Week 3 WR/CB Matchups For Fantasy Football: Tetairoa McMillan, Parker Washington Pointing Up

I’ve mentioned quite a few times that I enjoy playing poker. But surprisingly, I’m not a numbers guy when I sit down at a table. Sure, I know win rates and how to calculate hand odds on the fly depending on hole and community cards. My interest is my opponent, though. Seeing how they play, getting information on their style and making adjustments that’ll benefit me long term.

We should be applying a similar process right now. The last two weeks of coverage data are just the start. Smaller pieces of the larger puzzle. Still, as we review what’s happened, the information should guide us to the best receiver matchups for the upcoming week.

WR/CB Matchups to Target for Fantasy Football in Week 3

Quick Note (Week 3 Version): As I mentioned last week, I built a model that uses our rankings, projections, Dwain’s UR Score, on-field production, and coverage metrics to measure each WR/CB matchup. Now that I’ve got a couple of 2026 data points, and as we get more, I’ll be able to lean on what we’re seeing this season versus looking back to ’25.

Tetairoa McMillan at Browns

Honestly, the real question regarding Tetairoa McMillan’s fantasy prospects is how much you believe in Bryce Young’s early-season push to be fantasy relevant.

You know Bryce Young is feelin it when he attempts and hits this throw

And how did T-Mac keep his feet in bounds

So. Good. pic.twitter.com/ZHlwRO8nec
— Edgar Salmingo, Jr. ✌🏽 (@PanthersAnalyst) September 21, 2026

I’m framing it this way because me rattling off his usage stats won’t sway you. That’s especially true when Jalen Coker has accrued more looks (depending on your charting service) with a greater catchable-target rate. Young can lob the ball toward McMillan as often as he wants. But if a third or more are going to be contested or on the boundary, the volatility isn’t worth banking on for a big game. However, through two games, Young’s output isn’t a fluke.

Passing Success Rate (when pressured): 27.9% (2025), 33.3% (2026)
EPA per Dropback: -0.31, +0.02
Completion Percentage Over Expected: -1.86% , -0.27%

Marked improvements across the board for Young when under pressure. Plus, turning our focus to McMillan, the second-yard WR has taken over 40% of Young’s pass attempts when the protection has broken down. Despite still primarily working on the outside, McMillan was up to a 30.0% target rate in Week 2, which aligns with one of the weaknesses of the Browns’ defense.

Yards Per Game (allowed to outside WRs): 22nd
Defensive EPA per Play: 19th
Passing Success Rate Allowed: 22nd

Trevor Lawrence pushed the ball to Parker Washington and Brian Thomas on the perimeter in Week 1 for 93 yards. Baker Mayfield tried the same with Ted Hurst and Tez Johnson the following week. Washington is the only one with the same route-running skills as McMillan, opening up a floor-and-ceiling opportunity for the Panthers’ WR1.

Parker Washington vs. Patriots

My skepticism regarding Parker Washington’s early-round ADP was the timing of his breakout last season. BTJ and Travis Hunter were out. Jakobi Meyers was new. Now, all have returned healthy and/or with a fresh contract. But at least through two weeks, Washington has picked up where he left off in ’25.

To be clear, one big week isn’t driving Washington’s contextualized usage profile. Using our UR game logs, we can see Washington’s been near or above a 30% target rate in both games with over 40% of Lawrence’s air yards. In short, there’s not much debate about who’s the WR1. And coupled with Washington’s on-field deployment, there’ll be plenty of chances for him to cause problems for the Patriots’ secondary.

New England’s slot corner, Marcus Jones, is already in the top 10 in catches and yardage allowed. But Washington has only earned a third of his looks from the inside. Let’s assume he’ll be in the Z position, away from CB Christian Gonzalez. CB Charles Woods is yet to force a pass breakup, while allowing the second-highest catch rate on the team.

Washington’s talent has already boosted him to the top of the Jaguars’ pecking order. And playing with a high-end QB is the situation we want to target. But with a positive defensive environment to boot, we should treat Washington like a low-end WR1 for Week 3.

Sneaky WR/CB Matchups for Fantasy Football in Week 3

Another Quick Note: As I’ve been saying, the guys listed here are the receivers you hover over for a second before moving onto your starting roster. They’re the “I’m not sure” options. But given their splash plays and upcoming situation, you could defend the decision to start them this weekend.

Dontayvion Wicks at Bears

Hold on. Wait just one second. Read the text in this tweet.

Oh, and then watch the highlight clips of Dontayvion Wicks.

Through 2 weeks, Dontayvion Wicks has without question been the Eagles best newcomer, and Sunday was another example of why.

What’s even crazier: EVERY SINGLE CATCH he’s made this season has resulted in either a first down or a TD.

And on Sunday, every one of his catches came… pic.twitter.com/M5bMC4ZVCs
— Fly Eagles Fly Bets (@Fly_EaglesBets) September 22, 2026

Of course, I had to verify the claim. Having a 100% first-down-per-catch rate is impressive. And I know it’s only been two weeks. You can use Wicks’ 7 total receptions on the season as a way to poke even more holes in the assertion. But his six conversions and a score are still true. He’s been a critical piece of the Eagles’ passing game. And his usage (mostly) backs up this idea.

The one thing that concerns me is his dip in routes against the Titans. That game came down to the wire. Plus, Dallas Goedert went out with an injury in the first quarter. Philadelphia used 11-personnel groupings on 79.2% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks (a tick up from 71.1% in W1), too. And yet, Wicks ran three fewer routes last Sunday. However, he’s been the most-reliable pass catcher besides DeVonta Smith.

(When QB Pressured) Target Rate: 25.0%, T-1st
Air Yard Share: 41.8%, 1st
First Downs per Route Run: 13.6%, 1st

Smith missed Thursday’s practice with a hamstring injury, and the team will be facing the Bears. Chicago’s defense is one of six teams with bottom-12 marks in pressure rate and passing YPG allowed to WRs. Let’s assume either Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum gives the Eagles an extra possession or two. Either way, Wicks will benefit from the environment.

Deebo Samuel vs. Cardinals

Fantasy managers will gravitate toward Deebo Samuel, as Mike Evans is yet to practice as of Friday morning. But Samuel’s underlying opportunity metrics should point us in the same direction.

It’s worth noting that Evans still had the same route rate in Week 2. Still, Samuel was on the field more with the 49ers’ WR1. That’s partly due to Demarcus Robinson exiting early after an ankle sprain. Regardless, Samuel had his usual diet of short-area looks with a 100% catchable-target rate for the second consecutive week. With more likely coming against the Cardinals.

Arizona’s secondary sits in the Bottom 10 for defensive EPA per play and completion percentage allowed on throws of ten air yards or less. I filtered for those specifically as that’s Samuel’s typical aDOT. There’s still a chance Evans suits up this weekend, but Robinson’s absence should lead to more opportunities for Samuel.

WR/CB Matchups to Avoid for Fantasy Football in Week 3

Final Note: Taking the time to foot-stomp the idea that “avoid” doesn’t mean bench. Based on their environment, we should look to other players on the roster to help you win the week.

Emeka Egbuka vs. Vikings

So, Week 2 set off alarm bells in my head after looking at Emeka Egbuka’s workload.

To be clear, one game isn’t a referendum on the entire season. But fantasy managers should note the potential for ups and downs. After leading the Bucs in passes thrown his way against the Bengals, he fell behind rookie Ted Hurst last Sunday. And with more looks downfield, we got more volatility than efficiency. Now, he has to go up against the Vikings’ defense, where the secondary isn’t his only issue.

(MIN) Pressure Rate (on passes to WRs): 40.0%
(Mayfield) EPA per Dropback Under Pressure: -0.77, 28th
Sack Rate Under Pressure: 36.8%, 29th

DC Brian Flores’ ability to pick apart offensive lines and create pressure has been problematic for every opponent. Even worse for Egbuka, his QB has been susceptible to catastrophic mistakes under duress. You’re still starting Egbuka looking for a big play or a short TD, but I’d look at any other options on your team to supplement any drop in output.

DK Metcalf vs. Bengals

I’m trying to understand DK Metcalf’s 2026 season and coming up with more questions than answers.

Michael Pittman Jr. sat out Week 2 with a foot injury. You’d think more targets would consolidate around Metcalf, but his target rate remained unchanged. Germie Bernard walked right into a +20% target share.

Well, OK, but Metcalf’s aDOT fell by two-thirds. Again, the assumption would be easier targets. I’d take a drop in air yards for more receiving yards. But Metcalf’s catchable-target rate got worse. There was no move to add more slot reps and get him the ball in space. Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek got those. And unfortunately for Metcalf, his archetype plays right into the Bengals’ strength on defense.

Passing YPG Allowed (to outside WRs): 8th
Defensive EPA per Play: 10th
Passing Success Rate: 14th

On top of having an above-average pass rush, Cincinnati has been limiting perimeter receivers to start the season. Accordingly, I’d look elsewhere on the Steelers’ roster (i.e., Pat Freiermuth) for production.