Week 10 Scheme Advantages & Disadvantages For Fantasy Football: Zay Flowers About To Bloom
Zain Dhanani breaks down several scheme and matchup advantages and disadvantages for Week 10.
It’s Week 10, so naturally we’re looking at the 3rd-string RB on the Patriots, an RB who was on a different team’s practice squad, and, well, Kyle McCord (this week’s Joey Fagnano?).
Keep an eye on our fantasy football rankings and fantasy football projections as the injury reports come in.
Fantasy Football Scheme & Matchup Advantages I Like in Week 10
Zay Flowers vs Chargers Coverage
The Chargers have an F in my slot coverage grades, and Flowers has run 63% of his routes from the slot over his last three games. He’s averaging 3.47 yards per route against Cover 3, the coverage Los Angeles plays most (32% of dropbacks).
Flowers drew 40% of Baltimore’s first reads last week. I have him at WR10 with Jacoby Brissett taking over Monday night.
Zach Charbonnet vs Raiders Run Defense
Charbonnet took 64% of Seattle’s RB carries against Arizona, up from 38% in his first game back.
Las Vegas has allowed 5.17 yards per RB carry and 2.13 yards before contact per carry, both the most in the NFL. Seattle’s run blocking has a B+ in my grades against the Raiders’ F in run defense. I’m starting Charbonnet as an RB2 (RB15).
Audric Estimé vs Panthers Run Defense
I’d start Estimé as a low-end RB2 (RB24) if Travis Etienne and CJ Donaldson are out again. He took 68% of the Saints’ RB carries in his debut against Cleveland and scored from the 2-yard line.
Carolina has allowed 1.58 yards before contact per RB carry (3rd most). The Panthers have stopped just 12.1% of those carries at or behind the line of scrimmage (lowest in the NFL).
Kyle Pitts vs Chiefs TE Coverage
Kansas City has played two-high on 64% of dropbacks over its last three games (5th most). Pitts is averaging 1.48 yards per route against two-high this season and 0.86 against single-high.
Pitts’ route share went from 65% in Week 7 to 82% last week. He’s run at least 8 routes inline in each of his last three games, and Kansas City allows a target on 24% of routes by inline TEs (most in the NFL). He’s a start for me (TE11).
Patrick Mahomes vs Falcons Man Coverage
Mahomes is my QB8 against Atlanta. The Falcons have played man on 41% of dropbacks over their last three games (2nd most), and he’s averaging 0.41 EPA per dropback against man this season (0.11 against zone).
Drew Lock vs Raiders Pass Defense
Lock is streamable (QB15). Seattle expects him to play through an oblique injury with Sam Darnold out again.
The Raiders have allowed 0.22 EPA per dropback this season (3rd most), and their 27% pressure rate over the last three games is the lowest in the NFL. Lock has averaged 0.56 EPA per dropback from a clean pocket.
Corey Kiner vs Lions Run Defense
Kiner is in line to lead New England in carries with TreVeyon Henderson ruled out and Rhamondre Stevenson expected to miss the game with a knee injury. He’s averaged 4.88 yards per carry on 50 attempts, including 3.52 after contact. I’m starting him as an RB2 (RB21).
Jaylen Warren vs Bengals Run Defense
Warren ran for 127 yards on 17 carries the first time these teams played. He leads backs with at least 40 carries in yards after contact per attempt (4.09), and Cincinnati has allowed 3.32 (7th most). I have him as a low-end RB1 (RB12).
Bryce Young vs Saints Pass Defense
New Orleans plays Cover 3 on 51% of dropbacks (most in the NFL). Young has averaged 0.09 EPA per dropback on 110 plays against that coverage. The Saints also have the sixth-lowest pressure rate (32%). I have Young as a low-end QB1 (QB11).
Aaron Rodgers vs Bengals Pass Defense
Rodgers is streamable (QB16) against a Cincinnati defense that blitzes on 18% of dropbacks, the lowest rate in the NFL. His EPA per dropback goes from −0.37 against the blitz to 0.07 when defenses send four or fewer rushers.
Fantasy Football Scheme & Matchup Disadvantages That Are Tougher in Week 10
Tre Tucker vs Seahawks Coverage
Seattle plays more Cover 6 than anyone (31% of dropbacks). Tucker has 26 yards on 41 routes against it this season.
The Seahawks have generated pressure on 41% of dropbacks (2nd most). Tucker’s yards per route fall from 2.46 to 1.03 when his QB is pressured. I’m sitting him in Fernando Mendoza’s first NFL start (WR44).
Caleb Douglas vs Colts Outside Coverage
Douglas has run 81% of his routes out wide over his last three games. The Colts have allowed 1.21 yards per route to outside WRs (4th fewest).
Kyle McCord is in line for his first NFL start with Malik Willis on IR. Douglas has run every route this season with Willis. He’s a flex for me (WR30).
Brenton Strange vs Titans TE Coverage
Tennessee plays Quarters on 23% of dropbacks (4th most). Strange has 2 targets for 8 yards on 24 routes against it this season.
Strange’s route share was back up to 77% last week and he drew 2 targets. He’s accounted for 12.3% of Jacksonville’s first reads over his last three games. He’s a high-end TE2.
Kirk Cousins vs Packers Pass Rush
Minnesota brought Cousins back at the deadline and has yet to name a starter. I’d sit him in 1-QB leagues if he starts at Lambeau Field (QB23). Green Bay has pressured QBs on 41% of dropbacks over its last three games (6th most). Cousins averaged −0.70 EPA per pressured dropback in his final three games with Las Vegas.
Quinshon Judkins vs Texans
Cleveland is a 4.5-point home underdog against Houston. Judkins played 37% of the snaps last week and ran 4 routes to Dylan Sampson’s 29. I have Judkins as an RB3 (RB29).
Michael Penix vs Chiefs Two-High Coverage
Kansas City plays two-high on 57% of dropbacks (8th most). Penix has averaged −0.09 EPA per dropback against two-high this season and 0.09 against single-high. I’m sitting him in 1-QB leagues (QB21).
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