Week 3 Scheme Advantages & Disadvantages For Fantasy Football: Patrick Mahomes Back On Top

Two weeks into the season, we can start putting the routes and personnel packages alongside what we expected from these teams coming in. I'm looking for offenses that can give their players time and space to work, and a few tougher matchups where I'd lower expectations despite the playing time.

The goal is to give you some fringe players who you can consider starting over more reliable options who you should consider fading.

All of these calls will be included in my fantasy football rankings.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Matchups I Like

Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Dolphins Defense

I like the matchup Patrick Mahomes has against Miami this week. The Dolphins rank last in pass rush against Kansas City's No. 13 pass protection, which should give Mahomes ample time to find his options in the passing game. Kansas City's time to throw has averaged 2.59 seconds through two weeks against a league average of 2.90, so HC Andy Reid hasn't needed Mahomes holding the ball for long stretches to get these passes out.

Zach Sieler is in the 21st percentile in the blended grades after 42 graded rush snaps this season, and Zeek Biggers is at the bottom of that group as well. I don't expect Miami to consistently push Mahomes off his spot with that interior rush.

Reid used motion on 20 of Travis Kelce's 66 routes, per PFF—about 30% (13% higher than the positional average). On 18 of those routes, Kelce was in motion while the ball was snapped, making it harder for a defender to jam him. It’s a great way to deploy this version of Kelce.

Kelce has earned 16 targets through two games and leads Kansas City's WRs and TEs in TPRR and YPRR. I like him working across the field against Miami, especially with Mahomes having ample time to survey the defense.

The Dolphins also rank No. 31 in coverage, so this sets up nicely for all the pass catchers outside of Kelce.

Xavier Worthy hasn't done much with his 90% route participation, averaging just 0.57 YPRR so far. Miami has played single-high on 59% of its dropbacks, and Worthy averaged 1.73 YPRR against those looks last season. I'm using him as a WR3 and have Kelce as a top-5 TE this week.

Rashee Rice is still a start for me here, although the Receiver Score model does not like him ROS. He gets a great matchup in the slot where the Dolphins grade out as an “F” in coverage grade in my blended grades.

Eagles Pass Offense vs. Bears Defense

You were probably starting DeVonta Smith already, but this is a big matchup upgrade—he’s a WR1 against Chicago. He's earned a third of Philadelphia's targets through two games, with 18 on 74 routes, and should spend much of this game working against Jaylon Johnson and whoever the Bears use to replace Tyrique Stevenson. Regardless of who it is, the Bears’ outside cornerbacks in my model grade out as an “F”.

Philadelphia has Smith lined up outside on 82% of his routes, per PFF, with 21 verticals and 14 in-breakers in his route tree. If Chicago's corners give him cushion to protect against the deep ball, Jalen Hurts can find him breaking back inside. Smith can attack both areas of the field, and Chicago has struggled to get to the QB before those routes develop.

Dennis Allen wanted fewer mental mistakes and better control of the line of scrimmage after Week 1, but Chicago still has the worst pass rush grade in my model as well. The Bears have sent at least 5 rushers on 40% of their dropbacks, above the league average of 30%. Allen is already trying to create pressure with extra rushers, but it's been ineffective and just takes extra bodies away from the pass catchers. The Eagles rank 14th in my pass-protection model, so they should have no trouble giving extra time to Hurts to find his guys.

Speaking of Hurts’ guys, Makai Lemon's route participation through Week 2 sits at 79%, which is second highest on the team. Now with Dallas Goedert missing time, there’s more reasons to leave him on the field over a TE since he’s operating primarily from the slot, so we should see that route share tick up to potentially 90%. The problem is, he hasn’t been very productive with his chances, so I’d still leave him on the bench. Receiver Score does like his role long term. If you are in a pinch, however, playing a receiver against this Bears defense is the antidote you need to cure a broken lineup.

Dontayvion Wicks has been more of a target earner than Lemon, but his route share trended down in Week 2. He will also face the porous outside corners I addressed earlier in the Smith section. Since 2025, Wicks has a 32% TPRR and 2.25 YPRR against Cover 1, which the Bears run at the second-highest clip in the NFL. Wicks is also a strong deeper or DFS option.

Stream against the Bears defense for the foreseeable future.

Dalton Schultz vs. Colts Defense

I like Dalton Schultz working against Indianapolis' linebackers, slot corner and safeties, who all have a grade of “F” in my model. Nick Caley has used Schultz in the slot on nearly half his routes and they like to use him in motion as well. It’s almost certain that Schultz will see favorable coverage matchups and free releases throughout the game.

Even though Houston is a bottom-5 pass-protecting unit, the Colts’ pass rush is the 20th best unit per my model, so that should help C.J. Stroud stay upright and funnel opportunities to Schultz for a second straight week.

Nico Collins remains unlikely to play this week, so I expect Schultz to operate as the team’s primary pass catcher, which is fantasy gold for TEs.

From a coverage standpoint, the Colts play zone on 58% of their opponents’ dropbacks so far this season and Schultz annihilates zone coverage since 2025 to the tune of 26% TPRR and 2.17 YPRR, which are easily top-end TE1 numbers.

Chuba Hubbard vs. Browns Run Defense

Chuba Hubbard is a low-end RB1 for me against Cleveland, especially with Jonathon Brooks now on IR with a groin injury. Brooks had taken 26% of the backfield opportunities, and I expect Hubbard to pick up nearly all of those opportunities.

The Browns have allowed 4.58 YPC and rank No. 26 in my model's run-defense calculation. On top of that the Browns rank 30th in YPC against zone concept runs and Hubbard has run a zone concept run play on 59% of his attempts (and performed very well on these concepts), so there’s a clear edge here.

Hubbard has also been very involved in the pass game to date and without Brooks. I only expect that role to grow given that AJ Dillon doesn’t offer much in that aspect of the game.

We’re getting a bell cow in a game where the team should win with a strong matchup advantage—his one is easy.

Tougher Fantasy Football Matchups in Week 3

Commanders Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

I liked Washington's pass catchers against Dallas last week, but Seattle is a much tougher matchup up front. Marcus Mariota will start after Jayden Daniels' elbow injury, and the Commanders' No. 29 pass protection has to deal with the No. 5 pass rush.

Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams can get after the guards inside, with Derick Hall coming off the edge. Seattle has sent at least five rushers on only 20% of its dropbacks against a 30% league average. If those linemen win their blocks (they should), the Seahawks can pressure Mariota and still leave plenty of defenders in coverage.

Seattle has played two-high on 68% of its dropbacks and used Cover-6 on 44%, per PFF—quarters coverage on one side and a deep half on the other to help protect against the deep ball. Mariota will have to work underneath if Seattle keeps those safeties over the top. Washington needs time for Terry McLaurin's deeper routes to develop, and I don't love the chances of that happening consistently here.

McLaurin has 12 overs and 6 drags in his route tree, so there are still ways to get him moving across the field. His 2.93 YPRR against zone last season and 86% route participation keep him in my WR3 range. I have more concern with Stefon Diggs on a 60% route share, particularly from the slot where he could see Devon Witherspoon.

The run game gets Seattle's No. 1 run defense against Washington's No. 27 run blocking. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has just under half the backfield opportunities, 22% route participation and no RB third-down snaps so far. If the Commanders fall behind, the carries he needs could give way to Rachaad White's passing-down work, but even White will be tough to put into lineups in this one.

George Pickens vs. Ravens Coverage

I'm downgrading George Pickens against Baltimore this week. The Ravens have played two-high on 63% of their dropbacks, which directly hurts a player like Pickens since it is designed to take away big plays over the top.

Pickens averaged 1.64 YPRR against two-high last season, so I'd lower expectations for the big plays against this coverage. He did much more damage against single-high at 3.43 YPRR, where there's less help over the top for a corner trying to stay with him down the sideline.

The Ravens are also one of the top teams in overall team coverage grade in my model, so the combination makes this one to fade in DFS situations.

Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris vs. Bills Coverage

Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris are two other receivers I would avoid relying on this week. Buffalo has played two-high on 59% of its dropbacks and used man coverage on only 10% against a league average of 21%. That leaves a lot of zone coverage for receivers who haven't been particularly productive against it.

Johnston averaged 1.38 YPRR against zone on 318 routes last season, and his two-high production was even lower at 1.06 YPRR. The playing time is also up-and-down—he’s a 60-70% route-share player and splitting with Harris when Ladd McConkey was fully healthy during most of Week 1. Playing time and coverage make this tough for QJ.

You can essentially take what I wrote for Johnston and apply the same thesis to Harris as well.

TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Jaguars Run Defense

TreVeyon Henderson's 39-yard touchdown run against Pittsburgh showed how New England can get him into space. Morgan Moses pulled across the formation on tackle-power, Jared Wilson climbed to the second level and Henderson had room to accelerate into the secondary. I like what Henderson can do on those runs, but New England needs its blockers healthy enough to open those lanes against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars rank No. 6 in my model’s run defense grade against New England's No. 20 run-blocking unit. The Patriots lost Mike Onwenu to an ankle injury during Week 2, and Moses has been limited with a foot injury. Losing another blocker from that group would make it even harder to give Henderson room to get loose.

Henderson's 16 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown in his return were encouraging, but we can’t be certain on his playing time moving forward and whether the staff simply decided to punish Stevenson in bad weather because of his fumble for that game only or if this will persist.

The same arguments exist for Stevenson, but now we have a very strong reason to be worried about playing time. Unfortunately it’s a poor matchup with ambiguous playing-time splits in this committee, so I lean toward sitting both.