Week 5 Fantasy Football Receiver Score Buys & Fades: Buy George Pickens, Sell Mike Evans

Time to take advantage of market perception! No one but you have access to Receiver Score information, which tells us how valuable every pass catcher’s role is. That is why I like comparing boxscore stats, other expected fantasy points models and traditional advanced metrics like TPRR to the outputs I get. It gives me the ability to recommend moves for managers to make (buy/sell, start/sit, add/drop).

As always, these calls are factored into my fantasy football rankings and the fantasy football projections.

Fantasy Football Players Receiver Score is Buying Low

George Pickens: Buy after the disappointing start

George Pickens is severely undervalued right now—I’ve seen him traded for Carnell Tate, Romeo Doubs, Mike Evans and Jameson Williams. A.J. Brown and Rashee Rice have also brought back Pickens, and I prefer him to both, but ask with the cheaper players first.

CeeDee Lamb getting 20 targets to Pickens' 3 is frustrating, but Pickens still ran 92% of the routes for 15.6 expected PPR points compared to his 9.5 actual per the Receiver Score Model. His season-long 18% TPRR is short of the 22% expectation, and he's scored below expectation in every game.

Week 4 brought fewer quick routes and in-breakers, with verticals up to 37%, which helps explain why Pickens had fewer targets. Dallas still used play-action on 26% of his routes and is top 5 in dropbacks over expected. The model still believes that he is a back-end ROS WR1 and I firmly believe that as well.

Josh Downs: Buy after another disappointing game

Josh Downs gave us 4.6 PPR points in a great matchup in Week 4, but the Receiver Score model actually loved his role and expected him to have 14.9 PPR points. The sentiment is very low after a lot of hype last week from everyone, including myself. Indianapolis still had him running routes on 94% of its passing plays with Alec Pierce on IR and Keenan Allen out.

The Colts used Downs from the slot on 71% of his routes, with 20% quick-game routes and 17% in-breakers, giving Daniel Jones plenty of options underneath. His 19% TPRR is still below the models expectation, which makes him a strong buy-low option. It really likes the playing time and route mix, although Allen returning could take away some of the opportunity.

I’ve seen Downs traded for Rome Odunze, Denzel Boston, Deebo Samuel and Jordan Addison in recent weeks—I would easily buy at those prices. Receiver Score has Downs as a low-end WR2 ROS, and he's a WR2/flex for me against Pittsburgh.

Jakobi Meyers: Keep buying at the cheaper prices

Jakobi Meyers had 4 targets Sunday despite play-action on 36% of his routes and in-breakers on 27%, giving Trevor Lawrence ways to find him across the field that haven't turned into enough targets. His season-long 15% TPRR is well below the model's 23% expectation.

Jacksonville is last in plays per minute, which limits how much volume Meyers can get, but this feels like an outlier compared to last season. They are also way lower in dropbacks over expected than 2025—if some of that stabilizes, his value could go up even more. I value him as a WR3 in this really strong offense.

Xavier Worthy and J.K. Dobbins have all been traded for Meyers and I would jump all over that.

Travis Kelce: Buy during the bye

Travis Kelce goes into his bye after 3 targets and 3.5 PPR points, but his route share has stayed between 78% and 80% every week. The targets have fallen for two games but everything on the surface looks solid, which makes me more interested in buying, especially if Rashee Rice misses time.

In Week 4, 42% of his routes were from the slot, with 31% quick routes and motion on 19% helping create underneath opportunities for Patrick Mahomes. The model expected a 24% TPRR, which is double the 12% Kelce actually received against the Raiders—he’s a mid-to-low-end TE1.

Fantasy Football Players Receiver Score is Selling High

Carnell Tate: Sell his big game

Carnell Tate has earned 21 targets over the last two games, which is eye-popping to prospective managers.

The problem is that his Week 4 36% TPRR was more than double the model's 17% expectation, even with quick-game routes accounting for 30% of his routes. Tate's route value has finished in the bottom half of WRs in three of four games, which means he’s a sell.

Looking at trade charts, I am seeing names like Mike Evans, George Pickens, Stefon Diggs, AJB, Matthew Golden, and Isaiah Likely as names he’s been traded for in the past few days—I would take all of those over him. He’s a WR4 for me. Good player with a bad situation.

Mike Evans: Use the metrics and health as a way to sell him

Evans played through the rib injury and came out without a setback, which should make him easier to move. His route participation recovered to 75%, but it was only 72% in each of the first two games before the injury.

Evans ran verticals on 44% of his routes Sunday and overproduced with a 30% TPRR compared to 19% expected TPRR from the Receiver Score model. Evans can beat the model, but maintaining a gap that large is a lot to ask from this route mix.

I am seeing Pickens, Malik Nabers and Michael Wilson as some players traded for Evans recently—all of which I would rather have. He’s a high-end WR3 for me ROS, so I think there’s some perceived value to be gained.

T.J. Hockenson: Sell the big game

T.J. Hockenson caught all 13 targets with Justin Jefferson out, but his deployment barely changed. Minnesota gave Kyler Murray more quick-game options through Hockenson, up to 41% of his routes from 16%, but the 24.9 PPR points still doubled the 12.3 expectation. There are no major fantasy football cheat codes in his deployment—this was simply just Kyler trying to get the ball out quickly without Jefferson playing.

Receiver Score has Hockenson at TE15 ROS, so there’s opportunity to capitalize on this big game, which is either a situation you can fade if he’s available or trade if you have him and others are desperate. I would rather have Colston Loveland, Juwan Johnson, Dalton Kincaid or Harold Fannin—all of which have been traded for Hockenson over the last few days.

He’s probably worth starting if Jefferson misses more time, but the initial reports were that he’s targeting Week 5, so I expect Jefferson to be back (leaving Hockenson less playable).

Rome Odunze: Sell, again

Rome Odunze finally gave us a useful game, but the 6 targets and 88% route participation were identical to Week 3. More play-action, up to 38%, helped his route value climb into the 58th percentile, but catching all 6 targets also turned essentially the same opportunity into a much better result.

His season-long 16% TPRR matches expectation, with little reason in the route data to project a big increase. Tyson Bagent is expected to start again, and Chicago has shown a willingness to lean on the run game. A lot of people see the route share and the bigger stat line and think he’s clearly the Bears’ top option, but the deep-threat deployment makes him hard to trust.

Downs, DK Metcalf and Jameson Williams are all players the Receiver Score model likes much better. Jaylen Waddle also earns targets more often than Odunze. Williams still runs plenty of verticals, but his 93% season route share and better route value give me more to bet on than Odunze. One good game is enough for me to try selling, but not enough to trust him in my lineup.

Fantasy Football Players Receiver Score is Adding

Keon Coleman: Add if DJ Moore misses time

Keon Coleman is below 10% rostered on ESPN, so he’s widely available. His route share climbed from 51% to 77% (DJ Moore left early), with Buffalo giving Josh Allen more ways to find him through slot routes (32%), motion (21%) and play-action (32%). It was a different deployment than what he normally does with Moore.

He received 7 targets, which is exactly what the Receiver Score model predicted. In this Buffalo offense, 7 targets is more than enough to be considered a WR3 if Moore sits. He’s the only Buffalo pass catcher who’s guaranteed to have over a 70% route share.

Dontayvion Wicks: Add if DeVonta Smith misses time

Now that DeVonta Smith sat out Week 4, and is potentially out for longer, I am back in. Dontayvion Wicks' role changed quite a bit: quick-game routes rose from 7% to 35% and vertical routes dropped considerably. He also had the pleasure of getting the Rams top outside corner, Trent McDuffie aligned on him nearly every time he ran a route from the outside, so the deployment didn’t impact his final stats, but the model believes it should in a better matchup.

Wicks scored only 4.8 PPR points compared to 10.1 expected, so there was clearly an impact. He's worth adding as a WR4 who can cover a bye if Smith stays out, although I'd prefer Coleman's upside. Wicks was 55% rostered on ESPN on Monday, so Coleman is also more likely to be available if you need help.

Dohnte Meyers: Add if Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins miss time

Dohnte Meyers was essentially unrostered on ESPN on Monday after running 54 routes for Joe Burrow, with Ja'Marr Chase's concussion and Tee Higgins' adductor injury opening up 93% participation and 9 targets. Cincinnati also used motion on 28% of his routes, with quick routes and in-breakers each accounting for 22%.

The model valued his deployment at 14.2 PPR points, close to the 15.2 he scored. Cincinnati is the top team in Dropback Rate over Expected (DBOE), which makes this even more enticing.

Both injuries are day-to-day with decent odds that one of them will miss this week. The volume and deployment are good enough to make Meyers WR3 or Flex worthy for this week. It’s possible adding him also turns into a WR handcuff, obviously not to the level of Chase or, but a reasonable WR3 or low-end WR2 if he turns out to be talented.

Quick Fantasy Football Thoughts from Receiver Score

DK Metcalf: Status Quo

Still a buy as a low-end WR2 in the Receiver Score model. I’m finding that perception is very low on him.

Christian Watson: Buy after the quieter week

Lower route share and lower production—if you can get him for a WR2 value, do it.

KC Concepcion: Buy again

Denzel Boston keeps having the bigger numbers, but the model likes KC Concepcion. His role projects as a ROS WR3 if there’s a way to acquire him for cheap.

Denzel Boston: Sell again

Market perception (because of three big plays) feels higher than what he’s actually worth. Receiver Score has him at a 15% expected TPRR with low route value. See what you can get— perhaps any of the buy names in this article.