RB Rankings Downgrades For Week 10 Fantasy Football: Chase Brown & More

Let's get into the Week 10 RB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 10 favorites and fades.

RB Rankings For Week 10 (Top 24)

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Rank	Player
1	Kenneth Walker
2	Jahmyr Gibbs
3	Christian McCaffrey
4	James Cook
5	Bijan Robinson
6	Chuba Hubbard
7	Jaylen Warren
8	Jonathan Taylor
9	Javonte Williams
10	Kyren Williams
11	Derrick Henry
12	Bhayshul Tuten
13	Ollie Gordon
14	Breece Hall
15	Blake Corum
16	Chase Brown
17	Tony Pollard
18	Jo'quavioius Marks
19	Zach Charbonnet
20	Audric Estime
21	Ashton Jeanty
22	Cam Skattebo
23	Alvin Kamara
24	Quinshon Judkins

Week 10 RB Rankings Matchup Downgrades: Javonte Williams vs. 49ers & Chase Brown vs. Steelers

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix, as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the 49ers and Steelers are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for RBs.

49ers: No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.215)
Steelers: No. 1 in defensive rush DVOA (-30.6%)

Here be dragons.

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs. 49ers: Williams has been a workhorse this season (16.4 fantasy points per game, 756 yards, 10 TDs on 154 carries, 29 targets, 81 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and last week he was dominant (20.4 fantasy points, 124 yards, 1 TD on 20 carries, 5 targets, 95 Utilization Score). For the season, he's one of just four RBs with a 100% goal-line rush share. The Cowboys have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors), and the 49ers could be without DT Gracen Halton (ankle) on top of DTs Alfred Collins (knee, IR) and C.J. West (knee, IR). But the Cowboys are still +4.5 dogs, and their offense might stagnate without WRs George Pickens (hamstring), Jonathan Mingo (ankle), and KaVontae Turpin (ribs) and TEs Jake Ferguson (knee) and Luke Schoonmaker (groin).

Chase Brown (Bengals) vs. Steelers: Brown has had strong usage this season (64% rush share, 59% route rate, 81 Utilization Score), but he has struggled to convert it into production (10.2 fantasy points per game, 604 yards, 1 TD on 103 carries, 45 targets). The Bengals are -3.5 home favorites, and the Steelers are without DTs Derrick Harmon (foot, IR) and Sebastian Joseph-Day (triceps, IR). But in division at home, QB Joe Burrow has been on the notably negative side of his splits (5-9 ATS, -31.9% ROI, per Action Network). The Bengals have traveled more than any other NFL team over the past month because they just played in Madrid (9,628 miles), and the Steelers are coming off the bye. Against the Steelers in Week 3, Brown disappointed (7.9 fantasy points, 69 yards, 0 TDs on 13 carries, 2 targets).

Scoring Downgrades in Week 10 RB Ranks: Ashton Jeanty vs. Seahawks & Tyler Allgeier vs. Rams

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the RBs."

This week, the Raiders are No. 21 in implied team total (20.0 points), and the Cardinals are No. 28 (15.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs. Seahawks: Over the past two weeks, Jeanty has played in a literal 50/50 split with No. 2 RB Mike Washington, and his production has suffered as a result (6.7 fantasy points per game, 93 yards, 0 TDs on 8 carries, 11 targets, 59 Utilization Score). That's the kind of thing that can happen when you're not good at football (3.5 yards per carry, 5.6 yards per target for career). The Raiders have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf), and indoors (vs. outdoors), and the Seahawks might be without EDGE Uchenna Nwosu (ankle) and DT Brandon Pili (back). But the offense could struggle now that the team has traded veteran QB Kirk Cousins to make way for rookie Fernando Mendoza (the market moved against the Raiders from +3.5 to +6.5), and the Seahawks are No. 3 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-3.2).

Tyler Allgeier (Cardinals) vs. Rams: Without No. 1 RB Jeremiyah Love (ankle, IR), Allgeier stepped up to serve as the team's lead back last week, and while the usage was elite (96% snap rate, 94% rush share, 100% goal-line rush share, 64% route rate), the production was anything but (5.6 fantasy points, 46 yards, 0 TDs on 17 carries, 3 targets). The Rams are without DTs Kobie Turner (groin, IR) and Poona Ford (triceps, IR), but they're still No. 3 in defensive rush DVOA (-26.9%), and when the Cardinals faced them in Week 6, Allgeier did almost nothing (5.3 fantasy points, 48 yards, 0 TDs on 18 carries, 2 targets). The Cardinals are +9.5 dogs at home, where they've had the No. 31 HFA over the past 16 games (-7.91, per NFElo), and they will likely be without QB Gardner Minshew (elbow) and LT Jayden Williams (knee), on top of LT Paris Johnson (biceps, IR). I wouldn't feel good about starting Allgeier in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Road Dog Downgrades in Week 10 RB Rankings: Jaylen Warren at Bengals & Corey Kiner vs. Lions

In general, I want to be light on RBs who are underdogs on the road, where they could disappoint through no real fault of their own and then lose opportunities to backups in garbage time.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) at Bengals: Warren has been great this year (16.0 fantasy points per game, 998 yards, 3 TDs on 119 carries, 36 targets, 86 Utilization Score), the Steelers are coming off the bye, and the Bengals have traveled more than any other NFL team over the past month because they just played in Madrid (9,628 miles). Plus, the Bengals are No. 26 in defensive rush EPA (-0.049). But the Steelers are +3.5 road dogs for Sunday Night Football, and since No. 2 RB Rico Dowdle returned to action in Week 6, Warren has once again been a timeshare back (59% rush share, 43% route rate).

Corey Kiner (Patriots) vs. Lions (in Munich): It might be tempting to start Kiner this week given that No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) is probably out, and No. 2 RB TreVeyon Henderson (illness) is highly uncertain. Kiner doesn't seem to be untalented (4.9 yards per carry, 6.2 yards per target on limited usage), but he has also never had even 12 opportunities in any NFL game, and the Pats might opt for a committee in the backfield. Plus, the Lions are No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (15.1), Kiner could have reduced work as a +2.5 dog, and the Pats could be without LT Will Campbell (knee) and RG Ben Brown (knee) on top of LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring, IR) and RGs Mike Onwenu (ankle, IR) and Greg Van Roten (hamstring, IR).

Notes

Week 10 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Buccaneers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.