Height: 75 inches
Weight: 232 pounds

Fantasy Outlook

There have been 136 RBs who have garnered a Super Model rating between 60 and 70 since 2017, with 18% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

Top-six finishes: 1%
Top-12 finishes: 4%
Top-24 finishes: 10%
Top-36 finishes: 18%

Skill set: Early-down RB.

Randall's closest Super Model comps:

Hassan Haskins
Jase McClellan
Qadree Ollison

Bottom line: Randall rates below average in the Rookie Super Model as a late-Day 3 pick, but the model struggles to account for his unique path. Recruited as a WR, he didn't switch to RB until Year 4, posting a 1.48 YPTA while battling a torn ACL, broken hand, and stress fracture across his first three seasons. At 232 pounds with a 113.2 Speed Score (74th percentile), the tools are there. He has a real shot at the early-down backup role to Derrick Henry.

For the rest of the Rookie RBs, including many of the undrafted free agents, be sure to check out the Rookie Super Model tool, where you can compare prospects back to 2017.

Data Glossary For The RB Rookie Super Model

Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
Best RYPTPA: Peak-season receiving yards per team pass attempt, normalizing production across run-heavy vs. pass-heavy offenses.
Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
PFF Run Block Grade: Weighted average of run blocking grades based on run-block snaps each season.
Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
SOS YPTA Over Expected: Adjusts YPTA production for strength of schedule.
Speed Score: Speed normalized for weight; invented by Bill Barnwell. Formula: (Weight * 200) / (40-yard dash time)4
Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
TPRR: Targets per route run.
YAC: Average yards after the catch.
YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
Year-Weighted YPTA: Weights Years 1-3 more heavily, where college production best predicts NFL success. Year 4 carries a negative correlation. Good players show up early
YPG: Yards per game.
YPRR: Yards per route run.
YPTA: Adjusted yards per team attempt (pass + rush), with receiving yards double-weighted. Normalizes production across teams with different play volumes.