Underdog Pick 'Em For Week 2: Patrick Mahomes Goes Big

Week 1 was a super fun start to the season, matching the record for most points in the first week of a season in the Super Bowl era. Things didn't go quite as well for my Week 1 picks, I hit just one of three of my core picks, and one of my two longshot picks. Not horrendous, but we didn't make money so it's time to do better in Week 2.

As a quick recap, the picks I hit in Week 1 were Brenton Strange lower than 39.5 receiving yards and Juwan Johnson higher than 0.5 rushing/receiving TDs. I had two close misses, with Michael Wilson getting to 5 receptions when I had him for higher than 5.5. But that game also didn't play out how I expected with the Cardinals actually in a positive game script instead of a trailing one. MarShawn Lloyd also came close to going higher than 43.5 rushing yards, he was on 40 rushing yards when he received his final carry of the game. It ended up going for -3 yards, which just about sums up the day for the Packers. The only pick that wasn't close was Rico Dowdle for higher than 42.5 rushing yards.

Every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs. fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

Week 2 Underdog Core Pick 'Em Selections

Patrick Mahomes higher than 217.5 passing yards

The Chiefs delivered a divisional beatdown in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos, and now they get to turn around for another primetime game at home when they welcome the Indianapolis Colts for Sunday Night Football in Week 2.

Two things stood out to me about the Chiefs’ passing attack in Week 1. First, Patrick Mahomes had an extremely low average depth of throw at just 4.6 yards. This ranked 30th in the league and is significantly below his career average of 8.0. He also scrambled on four of his 33 dropbacks for a 12% scramble rate. That isn't much of an outlier for Mahomes, but it is notable considering that it was his first game back from a torn ACL.

The run-heavy offensive game plan, quick passing, and willingness to scramble suggest to me that Kansas City was game planning to neutralize the Broncos’ great pass rush, and they succeeded. They won't have the same concerns with an Indianapolis defensive line that is middle of the pack at best. I expect more passing, especially downfield, in this game. Kansas City barely had to throw late in the game, attempting just two passes in the final 13:25. A closer game should also push Kansas City to more pass attempts.

Our fantasy football projections have Mahomes for 226.5 passing yards, so a reasonable but not massive edge over his line on Underdog.

Colston Loveland higher than 0.5 rushing/receiving TD

This one is part projection and part narrative. The Bears offense went nuts in Week 1, but Loveland failed to record a single catch. Chicago is at home against a divisional rival in Week 2 and has the sixth-highest implied team total. Meanwhile, the Fantasy Life projections have Colston Loveland for north of 7 targets and 0.4 TDs, showing that our data team gives him a decent chance of scoring.

I still firmly believe that Loveland will be a major factor in the Bears offense this season and his goose egg in Week 1 will be one of those odd footnotes that we look back at and wonder how that happened. I also believe Ben Johnson is a player's coach—as evidenced by the schemed TD for Jahdae Walker to reward his blocking—and will want to keep one of his top playmakers happy by finding the end zone in Week 2.

Cam Ward lower than 189.5 passing yards

The Titans offense does not appear to have improved much from last year's disaster. In a game where they were trailing throughout and playing a suspect Jets defense, Cam Ward managed to throw for only 140 yards. That is despite the Titans having the highest absolute pass rate and the fourth-highest PROE. He now faces a much better Eagles defense and a Philly offense that will be more than happy to run the ball and play at a slow pace if they have the lead. Even if Tennessee goes with a pass-heavy approach again, I'm not sure that will translate to high total passing volume due to their inability to sustain drives or stop the Eagles offense.

The Fantasy Life projections have Ward for 179 passing yards, which honestly feels optimistic given what we have seen. Until I see sustained improvement from Ward and the Titans offense, I am likely to bet against him, especially when facing a good defense.

Week 2 Longshot Underdog Pick 'Ems

Jordan Addison longest reception higher than 24.5 yards

The Vikings are coming off of an impressive divisional win and now take on a Chicago Bears defense that looked very vulnerable to the deep passing attack. Jalen Coker torched their secondary for multiple long TDs. The Bears offense also looks like the real deal, so they should end up in plenty of high-scoring, back-and-forth games.

That type of game script bodes well for Jordan Addison. I also saw enough from Carson Wentz in Week 2 to say that I don't really care whether Kyler Murray or Wentz is at QB, both are capable of hitting Addison on a deep route. Despite not registering a catch in Week 1 and seeing only 2 targets, Addison did have a 93% route rate and an aDOT of 14 yards, both of which suggest his role as a full-time field stretcher hasn't changed. Facing a high-scoring offense and now missing one of their backfield duo, I think the Vikings will have to throw more this week and I am willing to bet that Addison connects on one of his downfield looks against this bad Bears defense.

Drake Maye higher than 0.5 rushing/receiving TDs

We saw Drake Maye's athleticism on full display in Week 1 with 7 rushes for 47 yards against that great Seattle defense. He will now face another elite defensive line as the Pittsburgh Steelers trot out one of the best trios of pass rushers in the NFL with TJ Watt, Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith. To make things more difficult, Maye is now without his top WR for an extended period of time.

The absence of A.J. Brown, coupled with the strong Pittsburgh pass rush, makes me think we will see Maye take off and run at a high rate again this week. You could play this via his rush attempts or rush yards, but I like going for the rush TD because the payout is quite a bit higher—this is the longshots section—and you get the possibility of scoring from either a scrambling TD or a QB sneak.