
Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings For 2026: Jeremiyah Love, Carnell Tate and More
Dwain McFarland breaks down how he's ranking the 2026 rookie class for fantasy football.
With landing spots revealed, it's time to dive into fantasy football rookie rankings for 2026. A major component of how I rank players comes from the Rookie Super Model, a data-driven approach that has historically predicted future NFL success better than the draft pick alone.
You can find the full Rookie Super Model write-ups for each position here:
Now, let's dive into the rankings.
2026 Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings and Tiers
For each player, we will evaluate the player's Year 1 outlook, where landing spot can play a larger role, and the multi-year outlook, where talent becomes the bigger factor. So, whether you are trying to prepare for a dynasty rookie draft or just the 2026 season, we have you covered.
Tier 1: One RB Stands Alone
1. Jeremiyah Love | RB1 | Cardinals
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 91.8 (5th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 3
- 2026 Outlook: Mid-Range RB2 with RB1 Upside
- Multi-Year Outlook: High-End RB1

Love is an electric playmaker with the size-speed combo that NFL talent evaluators drool over. While his Production Rating (75) is lower than that of historical top-10 NFL Draft picks, sharing the backfield with Jadarian Price, Love's underlying data profiles similarly.
| Player | Missed Tackles Forced % | Average Yards After Contact | 10+ Yard Carries | Targets Per Route | Yards Per Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 25% | 3.51 | 16.2% | 18% | 1.66 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 38% | 4.76 | 16.6% | 18% | 1.60 |
| Leonard Fournette | 22% | 3.04 | 16.7% | 19% | 1.62 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 31% | 4.35 | 17.1% | 20% | 1.59 |
| Bijan Robinson | 39% | 4.40 | 16.0% | 14% | 1.48 |
And Love's NFL Combine testing matches those numbers. At 212 pounds, he ran a blistering 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His 117.3 Speed Score falls in the 82nd percentile for prospects dating back to 2017 in the Rookie Super Model database.
The 21-year-old isn't on the same level as a Jahmyr Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey as a receiver. Still, he is capable of posting similar receiving numbers to Barkley, Jeanty and Robinson, who have all provided receiving goodness at different points in their career.
Since 2017, five RBs have reached a Rookie Super Model Rating of 89 or higher. All five of those RBs have produced a top-six fantasy finish by Year 3. The cohort averaged 19.8 points per game over the first three campaigns.
As the No. 3 pick in the draft, Love's rookie deal includes a rookie RB record-setting $50.5 million in guaranteed money. His average annual salary ranks seventh among NFL backs.
Since 2015, most top-10 RBs have received a significant workload in their first year (excludes games missed):
- Ashton Jeanty: 78%
- Saquon Barkley: 76%
- Ezekiel Elliott: 75%
- Leonard Fournette: 71%
- Todd Gurley: 66% (coming off ACL)
- Bijan Robinson: 45%
- Christian McCaffrey: 26% (23% targets)
In an interesting twist, Love finds himself in a backfield with Tyler Allgeier, who subdued Robinson's rush share as a rookie. Allgeier signed a two-year, $12.3M contract with Arizona with $8M guaranteed. From a cap percentage perspective, that isn't a huge number at 1.3% in 2026 per Over The Cap.
In our fantasy football projections model, I am giving some respect to Allgeier, but still leaning into historical top-10 pick trends, giving Love 63% of the rushing attempts. In an offense with a lot of questions, the touchdown upside could be limited. Especially if Allgeier usurps attempts inside the five-yard line. When you add it all up, Love projects as a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside in my early 2026 projections.
Bottom Line: Love is a near lock for eventual top-six RB stardom. He should be the consensus No. 1 pick in rookie drafts—even Superflex. For 2026, he is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside should he get a larger role and the Cardinals surprise on offense.
Tier 2: Who's Your Rookie WR1?
2. Jordyn Tyson | WR1 | Saints
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 88.9 (14th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 8
- 2026 Outlook: Borderline WR2
- Multi-Year Outlook: High-End WR2

Tyson was an absolute target hog in college, notching a 28% career target share (77th percentile) and a 38% best-season target share (83rd percentile). Oink. Oink, y'all. He dominated versus man and zone coverage with 39% and 27% target-per-route-run marks. His 86 Production Rating is the highest of any Round 1 pick in 2026.
The 22-year-old delivered above-expected Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (RYPTPA) every season versus historical Round 1 picks:
- Year 1: 1.61 (R1 WR average: 0.91)
- Year 2: N/A (injury)
- Year 3: 3.46 (R1 WR average: 2.54)
- Year 4: 2.43 (R1 WR average: 2.40)
The result is an adjusted career RYPTPA at the 78th percentile, which is the model's No. 1 production input.
Nerd Note: Production Rating normalizes prospect data based on team pass attempts in games played, year of eligibility, teammate target competition, quarterback play, and strength of schedule. Production in Years 1-3 correlates more strongly with future NFL success and gets more weight in the model.
Since 2018, 12 WRs have notched a Rookie Super Model Rating between 84 and 94, with 75% securing a top-24 finish by Year 3. The cohort averaged 12.1 points over their first three years.
- Top-six: 25%
- Top-12: 33%
- Top-24: 75%
- Top-36: 92%
Nerd Note: It is worth pointing out that the numbers above may be slightly high due to the lack of blue-chip prospects at other positions in the draft. Draft capital is the No. 1 input in the model, and not all draft classes are created equal. While the Rookie Super Model likes Tyson, it views him as a mid- to late-Round 1 pick, not a top-10 talent.
Technically, Tyson is the WR2 in the Rookie Super Model, but I have him as the WR1 in my rookie ranks, ahead of Carnell Tate. My reasoning is pretty simple: Tyson has dominated targets in a way that remains a question for Tate.
Tyson can line up anywhere in the formation, providing alignment versatility for an imaginative play-caller like Kellen Moore in New Orleans. With the Saints, the WR depth chart is barren behind Chris Olave. Look for Tyson to immediately carve out a full-time role, easily leapfrogging names like Devaughn Vele, Mason Tipton and Ja'Lynn Polk.
My expectation for 2026 is a passing attack highly consolidated around Olave and Tyson. The biggest question is whether Tyler Shough's second-half rookie breakout, when he averaged 251 passing yards, is real. If so, there is room for two strong fantasy producers.
Bottom Line: Tyson is my No. 2 rookie prospect in 1QB formats and my No. 3 player in Superflex behind Fernando Mendoza. He profiles as a WR2 with decent WR1 upside and a strong WR3 floor. For 2026, he projects as a borderline WR2 and should be the first rookie WR off the board.
3. Carnell Tate | WR2 | Titans
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 95.7 (5th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 4
- 2026 Outlook: Borderline WR3
- Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range to High-End WR2

Tate had to compete with high-end target competition, playing alongside Jeremiah Smith, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka at Ohio State. Despite that, he contributed early in his collegiate career, and his RYPTPA marks were still near or above the average for Round 1 WRs each year.
- Year 1: 0.79 (Round 1 WR average: 0.91)
- Year 2: 1.70 (Round 1 WR average: 1.98)
- Year 3: 2.74 (Round 1 WR average: 2.54)
The 21-year-old posted a +0.56 RYPTA over expected for his career, after adjusting for his teammates, which is strong but slightly below several past-year Buckeyes who played in loaded WR rooms.
- Marvin Harrison Jr: +1.02
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +0.81
- Garrett Wilson: +0.92
- Chris Olave: +0.72
- Emeka Egbuka: +0.46
Tate is a good WR, but the lack of high-end prospects at other positions in the 2026 draft very likely inflated his draft position. As the No. 4 pick, that gives him a 100 Draft Capital Rating, tying with Harrison Jr. as the highest WR taken since 2018. Given that Draft Capital is the model's No. 1 input, it is a big deal.
While this might all feel like a negative write-up for Tate, that isn't my intent. He is a strong prospect; the Rookie Super Model just views him as a mid-Round 1 pick, not a top-four selection. Tate could still go on to have a great NFL career, and we can't rule out him becoming a high-end target earner. While his 16% career target share (38th percentile) and 22% best target share season (44th percentile) leave us with questions, he will likely never play in an NFL offense as loaded as what he faced at Ohio State.
Tate is a contested catch maestro, securing 69% of contested targets—far above the prospect average of 46%. He can unlock the intermediate and deep areas of the field, potentially leading to significant touchdown upside. His 130.6 career QB rating when targeted comes in at the 79th percentile—he was highly impactful when given opportunities.
In Tennessee, I expect Tate to step into a full-time role immediately and could lead the team in yards and touchdowns as a rookie. He will compete with Wan'Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley for the attention of Year 2 QB Cam Ward. Ultimately, Tate will need Ward to take a step forward to unlock a significant ceiling in fantasy football.
Bottom Line: Tate is my No. 2 WR in rookie ranks and No. 3 player overall. Matthew Freedman aligns with the Rookie Super Model with Tate as his WR1. He profiles as a mid-range to low-end WR2 long-term. In 2026, Tate projects as a borderline WR3.
Tier 3: Mid-Range WR3s With WR2 Upside For Dynasty Leagues
4. Makai Lemon | WR3 | Eagles
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 83.3 (25th All Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 20
- 2026 Outlook: Mid-Range WR4
- Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range WR3 with WR2 Upside

Lemon is a five-star recruit who delivered his best season in Year 3 after Zachariah Branch left for Georgia. He was slightly below average for a Round 1 NFL Draft pick in his first two seasons.
- Year 1: 0.42 (Round 1 WR average: 0.91)
- Year 2: 1.56 (Round 1 WR average: 1.98)
- Year 3: 2.74 (Round 1 WR average: 2.54)
When you put all of the normalization factors into play, Lemon's Adjusted Career RYPTPA comes in at the 55th percentile. That is slightly below the average of the 62nd percentile for Round 1 picks since 2018.
Still, he flashed significant target-earning ability with a 29% share in his best season and is a sure-handed option (2.2% drop rate) who can add value after the catch. Lemon averaged 6.8 yards after the catch (YAC), +1.4 yards over expected after adjusting for his 10.1 average depth of target (aDOT).
Since 2018, there have been 28 prospects with a Rookie Super Model Rating between 78 and 88. Of that cohort, 57% delivered a WR3 fantasy season by Year 3.
- Top-six: 14%
- Top-12: 21%
- Top-24: 50%
- Top-36: 57%
This data is what pushes Lemon a tier below Tyson and Tate. To unlock his full potential, he must avoid playing in a slot-only role. He has sneaky deep speed, garnering 23% of his targets 20-plus yards downfield—more than Tyson or Tate.
As a Round 1 pick, I am assuming the Eagles have a plan for Lemon and view him as a player who can play on the outside as a Z option, regularly working the underneath and intermediate ranges of the field with deep shots sprinkled in. This also assumes that A.J. Brown gets traded.
Bottom Line: Lemon is my No. 3 WR in the rookie ranks and projects as a mid-range WR3 with WR2 upside long-term. In 2026, Lemon projects is a mid-range WR4 with upside.
5. KC Concepcion | WR4 | Browns
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 82.1 (32nd All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 24
- 2026 Outlook: Low-End WR4
- Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range WR3 with WR2 Upside

Concepcion boomed as a three-star prospect in Year 1 before regressing in Year 2 at NC State, battling injuries and an unimaginative scheme. So, he transferred to Texas A&M, where he blossomed into a much more versatile player, and his RYPTPA rebounded.
- Year 1: 2.22 (Round 1 WR average 0.91)
- Year 2: 1.26 (Round 1 WR average 1.98)
- Year 3: 2.24 (Round 1 WR average 2.54)
At TAMU, Concepcion's aDOT jumped from 6.9 to 12.2, and his number of snaps playing wide climbed from 15% to 65%. In that final season, 21% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield. The 22-year-old also demonstrated strong target-earning ability with a 27% career target share (27th percentile).
If the Browns view Concepcion as a player who can play the role he did at TAMU, there is a lot to like about his profile. Honestly, I was torn between him and Lemon for the WR3 in my ranks and could see myself flipping them at some point. But that is the beauty of tiers—both players offer a similar range of outcomes.
Ultimately, I leaned into Lemon over Concepcion because QB is a massive question mark for the Browns with Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders battling for the starting role in 2026. Theoretically, the Browns could secure their QB of the future next year in the draft, but there are no guarantees, so I leaned toward the more stable offense, despite the Eagles' recent struggles. I think both players have similar target competition with DeVonta Smith and Harold Fannin. Both players can add value in the run and return game, although Concepcion profiles better in that aspect.
Bottom Line: Concepcion is my WR4 in the rookie ranks, but I wouldn't argue with anyone (like Freedman) for having him as the WR3 in the class. He profiles as a mid-range WR3 with WR2 upside long-term and projects as a low-end WR4 for 2026.
Tier 4: A Tight End Enters The Picture
6. Kenyon Sadiq | TE1 | Jets
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 84.9 (5th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 16
- 2026 Outlook: High-End TE2 with Upside
- Multi-Year Outlook: Low-End TE1 with High-End TE1 Upside

Sadiq never became the focal point of the Oregon offense, which is a red flag. Historically, top-16 picks had an 82 Production Rating. However, Sadiq was viewed as a consensus mid-Round 1 talent on big boards, and the Jets took the plunge.
He is a pure, unadulterated bet on athletic traits. The 21-year-old ran a 4.39 40-second 40-yard dash at 241 pounds. His 129.8 speed score ranks No. 1 all-time. The question is whether the Jets can unlock untapped target-earning potential. Sadiq's 9% career target share falls in the 25th percentile for prospects since 2018.
When given his opportunities, Sadiq's athleticism showed up in the data with a 137.9 career QB rating when targeted (89th percentile). His 6.6 YAC was +1.1 yards over expected after adjusting for his 6.2 average depth of target.
Some have concerns that Sadiq's size and blocking prowess will limit his playing time. That could certainly happen, but Brock Bowers and Harold Fannin Jr. were similar in size and career PFF Run Blocking grade.
Since 2018, 10 TEs have had a Rookie Super Model Rating between 75 and 95, with 60% achieving top-9 status by Year 3. They averaged 9.0 fantasy points over their first three seasons.
- Top-three: 30%
- Top-six: 30%
- Top-nine: 60%
- Top-12: 70%
The Jets spent a Round 2 pick last season on Mason Taylor, so there is some risk of a rotation, and the team also added Omar Cooper Jr. to play alongside Garrett Wilson. The Jets also have QB questions with Geno Smith as the starter for 2026. However, they have three first-rounders next season, which gives them the ammunition to make a move for their future franchise QB in the draft.
Bottom Line: Sadiq is my TE1 in rookie ranks and ranks as my No. 6 player overall—in line with Freedman. Sadiq is a boom-bust profile, but profiles as a mid-range TE1 with high-end upside in dynasty. For 2026, he projects as a high-end TE2 with upside.
7. Omar Cooper Jr. | WR5 | Jets
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 79.6 (45th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 30
- 2026 Outlook: Borderline WR4
- Multi-Year Outlook: Low-End WR3 with WR2 Upside

Cooper erupted in his final season with a 2.43 RYPTPA after moving to the slot. However, the Rookie Super Model views Cooper as more of a Round 2 NFL Draft prospect. Each year of his career, he underperformed versus the average for Round 1 picks:
- Year 1: 0.00 (reshirt; Round 1 WR average: 0.91)
- Year 2: 0.99 (Round 1 WR average: 1.98)
- Year 3: 1.64 (Round 1 WR average: 2.74)
- Year 4: 2.43 (Round 1 WR average: 2.54)
With that said, Cooper did notch a 2.00 yards per route run (YPRR) all three seasons, including two playing primarily from the outside. Theoretically, that gives him schematic versatility, but he was at his best in the slot, where he could thrive as a plus YAC player. His career 6.6 YAC was +1.1 yards over expected after adjusting for his 12.5 aDOT.
The 22-year-old was a below-average target earner with a 17% share for his career (42nd percentile), but posted a 24% share in his best season in Year 4 (49th percentile). However, he made the most of his opportunities with a 130.7 QB rating when targeted (79th percentile).
Since 2018, 47 WR prospects have notched a Rookie Super Model between 75 and 85, with 47% securing a top-36 finish by Year 3. The cohort averaged 8.9 fantasy points over their first three years.
- Top-six: 4%
- Top-12: 11%
- Top-24: 34%
- Top-36: 47%
With the Jets, Cooper faces stiff target competition from Garrett Wilson, and the addition of Sadiq could further muddy the waters. Geno Smith has supported multiple fantasy weapons in the past but struggled in 2026, leaving considerable questions about the upside of this passing attack. Still, the Jets have three Round 1 picks in 2027, which could enable them to secure their long-term answer.
I expect Cooper to take over the WR2 role from Adonai Mitchell as a rookie, but the overall quality of the offense could limit his upside—especially in the TD department.
Bottom Line: Cooper is my WR5 in the rookie ranks, a view shared by Freedman. Long-term, he profiles as a low-end WR3 with WR2 upside. In 2026, he projects as a high-end WR5.
8. Jadarian Price | RB | Seahawks
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 72.4 (45th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 32
- 2026 Outlook: Low-End RB2 until Zach Charbonnet returns
- Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range RB3 with RB2 Upside

Price shared the backfield with Love at Notre Dame, which severely limited his opportunities. However, he was a productive runner, posting solid underlying data points:
- Missed Tackles Forced: 25% (52nd percentile)
- Average Yards After Contact: 4.65 (76th percentile)
- 10-plus Yard Attempts: 19.2% (67th percentile)
Much of the scouting community praised Price as a potential plus early-down runner with natural vision, which aligns with his rushing data. The challenge with Price for fantasy purposes is his lackluster receiving profile.
- Targets Per Route Run: 9% (11th percentile)
- Yards Per Route Run: 0.80 (20th percentile)
His best RYPTPA season of 0.27 falls in the 27th percentile, and he struggled to handle blocking duties with a career PFF Pass Block Grade of 38.5 (30th percentile). That combination makes it hard to project him as a player who will become a significant part of a passing attack.
When you put it all together, Price is the most overrated Round 1 RB draft pick since 2017, according to the model. His draft pick ranks 14th, and his Rookie Super Model rating ranks 45th—a delta of 31. The two closest players: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (-11) and Sony Michel (-10).
Still, he should get his opportunities given that the Seahawks have a need with Charbonnet recovering from an ACL injury and Kenneth Walker gone. This draft capital suggests he will have an immediate role, which could provide value early in the 2026 season, but long-term, there are questions with his profile.
Since 2017, 67 RBs have posted a Super Model Rating between 67 and 77, averaging 8.1 points per game. Within that cohort, 49% have become top-36 RBs by Year 3.
- Top-six: 4%
- Top-12: 10%
- Top-24: 31%
- Top-36: 49%
Bottom Line: Price is the RB2 in my rookie ranks behind Love, but there is a considerable difference in my overall ranking and Freedman's. Freedman has Price as his No. 4 rookie, while I have him at No. 8 due to concerns about his receiving profile. I lean towards the Rookie Super Model, which sees price as a low-end RB3 in the long term. In 2026, Price projects as a borderline RB3, but could provide RB2 value until Charbonnet returns.
9. Fernando Mendoza | QB1 | Raiders
- NFL Draft Pick: 1
- 2026 Outlook: Low-End QB2
- Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range QB2 with Low-End QB1 Upside
Mendoza was a prolific passer over his final two seasons. He averaged 273 yards in 2024 at Cal with 16 TDs. His yardage dropped 221 per game (9.3 yards per attempt) in his Championship season at Indiana, but he tossed 41 TDs.
He is a cerebral passer with good accuracy—his 68.1% completion rate was +7.1 over expected after adjusting for his 9.0 aDOT—which could lead to fantasy spike seasons if the Raiders can add more weapons beyond Brock Bowers.
The 22-year-old isn't a great runner, but he posted respectable numbers, rushing for 30.4 and 23.4 yards per game over his final two campaigns. He likely won't be part of the designed run-game plan, but he is willing to scramble (6.8% for his career).
Bottom Line: Mendoza is the No. 9 player in my rookie rankings and the No. 2 option in Superflex behind Love. To unlock his ceiling, the Raiders must add more high-quality weapons. For 2026, I have Mendoza projected as a low-end QB2 who might not start immediately.
Tier 5: The Drop-Off Begins
There is a significant drop-off starting with this tier in a weak draft class. Trading up to get one of the top nine players would be ideal, or trading away your picks if you have a dynasty manager in your league that isn't plugged in. If you have to stick-and-pick, below are the candidates for late Round 1 through mid-Round 2. They are tightly clustered, so take the guy you like most—below is my order, but I tier them together for a reason: their range of outcomes is very similar.
Nerd Note: The WRs below are highly speculative plays. Historical players with similar Rookie Super Model Ratings have turned into WR3s or better only ~30% of the time.
10. Chris Bell | WR6 | Dolphins
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 70.2 (115th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 94
- 2026 Outlook: WR5 with WR3 upside once healthy
- Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range WR4 with WR3 Upside
- Chris Bell Prospect Profile

Bell was considered by many as a borderline Round 1 WR prospect before his late-season ACL tear at the end of the 2025 season. The Rookie Super Model viewed him more as a Round 3 prospect, which is where he ultimately went. However, he lands on a Dolphins team with a wide-open depth chart.
The 22-year-old started slow, but came on over his last two seasons at Louisville with stronger RYPTPAs, but they were well below the average for his Round 1 buzz:
- Year 1: 0.43 (reshirt; Round 1 WR average: 0.91)
- Year 2: 0.99 (Round 1 WR average: 1.98)
- Year 3: 1.72 (Round 1 WR average: 2.74)
- Year 4: 2.47 (Round 1 WR average: 2.54)
Ultimately, this is a very similar career journey to Cooper's, but without the Round 1 NFL Draft capital. Similar to Cooper, Bell is a YAC monster. His 5.8 career YAC was +0.8 over expected after adjusting for his 10.7-yard aDOT. When you watch Bell, you will see a player who thrives on in-breaking routes and crossers where he can use his athleticism and 222-pound frame to create challenges for would-be tacklers.
Bell isn't a complete prospect, but he has some hang-your-hat traits and could quickly ascend to the WR1 on the Dolphins depth chart once healthy. In an offense prioritizing him on play-action routes and movement, he could become a strong target earner.
Bottom Line: I am breaking ranks with the Rookie Super Model to prioritize Bell at the 1-2 turn in rookie drafts as my No. 10 player, and Freedman is even more bullish at No. 9. He projects as a WR5 with upside for 2026.
11. Denzel Boston | WR7 | Browns
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 75.2 (75th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 39
- 2026 Outlook: WR6 with WR4 Upside if he beats out Jerry Jeudy
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR3 Upside
- Denzel Boston Prospect Profile

Boston was thought of as a top-20 pick when the march to the NFL Draft began in February. However, the Rookie Super Model viewed him as highly overrated as a Round 1 prospect. His career RYPTPA journey did not align with historical Round 1 numbers, and he slipped into Round 2.
- Year 1: 0.14 (redshirt; Round 1 WR average: 0.91)
- Year 2: 0.10 (Round 1 WR average: 1.98)
- Year 3: 1.99 (Round 1 WR average: 2.74)
- Year 4: 2.52 (Round 1 WR average: 2.54)
That journey most closely matches:
- Cedric Tillman → R3, Pick 74
- Javon Baker → R4, Pick 110
- Devontez Walker → R4, Pick 113
- Jalen Nailor → R6, Pick 191
- Jakobi Meyers → UDFA
Over his first three seasons, Boston played with multiple WRs who were drafted in the first three rounds of the 2024 Draft:
- Rome Odunze, Round 1
- Ja'Lynn Polk, Round 2
- Jalen McMillan, Round 3
While that is important context, the Rookie Super Model accounts for that with an input for RYPTPA over expected based on teammates. Unfortunately, Boston didn't shine even after adjusting for his teammates with a mark of +0.06. Other WRs who played in more competitive rooms have overcome this challenge:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 1.00
- Justin Jefferson: 0.93
- Emeka Egbuka: 0.81
- Chris Olave: 0.72
Boston is a big-bodied contested catch savant with vice-grip hands with a 2.5% career drop rate. He complements Harold Fannin and Concepcion as a solid possession option with redzone upside. However, we have significant questions about the Browns' QB situation, which isn't guaranteed to be resolved anytime soon.
The red flags are strong with this one.
Bottom Line: Ultimately, Boston is a bet on strong Round 2 NFL Draft capital, which is the No. 1 input in the Rookie Super Model. He is my WR7 and the No. 11 player overall in the rookie ranks. For 2026, Boston will challenge Jerry Jeudy for a starting role, making him a WR6 in early projections.
12. De'Zhaun Stribling | WR8 | 49ers
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 76.3 (75th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 33
- 2026 Outlook: WR7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target (but could change in training camp)
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR3 Upside
- De'Zhaun Stribling Prospect Profile
I really don't want to be negative, but I can only share with you what the data says: Taking Stribling at Pick 33 was a massive reach by San Francisco. The Rookie Super Model viewed Stribling as a Day 3 pick.
The delta between his Rookie Super Model rank and his draft capital rank is -22, which has been a considerable red flag for WRs taken in the top 64 picks since 2018. Only Rashee Rice was a hit.
- Xavier Legette: -52 ❌
- Jonathan Mingo: -37 ❌
- Tyquan Thornton: -34 ❌
- Tutu Atwell: -30 ❌
- Van Jefferson: -28 ❌
- Ja'Lynn Polk: -24 ❌
- Denzel Boston: -24 ❓
- Kadarius Toney: -23 ❌
- Jack Bech: -23 ❓
- Rashee Rice: -22 ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Still, in a bad draft class, it is hard to ignore his draft capital. Theoretically, the 49ers have a plan for Stribling, where he will challenge Ricky Pearsall and Christian Kirk for playing time.
If we put on our rose colored glasses, while Stribling never dominated in college, he has the raw traits that could make him a valuable YAC option in Kyle Shanahan's scheme. The 23-year-old notched a +1.0 YAC average over expected after adjusting for his 11.5 aDOT. And he ran a 4.36-second 40-yard dash at 207 pounds.
In a perfect world, Pearsall kicks inside to the slot, and Stribling takes over the WR2 role as a prolific zone target underneath the coverage. Evans would be the go-to against man coverage on the opposite side, giving Brock Purdy a similar read progression to his years with Deebo Samuel as the zone beater and Brandon Aiyuk as the go-to man option. Shanahan also noted Stribling's run-blocking ability in the post-draft press conference, which could also help him gain snaps.
Bottom Line: There are considerable concerns with Stribling's profile, but he comes in as the WR8 and my No. 12 rookie overall, which aligns with Freedman. For now, I have Stribling projected as a co-WR3 with Kirk, which makes him a long shot in redraft. However, we will adapt as we get more news throughout training camp, and Stribling could be a waiver-wire target if his role expands.
13. Eli Stowers | TE2 | Eagles
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 73.5 (22nd All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 54
- 2026 Outlook: TE3 Stash in TE Premium/Waiver Wire Target if Goedert misses time
- Multi-Year Outlook: Borderline TE1 with High-End TE1 Upside
- Eli Stowers Prospect Profile

The Eagles have a strong recent history in Round 2 of the NFL Draft at the tight end position.
- 2013: Zach Ertz (35th)
- 2018: Dallas Goedert (49th)
And based on the post-game press conference, they view Stowers similarly, noting that he can do things no one else can, making him a tough cover. They also noted his high football IQ. Howie Roseman described Stowers as a proactive "succession plan."
There are questions about Stowers ever developing into a full-time TE due to his questionable blocking, with many seeing him more as a big slot. That could limit his playing time to a range like Juwan Johnson, which isn't ideal for fantasy football. However, the quotes above seem to point to a prospect they think could develop into an in-line option over time.
Stowers was originally a QB but transitioned to TE at Vanderbilt, where he quickly blossomed into a passing-game focal point. His 2.34 YPRR (78th percentile) and 27% TPRR (80th percentile) are the highest marks of any TE in the class.
Stowers will have to wait his turn behind Goedert, but if he develops quickly, that could be sooner rather than later, with Goedert playing on a one-year $7M contract at the age of 31.
Bottom Line: Stowers offers immense target-earning upside, making him my No. 13 rookie overall and the TE2 in the class. In 2026, he will play a part-time role, with his eyes set on a larger role in 2027 should Goedert depart.
14. Elijah Sarratt | WR9 | Ravens
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 73.5 (90th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 115
- 2026 Outlook: WR6 with WR3 Upside
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR2 Upside
- Elijah Sarratt Prospect Profile

Sarratt's 93 Production Rating is the sixth-highest in the Rookie Super Model era, dating back to 2018. In a class where the model views many WR prospects as overrated, the opposite is true for Sarratt. The 23-year-old's delta between his Rookie Super Model rank and draft pick rank is +54.
While the model hasn't hit on 100% of players with that sort of delta, there have been some massive hits. Below is a list of the players taken in the first 120 picks that ranked 30 spots higher in the model than their draft pick rank:
- Marvin Mims: Pick 63 ❌
- DK Metcalf: Pick 64 ✅
- Nico Collins: Pick 89 ✅
- Troy Franklin: Pick 102 ❌
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: Pick 112 ✅
His 28% career contested target rate (81st percentile) has some worried about his game translating to the NFL, but there is actually a positive correlation between contested targets and future fantasy production. It isn't a hang-your-hat sort of box to check, but it shouldn't be viewed as a negative. Especially considering his contested catch rate of 57% was far above the 46% average for historical prospects.
Nerd Note: Contested target rates go up as aDOT and wide alignment routes increase. The further a pass has to travel, the more likely a player is to encounter a contested target, as defenders have more time to react.
Sarratt is a player who has earned the trust of his QBs, even if covered, earning the nickname Waffle House because he is always open. A nickname that the team leaned into in their post-draft press conference when Eric DeCosta said Sarratt was "easily the best player available".
With the Ravens, Sarratt will battle fellow rookie Ja'Kobi Lane and veteran underperformer Rashod Bateman for the WR2 role. With Declan Doyle in town as the new offensive coordinator and late-round TE picks playing behind Mark Andrews, we could see more three-WR sets.
Bottom Line: Sarratt isn't a sure thing, but he offers far more upside than the market currently assumes. He is a priority Round 2 target for me in a rookie class bereft of high-upside plays as my WR9 and No. 14 player overall. For 2026, he is a boom-bust WR6 that offers WR3 upside if he booms in an offense searching for a new No. 2 WR.
15. Germie Bernard | WR10 | Steelers
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 74.3 (85th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 56
- 2026 Outlook: WR6 with WR4 Upside if DK Metcalf or Michael Pittman Jr. miss time
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR3 Upside
- Germie Bernard Prospect Profile

Bernard never emerged as an alpha target earner during his college career with a 14% career target share (33rd percentile) and best-season mark of 22% (44th percentile). However, his 72 Production Rating is still slightly higher than the 69 average for Round 2 NFL Draft picks since 2018.
He can line up all over the formation and adds value after the catch. His career 6.4 YAC average was 1.3 yards over expected after adjusting for his 10.5-yard aDOT. He also rarely let the pigskin touch the ground with a 1.7% career drop rate.
Those numbers align with the comments from offensive coordinator Brian Angelichio in the post-draft presser. Angelichio praised him as a "clutch player" with the "versatility to play inside and outside."
Bernard will have to battle DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. for targets, which isn't ideal on a team with QB questions. However, Bernard has the inside track to the WR3 role on a weak depth chart, and Mike McCarthy has leaned into three-WR sets at times.
Bottom Line: Bernard's upside is somewhat capped in an offense without a high-end QB and two other mouths to feed, but he should immediately carve out a role. He profiles as a WR4 with eventual WR3 upside long-term, but projects as a WR6 option in 2026. Freedman has Bernard two spots ahead of me in the overall rookie ranks.
16. Antonio Williams | WR11 | Commanders
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 72.3 (99th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 71
- 2026 Outlook: WR6 with WR3 Upside
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR3 Upside
- Antonio Williams Prospect Profile

Williams wasn't a target hog in college with a career target share of 19% (47th percentile) and a best-season target share of 20% (40th percentile). However, he was electric with his opportunities, notching a 122.1 QB Rating when targeted (70th percentile).
The 22-year-old mostly operated from the slot, aligning wide on only 21% of his snaps at Clemson. He will help the Commanders attack the soft underneath areas of the field against zone coverage. Williams had an 8.5 career aDOT (35th percentile) with 64% of his targets coming behind the line of scrimmage or 0 to 9 yards downfield.
In a class where many WRs fell down the board, Williams secured third-round draft capital and landed on a depth chart without a defined WR2 behind Terry McLaurin. General Manager Adam Peters described him as a "smooth operator" who can move around the formation. Given their weak RB depth chart, we could even see some touches in the run game. Williams ran for 187 yards and two TDs at Clemson.
Bottom Line: Williams has the draft capital and landing spot to carve out an immediate full-time role in training camp. He profiles as a WR3 with WR4 upside long-term, but could get there quickly if he can take over the WR2 role in camp.
17. Ja'Kobi Lane | WR12 | Ravens
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 72.1 (101st All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 80
- 2026 Outlook: WR6 with WR3 upside
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR3 upside
- Ja'Kobi Lane Prospect Profile

Lane was a subpar target-earner in college with a 14% career target share (34th percentile) and a best-season mark of 21% (42nd percentile). However, he was a legit redzone weapon, which helped fuel his 116.2 QB Rating when targeted (63rd percentile).
He had a 33% contested target rate (99th percentile) but wasn't as prolific as Tate, Sarratt and Boston in converting those opportunities. Still, his 49% contested catch rate was above the 46% average for historical prospects.
Those attributes align with the Ravens' description of Lane in the post-draft press conference, where they lauded his red-zone prowess as a "big matchup guy" with "unique catching ability and unique size." Lane is 6-foot-4, 200 pounds.
While the model likes Sarratt more than Lane thanks to a much more prolific Production Rating, the Ravens took Lane 35 picks earlier. And the organization is signaling readiness for a page turn at the WR2 spot. There is a chance Lane wins that role in camp, which could provide him with an early opportunity to shine.
Bottom Line: Lane profiles as a long-term WR4-WR5 with WR3 upside if he can unlock a new level to his game with the Ravens. While I have Lane as my No. 17 player in the rookie ranks, Freedman is more pessimistic at 29th overall.
18. Chris Brazzell II | WR13 | Panthers
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 72.6 ( All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 83
- 2026 Outlook: WR7 with WR4 Upside
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR2 Upside
- Chris Brazzell Prospect Profile

Brazzell was a Round 2 WR on consensus big boards, but tumbled into Round 3 on draft day. He wasn't a target hog in college with a 19% career target share (48%) and a best-season mark of 21% (42nd percentile). However, that isn't uncommon for a deep threat.
Brazzell boasts a 15.4 career average depth of target (73rd percentile) with 26% of his targets coming 20-plus yards downfield. That skill set could help him immediately displace Xavier Legette from the starting lineup.
If the 23-year-old expands his route tree, he could earn more targets at the next level, and he has the athleticism and size to excel. Brazzell stands 6-foot-4 and ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine (79th percentile).
If Brazzell overcomes Legette, he will battle Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker for looks. But perhaps his biggest obstacle is Bryce Young, who has been a below-average yards-per-game QB to date.
Bottom Line: If you like betting on speed and size, Brazzell is one of your top targets in this tier. But we need improvement from Young to support more than one strong fantasy asset. Brazzell is my No. 18 player in the rookie ranks, but Freedman is going full wet blanket with a rank of 28.
Tier 6 - Round 2/3 Rookie Draft Targets
Okay, we're in the rapid-fire section. Tier 6 represents the players worth considering from mid Round 2 through mid Round 3 in rookie drafts.
19. Nicholas Singleton | RB3 | Titans
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 68.8 (73rd All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 165
- 2026 Outlook: RB7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target if Tony Pollard goes down or loses the job
- Multi-Year Outlook: RB5 with RB2 Upside
- Nicholas Singleton Prospect Profile
Singleton never lived up to his 5-star recruit status, but he is a big and fast back who is one of the better receiving options in the class. That is a combination we can't ignore. Of all the backs in this tier, he has the best chance of taking over the backfield if he takes a step forward.
20. Jonah Coleman | RB4 | Broncos
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 70.0 (54th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 108
- 2026 Outlook: RB7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target if J.K. Dobbins/RJ Harvey go down
- Multi-Year Outlook: RB5 with RB2 Upside
- Jonah Coleman Prospect Profile
Coleman is the better prospect than Singleton, but he landed in a backfield with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey—who the team invested a Round 2 pick into last year. However, this is a great offensive line, and Sean Payton has a history of rotating backs.
He improved every season in college. And Coleman was on pace for a massive final season before a PCL injury derailed the campaign.
There is a chance Coleman is the direct backup to Dobbins rather than Harvey. Coleman has the size (222 pounds) to handle the dirty work while Harvey operates as a change-of-pace and pass-downs option. There is also a non-0% chance that Coleman overtakes Harvey and is the back we value more in 2027.
21. Ted Hurst | WR14 | Buccaneers
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 71.8 (102nd All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 80
- 2026 Outlook: WR7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target if his role grows
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR5 with WR3 Upside
- Ted Hurst Prospect Profile
Hurst has a Rookie Super Model rating good enough to be in the tier above, but Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin profile as the top two options. Jalen McMillan hasn't been a target monster, but has been a high-efficiency player. Hurst will need to leapfrog McMillan as the top vertical threat to make noise in fantasy. Hurst has legit speed with a 4.42-second 40-yard dash and collected 29% of his targets 20-plus yards downfield in college.
22. Zachariah Branch | WR15 | Falcons
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 70.4 (113th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 79
- 2026 Outlook: WR7 with Spike-Week Potential
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR5 with WR4 Upside
- Zachariah Branch Prospect Profile
The primary concerns with Branch are his size (177 pounds) and heavy reliance on underneath targets in college. He has speed to burn and is a great YAC player. However, historically, that archetype hasn't fared well in the NFL. Still, the WR2 role is technically open in Atlanta with only Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus standing in the way. Branch can also add value as a runner and on returns.
23. Skyler Bell | WR16 | Bills
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 68.6 (135th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 125
- 2026 Outlook: WR7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target (could steam in training camp)
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR5 with WR3 Upside
- Skyler Bell Prospect Profile
Bell didn't get things going until late in his college career (24 years old), but he notched a 23% career target share (61st percentile) and garnered a 33% best-season mark (69th percentile). Those marks catch my eye on a team without much behind DJ Moore and Josh Allen at quarterback. Bell can play inside and outside, which opens the doors to playing time. I expect a typical Bills heavy rotation at WR2 through WR4, but Bell could seize a larger role quickly if he performs well.
Fun fact: Khalil Shakir is Bell's No. 1 comp in the model.
24. Ty Simpson | QB2 | Rams
- NFL Draft Pick: 13th
- 2026 Outlook: Waiver Wire Target if Stafford is injured
- Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range QB2
- Ty Simpson Prospect Profile
We don't have a Rookie Super Model for QBs because I haven't found anything that is more predictive than draft capital alone. So, here we are. Did the Rams reach on Simpson? It seems likely, but he is paired with the Jimmy Neutron of coaches in Sean McVay. You will have to wait to see returns on Simpson—if he is even good—but this is the range where I would consider him in rookie drafts.
25. Kaytron Allen | RB5 | Commanders
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 65.4 (131st All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 187
- 2026 Outlook: RB7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target
- Multi-Year Outlook: RB6 with Low-End RB2 Upside
- Kaytron Allen Prospect Profile
Allen didn't get good draft capital, but he hit the nut landing spot in Washington. No backfield is more ripe for the taking than the Commanders. The Nittany Lion doesn't offer much in his receiving profile, but he has the size (216 pounds) to take over the early-down work. In an offense with Jayden Daniels acting as a gravitational pull, that can lead to some significant runways.
26. Emmett Johnson | RB6 | Chiefs
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 66.7 (106th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 161
- 2026 Outlook: RB7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target if he is the RB2 in camp
- Multi-Year Outlook: RB6 with RB2 Upside
- Emmett Johnson Prospect Profile
Johnson is a well-rounded back who can play all three downs and offers some upside as a receiver. His slow start holds down his rating in the model, but he got better every year and had his best season in Year 4. That isn't a great career arc, but we have seen some recent players follow that path and produce in fantasy.
He lands with a solid team in the Chiefs, but Kenneth Walker projects as the clear-cut RB1, pushing Johnson to handcuff status. But as far as handcuffs go, this is the archetype to target: a player who could take on a 65% snap share.
27. Kaelon Black | RB6 | 49ers
- Rookie Super Model Rating: (66.8 All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 90
- 2026 Outlook: RB7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target if the RB2 in camp
- Multi-Year Outlook: RB6 with low-end RB2 Upside
Theoretically, Pick 90 should give an RB a little bit of insulation in upcoming drafts, but Kyle Shanahan changes RBs more than his underwear. Black was also a considerable reach, which is why his Rookie Super Model rating didn't skyrocket past guys that went later. If Black is the RB2 coming out of camp, he will be one of the better handcuffs, given the quality of the 49ers offense.
28. Mike Washington Jr. | RB8 | Raiders
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 66.9 (104th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 122
- 2026 Outlook: RB7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target
- Multi-Year Outlook: RB6 with low-end RB2 Upside
- Mike Washington Jr. Prospect Profile
Washington received a ton of pre-draft hype after running a 4.33 40-yard dash at 223 pounds. Unfortunately, Washington didn't demonstrate big-play upside most of his career, with only 13% of his totes going for 10-plus yards (35th percentile). He did improve in his final season playing with a dual-threat QB, but he won't have that with the Raiders. Still, the Las Vegas depth chart is barren, which makes Washington the clear-cut RB2 behind Ashton Jeanty.
29. Malachi Fields | WR17 | Giants
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 69.7 (122nd All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 74
- 2026 Outlook: WR7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR5 with WR3 Upside
- Malachi Fields Prospect Profile
The Rookie Super Model views Fields as one of the biggest reaches of the draft, with a -25 spot delta between the model's rank and his draft pick rank. He is 23 years old with a 17% career target share (43rd percentile). Fields will challenge Darnell Mooney and Darius Slayton for playing time opposite Malik Nabers.
30. Max Klare | TE3 | Rams
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 72.8 (25th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 61
- 2026 Outlook: Waiver Wire Target if multiple Rams injuries
- Multi-Year Outlook: Low-End TE2 with Low-End TE1
- Max Klare Prospect Profile
Max Klare is a good football player. On a lesser depth chart, he would rank higher. Unfortunately, he landed with the Rams, who have a complete logjam at the position and are willing to rotate four players. Long-term, Klare offers significant upside in an innovative offense, but Terrance Ferguson—last year's Round 2 pick—is also a likely long-term fixture. Damn those fantasy gods.
Tier 7 - The Other Guys
31. Caleb Douglas | WR18 | Dolphins
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 69.4 (125th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 75
- 2026 Outlook: WR6
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR6 with WR4 Upside
Douglas was another significant reach according to the model, with a -25-spot delta between his Rookie Super Model rank and draft pick rank. While that isn't ideal, Douglas happened to land on the most desolate WR island on the planet in Miami. That means he has a chance to establish himself as a full-time player who can stretch the field vertically.
32. Bryce Lance | WR18 | Saints
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 69.6 (123rd All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 136
- 2026 Outlook: WR7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target
- Multi-Year Outlook: WR6 with WR4 Upside
- Bryce Lance Prospect Profile
Lance is a size-speed freak that can stretch out defenses vertically. He ran a 4.34-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine (83rd percentile) and saw 30% of his targets 20-plus yards downfield at North Dakota State. His 14.1 career aDOT falls in the 61st percentile. The Saints' offense will center around Chris Olave and Tyson, but Lance could challenge for the WR3 role on a weak depth chart.
33. Oscar Delp | TE4 | Saints
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 69.9 (31st All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 73
- 2026 Outlook: TE3 Stash in TE Premium/Waiver Wire Target
- Multi-Year Outlook: Low-End TE2 with Borderline TE1 Upside
Speaking of size-speed freaks, the Saints went hard in the paint. Delp, a former four-star recruit, ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. At 245 pounds, that gives him a Speed Score of 120.6 (80th percentile). Delp never became a focal point of the Bulldogs' offense with a 6% career target share (14th percentile), but when given his opportunities, he was electric. He delivered a 130.4 QB passer rating when targeted—second in the class behind Sadiq. His career 6.6 YAC was +1.2 yards over expected after adjusting for his 8.0 aDOT. Delp could challenge for the primary TE role sooner rather than later.
34. Demond Claiborne | RB9 | Vikings
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 63.2 (173rd All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 198
- 2026 Outlook: RB7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target
- Multi-Year Outlook: RB7 with RB3 Upside
Claiborne didn't grade out well in the model, and his draft pick was poor as well. But he lands on a depth chart that isn't insurmountable with Aaron Jones aging and Jordan Mason as a below-replacement-level player. That means the door is open in an offense that has historically been good outside of last year with J.J. McCarthy under center.
35. Adam Randall | RB10 | Ravens
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 64.7 (144th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 174
- 2026 Outlook: RB7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target if the RB2 in camp
- Multi-Year Outlook: RB7 with Low-End RB2 Upside
Randall was a 232-pound WR who converted to RB. He ran a 4.50-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, giving him a 113.2 Speed Score (74th percentile). That speed didn't show up in his rushing data, with only 14% of his attempts going 10-plus yards (38th percentile). However, he has a great shot to become the handcuff to aging Derrick Henry in an offense where Lamar Jackson has the gravitational pull of a neutron star, opening up massive running lanes.
36. Eli Heidenreich | RB11 | Steelers
- Rookie Super Model Rating: 65.1 (137th All-Time)
- NFL Draft Pick: 198
- 2026 Outlook: RB7 Stash/Waiver Wire Target
- Multi-Year Outlook: RB7 with RB1 Upside
Eli Heidenreich broke the Rookie Super Model. His receiving numbers—which are massive for the RB production rating—were so wild I had to put in a rule to reduce the weight he gets from them. But I think this is fair, given that he really played WR at Navy. Their slotback position is more closely related to a slot WR than an RB. His aDOT of 11.5 tells the story—no RB at any level has that sort of aDOT. His 75% route participation rate tells the same story.
Heidenreich will likely take a backseat to Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle and maybe even Kaleb Johnson in 2026. But if he doesn't end up playing slot, he has the size (198 pounds) to handle a decent rushing workload in future seasons. He handled only 10% of the designed rush attempts during his career at Navy.
Having said all of that, his receiving chops are elite, and should he turn into a player capable of handling more work on the ground, he could be the steal of rookie drafts.
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