Week 4 Fantasy Football Smash Spots: Why Ashton Jeanty Is Set To Explode

In this week's Fantasy Football Smashes, we're going back to a polarizing rookie RB and smashing the start button on Ashton Jeanty. “Get in Losers!!”

You know the rules: We don’t blink, we don’t flinch, and we certainly don’t panic drop these guys for every one-game wonder that hits the waiver wire.

And click here if you're looking for our sister column, Week 4 Stashes. We rhyme!

Week 4 Fantasy Football Smashes

Ashton Jeanty RB, Las Vegas Raiders

I won’t pretend that I was a fan of the Raiders taking Ashton Jeanty at 6 overall in the draft. They needed help elsewhere, but especially on the O-Line, where they’ve been a mess to date and rank dead last (32/32) in Run Block Win Rate (via ESPN Analytics).

The poor O-Line has, unshockingly, hurt Jeanty, who has averaged just 3.1 YPC to date and has yet to break a run of longer than 18 yards. For fantasy purposes, he’s now down to RB33 in terms of year-to-date scoring. Gross.

Still, if you’re thinking of benching him for his poor start, I’d recommend some patience because the matchup in Week 4 vs. the Bears is as pristine as it gets for a bell-cow back.

Through three weeks, Chicago ranks the following defensively against the rush (via RBSDM.com):

• EPA per play vs the rush: 23rd/32 (-0.028)
• Success Rate vs the rush: 28th/32 (46.2%)
• FP allowed to opposing RBs: 29th/32 (26.5 FP per game)

Even last week, in a poor game script, the Cowboys RB tandem of Javonte Williams and a semi-washed Miles Sanders went for 117 yards on the ground (6.15 YPC) vs the Bears.

If you took Jeanty early and have been struggling, you owe it to yourself to get him in the lineup this week. If he goes off, you can still trade him next week, with his value higher, and if he somehow busts in this A+ spot, well… at least you can go to sleep Sunday night knowing you tried.

Prediction: Jeanty goes for 100+ yards rushing, averages over 5.0 YPC, and scores a TD (and you still sleep well). — Ulrich

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots

The New England Patriots RB room produced the following stat lines in Week 3:

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 4 car, 18 yards; 3 rec, 38 yards, 2 fumbles
• Antonio Gibson: 7 carries, 28 yards, 1 fumble
• TreVeyon Henderson: 11 carries, 28 yards; 3 rec. 19 yards 0 fumbles

Henderson not only led the Patriots' backfield in touches vs the Steelers, but he was also the only Patriots RB not to lose a fumble. Mike Vrabel has already said he’s sticking by Stevenson, but I’m not sure we need to be a mind reader to determine that Henderson’s touches can only go up from here.

If that happens, here is a little snippet of what you could see, usage-wise, from Henderson this week in a great matchup vs the Panthers, who rank 24th in EPA per play vs the rush this season.

Our rankers have Henderson as the consensus RB30 this week, but given the matchup and situation, his upside certainly could see him finish as a top 10RB in full PPR scoring. It’s a spot where I would lean towards starting him over other RB2 candidates if the decision were close.

Prediction: Henderson goes for 100 rush/rec yards and scores a TD (and the Patriots release Antonio Gibson on Monday). — Ulrich

Caleb Williams QB, Chicago Bears

Perspective is everything in Chicago. I don’t know if a 52-21 loss can age well, but I sure feel much better about the Bears than I did a week ago. Especially after watching Detroit run all over Baltimore this past Monday night.

As for Chicago, Ben Johnson’s boys responded by dismantling the Dallas defense in a 31-14 win. More importantly, Caleb Williams had himself a day. The second-year quarterback tossed a clean four touchdowns without an interception, while earning 29.1 FP (0.5 PPR) for those who put their weekly matchup in his hands.

Here’s the rub. We are only three weeks into the season, and this is the second time a struggling quarterback played way over his head against the Cowboys defense. It doesn’t help that the first one (Russell Wilson) is already benched. The Cowboy’s defense is that bad. They are ranked 31st in both EPA/Play and EPA/Pass (Hint for fantasy managers: the Dolphins are worse).

I’m comfortable attributing Williams’ soft launch to facing a lay-up in terms of secondaries. However, I see no reason why we aren’t in store for a repeat performance this week. Williams pops off as the consensus QB6 in our Week 4 rankings, mainly due to this advantageous matchup.

Las Vegas Raiders defense:

• Pass/EPA: 0.19 (27th)
• Yards per passing attempt: 7.6 (27th)
• ADoT: 8.3 (25th)
• Avg. FP allowed to opposing QB’s: 20 (25th)

Not only should Williams be able to shred this Raiders defense through the air, there is a high potential for rushing output as well. In Washington’s 41-point outburst against Las Vegas, Marcus Mariota gained 40 yards and a TD on the ground. — Drumheller

Jordan Love QB, Green Bay Packers

Love was terrible last week. He was sacked four 4-times and averaged just 1.9 air yards per attempt, which was apparently a two-year record for futility in a single NFL game (via @IHartitz on X.com).

So why are we targeting this guy for a quick bounce back? Simple. The Cowboys are on the docket. Through three games, few defenses have been worse than Dallas in defending the pass. They come in ranked 31st in EPA per dropback and have allowed a league-worst 28.1 FP per game to opposing QBs.

Dallas has suffered due to a poor pass rush (27th in sacks), but starting corner Trevon Diggs has also had a huge drop-off in play. Via PFF, Diggs ranks just 119th in coverage grade, out of 152 graded CBs on the year, and he and the rest of the Dallas DBs are coming off a game where they allowed 4 TD passes, three of which went to WRs.

Love may have struggled against an elite D-Line last week in Cleveland, but his chances for a monster game look very good in this spot. He’s not someone I would hesitate to get into lineups if you’re streaming QBs or have a weak starter with a questionable matchup.

Prediction: Love throws for 3 TDs vs the Cowboys in a romp win. — Ulrich

J.K. Dobbins RB, Denver Broncos

As an RJ Harvey owner, stasher, and truther - this one pains me. When the season started, I circled this matchup as a possible spot that Sean Payton could hand his rookie the baton to becoming the lead back. Not today. Honestly, maybe not at all.

The reality is Dobbins remains the lead horse in the Broncos’ backfield by a country mile. The fifth-year veteran has had his name called on 63% of Denver’s rushing attempts through three weeks, and shouldered all but two running back carries in Week 3. Dobbins’ rushing output per game has continued to climb as the anchor of Denver’s ground game.

Increased production, high-floor, and hello Bengals defense. We are now entering Hulk-Smash territory with J.K. Dobbins.

There is no nice way to put this. Cincinnati was just steamrolled by Jordan Mason for 116 yards on 7.3 yards per carry. It gets better. Mason’s 2 TD-day reinforces my confidence in the touchdown equity for Dobbins, who has yet to be shutout from reaching the endzone in a game this year. Side note to my gambling friends - this is a ladder spot in the rushing yards and anytime touchdown markets.

Situationally, it’s a beautiful set up. The Broncos will be dialed in at home after dropping two straight. They will lean on Dobbins hard against a gassed Bengals defense playing at altitude on the second leg of a road trip. — Drumheller