New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 9

Few games contain a more rational pathway to opposite outlier outcomes than Browns versus Saints. Honestly, watching either of these two teams often leaves me wondering if they’re either wildly underrated, overrated, or both. I will admit the 43.5-point total opened up a bit lower than my intuition would suggest — and will often behoove us to appeal to the authority of betting markets whenever this split on results.

Saints vs. Browns Matchup Breakdown For Week 9 Fantasy Football

• Spread: Saints -1.5
• Total: 42.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): NO 22, CLE 19

*Fantasy Football Rankings listed are Fantasy Life's half-PPR consensus ranks at the time of writing.

Cleveland Browns Fantasy Preview For Week 9

Really appreciate this weekly forum on every game, providing a runway to lay out the rational bull case for Cleveland's relative success. Far too many people handwaved the early victories as a fluke when it wasn’t nearly so simple. We’re not having this conversation at all without crediting a galvanizing CLE defense, one missing far less of a beat than expected without game-wrecker Myles Garrett. Then, it’s been a matter of ball protection plus sack avoidance from Deshaun Watson. The first part’s pretty believable at this point, at least if you ask me. In fact, of the 13 NFL quarterbacks with +275 dropbacks, no one besides Watson has thrown fewer than five picks to his three. Sacks are another story and the driving force in Cleveland’s destiny.

In eight games played, the Browns allowed either at least five or fewer than two sacks in every game without exception or in-between.  Eating so many sacks not only ruins drives, but offsets the swing that turning those same losses into scrambles provides.  So long story long, Cleveland’s offense moves inversely to the opposing front seven. Since the Saints rank dead last in both total sacks (9) and pressure rate (28.9%), we can cue up our secondary pieces like Denzel Boston and Harold Fannin to go with a must-start KC Concepcion at this point, even with Shedeur Sanders in line for a possible start as Watson works his way through concussion protocol.

Cleveland hasn’t allowed a single passer over 182 yards in a month, but the competition level’s doing some heavy lifting. Remember, Bryce Young and Aaron Rodgers threw for over +290 yards in back-to-back weeks, so if the Saints get the offense going over the bye, there’s sneaky shootout potential here. The trifecta of Concepcion, Boston, and Fannin is responsible for soaking up just under 61% of targets this season — and we don’t want to miss out on +44 dropback games during bye weeks.

Got some social media pushback after proclaiming my love for Dylan Sampson as a top stopgap RB2 plug-in. Well, chalk one up to this blind squirrel finding a nut. The same O-line issues contributing to Watson’s failures regarding pressure also phase out the Browns' below-average run game (-0.16 EP/attempt, 3.9 yards/carry) any time they’re trailing. Therefore, this weekend we’re pivoting away from Sampson for Quinshon Judkins as a high-end RB2 once more. New Orleans’ run defense easily ranks among the NFL’s very worst, with bottom-3 grades in success rate (54.1%), yards/carry (4.8), yards after contact/rush (3.22), first-down rush rate (30.5%), and rushing TDs (11).

• Start: Quinshon Judkins (RB22), KC Concepcion (WR35), Denzel Boston (WR29), Harold Fannin Jr. (TE8)
• Sit: Dylan Sampson (RB36)
• Sleeper: N/A

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview For Week 9