TE Rankings Downgrades For Week 10 Fantasy Football: Brock Bowers & More

Let's get into the Week 10 TE rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 10 favorites and fades.

TE Rankings For Week 10 (Top 15)

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Rank	Player
1	George Kittle
2	Brock Bowers
3	Trey McBride
4	Isaiah Likely
5	Travis Kelce
6	Hunter Henry
7	Dalton Kincaid
8	Sam LaPorta
9	Harold Fannin
10	Tyler Warren
11	Tucker Kraft
12	T.J. Hockenson
13	Darren Waller
14	Brenton Strange
15	Kyle Pitts

Week 10 Matchup Downgrades in TE Rankings: Tucker Kraft vs. Vikings & Mark Andrews vs. Chargers

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Chargers are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for TEs.

Vikings: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (7.3)
Chargers: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-5.4)

Here be dragons.

Tucker Kraft (Packers) vs. Vikings: Since Week 3, Kraft without WR Jayden Reed (neck, IR) has been serviceable but unexceptional (8.8 fantasy points per game, 31-271-3 receiving, 43 targets with 4-13-0 rushing, 71 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and in Week 1 against the Vikings, he was acceptably forgettable (8.0 fantasy points, 3-65-0 receiving, 6 targets). The Vikings have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football, but throughout his career Kraft has been worse outdoors (7.2 fantasy points per game vs. 9.3 indoors).

Mark Andrews (Ravens) vs. Chargers: Andrews has been at his best this season with QB Lamar Jackson (7.5 fantasy points per game, 18-149-1 receiving, 24 targets in Weeks 1-4), but he has done almost nothing since (2.7 fantasy points per game, 13-88-0 receiving, 19 targets with 2-0-0 rushing). With recently acquired QB Jacoby Brissett, the Ravens are -5.5 favorites on their third home game in four weeks, and they at least have an amplified HFA because the Chargers are outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). Plus, the Ravens have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and the Chargers are without LB Denzel Perryman (undisclosed, IR) and SS Derwin James (hamstring, IR). But over the past 16 games, the Ravens have had the league's worst HFA (-13.23, per NFElo), this game has the slate's lowest total (38.5), and throughout his career Andrews has been worse in games Jackson hasn't started (7.5 fantasy points per game vs. 9.7 in Jackson's starts).

Scoring Downgrades in Week 10 TE Rankings: Brock Bowers vs. Seahawks & Trey McBride vs. Rams

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the TEs."

This week, the Raiders are No. 26 in implied team total (17.0 points), and the Cardinals are No. 28 (15.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Brock Bowers (Raiders) vs. Seahawks: Since making his season debut in Week 3, Bowers has dominated (17.4 fantasy points per game, 48-658-6 receiving, 69 targets, 100 Utilization Score), and the Raiders have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf), and indoors (vs. outdoors). But the offense could struggle now that the team has traded veteran QB Kirk Cousins to make way for rookie Fernando Mendoza (the market moved against the Raiders from +3.5 to +6.5), and throughout his career, Bowers has been at his best with Cousins (17.4 fantasy points per game vs. 12.1 with other QBs). Plus, the Seahawks are No. 3 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-3.9).

Trey McBride (Cardinals) vs. Rams: McBride has been his typical awesome self this year (14.0 fantasy points per game, 73-598-5 receiving, 94 targets, 97 Utilization Score), and last week he still had strong usage with QB Gardner Minshew (82% route rate, 32% target share, 50% end-zone target share). With WR Michael Wilson (neck) out, McBride could see even more work, and the Rams are on their third road game in four weeks. But McBride, since last year, has been at his best with traded QB Jacoby Brissett (16.1 fantasy points per game vs. 9.5 with other QBs), and the Cardinals will likely be without Minshew (elbow), so third-string rookie Carson Beck is in line to start. The Cardinals are +9.5 dogs at home, where they've had the No. 31 HFA over the past 16 games (-7.91), and the Rams are No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (-48.7%). When the Cardinals faced the Rams in Week 6, McBride managed just 8.8 fantasy points (7-53-0 receiving, 9 targets). McBride has enhanced risk in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Notes

Week 10 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Buccaneers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.