QB Rankings Downgrades For Week 10 Fantasy Football: Patrick Mahomes & More

Let's get into the Week 10 QB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 10 favorites and fades.

Week 10 QB Rankings (Top 15)

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Rank	Player
1	Josh Allen
2	Drake Maye
3	Brock Purdy
4	Joe Burrow
5	Trevor Lawrence
6	Jared Goff
7	Patrick Mahomes
8	Jayden Daniels
9	Dak Prescott
10	Tyler Shough
11	C.J. Stroud
12	Jordan Love
13	Bryce Young
14	Matthew Stafford
15	Geno Smith

Matchup Downgrades in Week 10 QB Rankings: Jordan Love vs. Vikings & Deshaun Watson vs. Texans

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Texans are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for QBs.

Vikings: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-8.2)
Texans: No. 2 in defensive dropback SR (40.5%)

Here be dragons.

Jordan Love (Packers) vs. Vikings: I love Love, etc., etc., but the matchup is brutal. In Week 1, Love did well enough against the Vikings (20.5 fantasy points, 387 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT), but even then he was hit-or-miss (50.0% completion rate), and last year he massively underwhelmed against them in their one matchup (7.1 fantasy points, 139 yards passing, 0 TDs, 0 INTs with 3-15-0 rushing). After a modest start to the season in Weeks 1-4 (17.0 fantasy points per game, 56.5% completion rate, 6.9 AY/A), Love has been on fire since Week 5 (24.6 fantasy points per game, 1,577 yards passing, 11 TDs, 3 INTs with 6-31-2 rushing; 68.4% completion rate, 8.9 AY/A), and the Vikes have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football. But the Packers will be without RB Josh Jacobs (finger) and maybe C Sean Rhyan (ankle) and RG Travis Glover (knee), and Love (a -5.5 home favorite) has been notably worse as a favorite throughout his career (16.2 fantasy points per game vs. 19.7 as an underdog).

Deshaun Watson (Browns) vs. Texans: Watson was surprisingly decent to start the year in Weeks 1-3 (18.3 fantasy points per game, 587 yards passing, 5 TDs, 1 INT with 24-105-0 rushing), and he's solid as a runner (No. 2 with an 11% designed rush share, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), but since Week 4 he has been middling (13.2 fantasy points per game, 1,219 yards passing, 2 TDs, 2 INTs with 27-112-1 rushing). His setup is good: The Browns have the No. 5 HFA over the past five years (+5.12, per NFElo), and it’s boosted because they’re outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). Plus, this is the second straight road game for the Texans, against whom Watson now has a #RevengeGame. But Watson (concussion) missed last game and isn't guaranteed to get a full week of practice now. If he starts the game poorly, he might be at risk of getting benched for backup Shedeur Sanders, who was overall respectable in his stead last week (61.3% completion rate, 10.9 AY/A). And throughout his career, Watson has been much worse outdoors (17.1 fantasy points per game vs. 22.8 indoors).

QB Rankings Scoring Downgrades for Week 10: C.J. Stroud at Browns & Kirk Cousins vs. Seahawks

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the QB."

This week, the Texans are No. 15 in implied team total (22.0 points), and the Raiders are No. 21 (20.0).

Downgrades warranted.

C.J. Stroud (Texans) at Browns: Stroud has been excellent since Week 4 (24.2 fantasy points per game, 1,457 yards passing, 13 TDs, 2 INTs with 13-46-1 rushing), and he just had his best game of the season (36.4 fantasy points, 12.5 AY/A). But as I mentioned earlier in the Deshaun Watson blurb, the Texans are on their second straight road game, the Browns have the No. 5 HFA over the past five years (+5.12), and it’s boosted because they’re outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). Plus, Stroud has struggled on the road throughout his career (14.8 fantasy points per game vs. 18.0 at home). The Browns are No. 6 in defensive dropback SR (42.6%).

Fernando Mendoza (Raiders) vs. Seahawks: The Raiders have traded veteran Kirk Cousins to the Vikings, which means that Mendoza (this year's No. 1 pick) will make his first NFL start. The Raiders have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf), and indoors (vs. outdoors). But the Seahawks are No. 2 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-6.9), and the market moved a full three points against the Raiders (from +3.5 to +6.5) after the trade.

Situational Downgrades in QB Rankings for Week 10: Joe Burrow vs. Steelers & Patrick Mahomes at Falcons

In general, I want to avoid QBs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) vs. Steelers: Burrow has been an assassin since the Week 6 bye (33.6 fantasy points per game, 1,025 yards passing, 12 TDs, 3 INTs with 8-29-2 rushing; 10.6 AY/A). But the setup is bad: In division at home, Burrow's on the notably negative side of his splits (5-9 ATS, -31.9% ROI, per Action Network). The Bengals have traveled more than any other NFL team over the past month because they just played in Madrid (9,628 miles), and the Steelers are coming off the bye. For his career, Burrow has had muted production against the Steelers (18.3 fantasy points per game vs. 20.2 otherwise), who are No. 5 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-3.4). Burrow has enhanced risk in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) at Falcons: Mahomes has failed to impress since the Week 5 bye (15.1 fantasy points per game, 1,000 yards passing, 5 TDs, 2 INTs with 11-44-0 rushing), and now he might be without WR Xavier Worthy (hamstring) and RT Jaylon Moore (ankle). On top of that, Mahomes (elbow) might be limited. He has thrived indoors throughout his career (23.5 fantasy points per game vs. 21.1 outdoors), and the Falcons are now without FS Jessie Bates (traded), but this is the Chiefs' third road game in four weeks, and the Falcons have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors).

Notes

Week 10 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Buccaneers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.