Week 10 Expert Fantasy Football Rankings vs. Consensus: Jordyn Tyson, Tucker Kraft & More
Fantasy

Week 10 Expert Fantasy Football Rankings vs. Consensus: Jordyn Tyson, Tucker Kraft & More

Alex Cupps breaks down his biggest outliers in his Week 10 fantasy football rankings compared to Fantasy Life's expert consensus.

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Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Cupps’ Cupboard! Every Friday this season, I’m going through my expert fantasy football rankings for the upcoming week of games - identifying the players I have the biggest deltas on compared to Fantasy Life’s expert consensus, along with examining advanced metrics and utilization data.

As someone with a data-heavy background and overall approach to fantasy football, my rankings are created using a blend of several inputs:

  • Fantasy Life weekly fantasy football projections, adjusted using fantasy football defense vs. position (DvP) rankings
  • Prediction market data (essentially taking the current prices on various yardages, touchdowns, receptions, etc., and creating implied fantasy point projections)
  • Vegas prop lines (rush/rec yards + receptions for pass catchers, pass/rush yards for quarterbacks). I will commonly refer to this as a player’s ‘Vegas Base’ projection: essentially, the floor a player offers without any touchdown odds

Using these sources as a baseline, I create my own hybrid projection system for each position and adjust from there.

Let’s get right into it.

Expert Fantasy Football Rankings Outliers vs. Fantasy Life Consensus Week 10 Rankings

Quarterback Ranking I'm Higher On

NO_saints-logo.svgTyler Shough

  • Fantasy Life: QB7
  • My Rank: QB5 (+2)

Tyler Shough is back in the top 5 in my quarterback rankings for Week 10 after a bit of a hiatus. The New Orleans Saints get the Panthers this week - a notably awesome spot for QBs in fantasy - as they rank 26th in Defense vs. Position (DvP) and allow 2.6 more points on average to the position.

The market data loves Shough here as well:

  • Fantasy Life’s DvP-adjusted projections: 21.7 points (QB4)
  • Prediction markets: 20.9 points (QB5)
  • Vegas base projection: 11.8 points (QB6)

I’m firing up Shough with confidence wherever I have him this week.

Quarterback Ranking I'm Lower On

LA_rams-logo.svgMatthew Stafford

  • Fantasy Life: QB14
  • My Rank: QB19 (-5)

Man … what an absolutely brutal runout for Stafford and the Rams over the past several weeks. Davante Adams goes down with a hamstring injury, Puka Nacua destroys his knee on the last play of the game in Week 9, and all of a sudden, Stafford is looking at the likes of Tutu Atwell and Konata Mumpfield as his top WR options this week.

Believe it or not, we don’t have a single sample of Stafford playing in a game without BOTH Puka and Davante over the past two seasons. They’ve both missed time, but never the same game. For that reason, we don’t really have much to go off of as a realistic expectation here.

The silver lining: Los Angeles gets the Cardinals in Week 10, who are currently dead last in DvP against the QB position, allowing a whopping 5.4 more points over average to the position.

Can Stafford make magic without his top options? Depends who you’re asking, but the market data doesn’t give me much hope:

  • Fantasy Life’s DvP-adjusted projections: 17.1 points (QB15)
  • Prediction markets: 15.4 points (QB19)
  • Vegas base projection: 8.6 points (QB24)

In a game without his top options and with Carson Beck’s first-ever NFL start, I’m not sure how much the Rams will need to pass. I’d be very motivated to look elsewhere at QB.

Running Backs I'm Ranking Higher For Week 10 Fantasy Football

ARI_cardinals-logo.svgTyler Allgeier

  • Fantasy Life: RB28
  • My Rank: RB24 (+4)

We just talked about Stafford’s sketchy outlook in week 10 - looking on the other side of the ball, I’m actually pretty into playing Tyler Allgeier this week.

Let’s get this out up front - the matchup is absolutely brutal. The Rams rank 4th in DvP against the RB position, allowing nearly 3 points less on average to the position. But even so, Allgeier’s data looks surprisingly solid this week:

  • Fantasy Life’s DvP-adjusted projections: 8.0 points (RB28)
  • Prediction markets: 9.6 points (RB24)
  • Vegas base projection: 6.6 points (RB21)

The Cardinals have a bit of the Rams thing going on this week at the wide receiver position as well. Beck will be going into his NFL debut with his top 3 receiver options (outside of McBride) as rookie Reggie Virgil, Simi Fehoko, and Devin Duvernay. Not a promising cast, which bodes well for Allgeier’s involvement in the short-area passing game too.

Even in a tough matchup, I’m looking at Allgeier as a serviceable RB2 option in week 10.

CLE_browns-logo.svgDylan Sampson

  • Fantasy Life: RB30
  • My Rank: RB35 (+5)

Quinshon Judkins managers … look away.

Since Sampson returned from IR in Week 7, he’s carved out a significant role in the Cleveland Browns offense. He hasn’t really eaten into Judkins’ rushing work (5 attempts per game to Judkins’ 14.3), but he’s really making his money in the receiving game.

Over the past three weeks, Sampson is running 24.3 routes per game - this mark puts him at RB3 overall on the season, only behind Chuba Hubbard and Dameon Pierce. He’s also averaging 3 receptions per game and 40.3 receiving yards per game - RB2, only behind Ashton Jeanty.

The floor is very, very real with Dylan Sampson as a mid-range RB3:

  • Fantasy Life’s DvP-adjusted projections: 6.1 points (RB33)
  • Prediction markets: 7.7 points (RB30)
  • Vegas base projection: 5.9 points (RB24)

As you can see, his Vegas floor projection comes in as a back-end RB2, simply because he has such high passing game involvement. Especially in PPR formats, I really like Sampson in this spot.

Wide Receiver I'm Ranking Higher Than Consensus For Week 10 Fantasy Football

NO_saints-logo.svgJordyn Tyson

  • Fantasy Life: WR38
  • My Rank: WR28 (+10)

I’m the high man on Jordyn Tyson out of all my peers at Fantasy Life this week, and I believe it’s for good reason.

Tyson was eased into his first NFL action last week, where he only ran 35% of the routes, but he looked great when he was on the field - drawing 4 targets on 16 routes (0.25 TPRR) and 1.86 YPRR. I anticipate the route participation to tick up by quite a bit in Week 10.

The bet on Tyson this week stems from several areas. First, I mentioned earlier how high I am on Shough and the entire Saints offense in this matchup against a beatable Panthers defense.

Second, the market projections are in alignment with me when it comes to a jump in Tyson’s involvement here:

  • Prediction markets: 9.0 points (WR21)
  • Vegas base projection: 6.4 points (WR23)

Tyson comes in as a back-end WR2 across the markets this week, and I don’t want to miss the breakout in a smash spot. Fire him up; it’s time.

Wide Receiver I'm Lower On In My Week 10 Fantasy Rankings

JAC_jaguars-logo.svgParker Washington

  • Fantasy Life: WR10
  • My Rank: WR13 (-3)

This is a tough one. I love Parker Washington as a talent, but he’s really cursed by his offense being simply *too* good to highly leverage him on a weekly basis.

This season, in the four games where Jacksonville has won by multiple scores:

  • 2.75 receptions/game
  • 12.5 FP/game
  • 8.45 xFP/game

As odd as it is to say, it could have been SO much worse over these four games for Washington. He’s consistently broken long plays and made long touchdown catches in these matchups to salvage his fantasy days.

I’m worried we might see more of the same in week 10. The Jags play the 1-8 Tennessee Titans and are currently 10.5-point favorites. Even though the Titans are a smash matchup on paper (dead last in DvP against WRs), as unfortunate as it sounds, it’s hard to see a ton of pure volume upside for Washington. The market agrees:

  • Prediction markets: 11.9 points (WR14)
  • Vegas base projection: 8.5 points (WR15)

I’m not telling you to sit Parker Washington, but I’d temper expectations in a game that sets up as another potential blowout win for Jacksonville.

Tight End I'm Ranking Higher Than Consensus For Week 10 Fantasy Football

GB_packers-logo.svgTucker Kraft

  • Fantasy Life: TE11
  • My Rank: T8 (+3)

The reason I’m higher than consensus on Tucker Kraft this week is simple: the Minnesota Vikings defense is ridiculously good. Kraft has the lowest aDOT of the big three receivers in Green Bay at 5.4 yards downfield, and I think he’ll find himself with a comfy volume floor in this matchup.

Don’t get it twisted, though - the Vikings are not an easy matchup against the TE position by any means. They’re currently 9th in DvP against the position, allowing nearly 2 points less per game. That aside, the market is relatively bullish on him here:

  • Prediction markets: 8.5 points (TE8)
  • Vegas base projection: 6.0 points (TE9)

By no means do I think Kraft is going to light the world on fire this week (I’m not sure anyone can against this Vikings defense), but it’s not enough of a negative for me to consider taking him out of my lineup.

TE I'm Ranking Lower In My Week 10 Fantasy Rankings

CLE_browns-logo.svgHarold Fannin

  • Fantasy Life: TE9
  • My Rank: TE12 (-3)

This one pains me. Harold Fannin might be my favorite player in the entire league. But I’m a bit worried about his outlook in week 10.

First of all, let’s look at last week. Fannin finished with a strong 12.2 fantasy points, but most of it came on a last-minute touchdown catch-and-run. He only has 2.9 expected fantasy points, and that 9.3 points over expectation made him the biggest overperformer of all TEs last week.

The matchup scares me a bit as well. Although Houston has actually been a relatively soft matchup for QBs and WRs this season, they’ve been strong against TEs - the Texans are currently 6th in DvP against the position, allowing nearly 2.75 points less on average.

The market data comes in a bit lower as well:

  • Fantasy Life’s DvP-adjusted projections: 6.2 points (TE22)
  • Prediction markets: 7.6 points (TE13)
  • Vegas base projection: 5.4 points (TE11)

In a similar vein to Tucker Kraft, Fannin has a rough matchup this week. I think we’re overreacting to Kraft and underreacting to Fannin here. Still a borderline TE1 for me this week, but I’m tempering expectations.

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