Week 6 RB Rankings: Rico Dowdle Looks for Repeat in Revenge Game Against the Cowboys
Matthew Freedman releases his RB Rankings and favorite plays in fantasy football for Week 6, featuring Rico Dowdle, Hassan Haskins, Michael Carter and more.
It's Week 6.
We officially have a middle-aged NFL regular season.
If it were a man, it would have stubble on its face, bags under its eyes, whiskey on its breath, and a solo Mark Lanegan record playing on repeat in its head.
Or maybe that's just me.
Either way, let's get into the Week 6 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of:
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my weekly rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 6 fantasy football plays.
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Week 6 Running Back Rankings
Rico Dowdle Gets Cowboys in Week 6 Revenge Game
In the words of Hamlet: "How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
Last year, Rico Dowdle was a surprise breakout for the Cowboys as he put up 1,328 yards and 5 TDs in 16 games … and then the team let him walk in free agency.
I tentatively expect starter Chuba Hubbard (calf) to be out one more week for the Panthers, which means that Dowdle will now get his #RevengeGame against the Cowboys.
Playing in place of Hubbard last week, Dowdle was literally the No. 1 RB on the week with 30.9 fantasy points, 234 yards, and a TD on 23 carries and four targets.
As for the Cowboys, they're No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+8.5), and they could be without EDGE Marshawn Kneeland (ankle) and LB Jack Sanborn (concussion).
I like this situational spot for the Panthers: They're playing their second game in a row (and third in four weeks) in Charlotte, and over the past year they've had the league's No. 3 home-field advantage at Bank of America Stadium (+10.5, per NFElo).
The Panthers are consensus 3.5-point underdogs, but I have them as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life NFL Game Model.
The Cowboys are an indoor team playing outdoors this week, and while I don't expect the October weather to be cold, Dowdle's revenge probably will be.
Michael Carter is a Solid RB2 in Week 6
Nos. 1 & 2 RBs James Conner (ankle, IR) and Trey Benson (knee, IR) are out.
That leaves the Cardinals with Michael Carter, Emari Demercado, and Bam Knight.
In the absence of Conner and Benson, last week Carter had 73 yards and a TD on 18 carries, five targets and a studly 89 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
Most importantly, Demercado ignominiously and carelessly fumbled a would-be TD at the goal line last week, starting a chain reaction of events that resulted in the team blowing a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter and ultimately suffering a 22-21 loss.
Honestly, Demercado is lucky still to be on the team (as of writing). I doubt he'll see serious work in Week 6.
As for Knight, he's a special teamer who doesn't have the good sense to know that his legal first name (Zonovan) is better than his nickname (Bam). He had an annoying five opportunities last week (four carries, one target), but he probably won't see significantly more usage than that this week.
Carter's the leader in this backfield, and although the Cardinals are 6.5-point road underdogs, his matchup is actually advantageous: The Colts are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (49.0%, per RBs Don't Matter).
Hassan Haskins Upgrades to Flex Flier in Week 6
Sadly, Matthew Berry's "Ride or Die"—Omarion Hampton (ankle, IR)—is out for at least the next four weeks.
I'm not a doctor, but since Hampton's injury seemed more like a sprain than a fracture, I'm holding out hope that he'll be able to return later this year … but until then, the Chargers (and fantasy managers) will need to rely on someone else.
Maybe that guy could be Hassan Haskins.
I'm gonna be honest: The dude is uninspiring as a football player. For his career, he has a rushing average of 3.0 yards per carry. And he offers little as a receiver (just four targets since last season).
And he will probably split the workload with practice squader Kimani Vidal, who has a shot of beating him out for the lead back role. On top of that, the team could always look to bring back free agent Gus Edwards.
And I haven't even mentioned that the Chargers have serious OL injury issues: LT Rashawn Slater (knee, IR) is out for the year, RT Joe Alt (ankle) missed last week and RG Mekhi Becton (hand) exited Week 5 early.
This is disgusting.
But we're in the bye weeks, so fantasy managers might be a little more desperate than usual—and Haskins gets the Dolphins, who are No. 29 in defensive rush DVOA (4.9%, per FTN).
I don't think I'd be willing to start Haskins this week in Guillotine Leagues, but he's a desperado flex flier for those who need it and he should be judiciously added off waivers.
The Checkdown
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) at Giants: "If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us shall we not revenge?" In his one #RevengeGame against the Giants last year, Barkley went off for 187 yards and a TD, and I expect the Eagles to make a point of getting him the ball after he saw just nine opportunities last week. Barkley's production has been modest this year (395 yards, 4 TDs), but he's still the No. 3 RB in snap rate (84%), the Giants are No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (23.0%), and they could be without LBs Micah McFadden (leg, IR), Chris Board (chest, IR), Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (hamstring) and Swayze Bozeman (ankle).
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs. Titans: Despite their 1-4 record, the Raiders are 5.0-point home favorites against the Titans, who are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+8.0) and without DT T'Vondre Sweat (ankle, IR). Additionally, the Titans are playing their third straight road game and second in a row out west in the late 4:05 p.m. ET time slot. Since the Raiders pushed depth RBs Zamir White and Dylan Laube to the sideline two weeks ago, Jeanty has put up 264 yards and 3 TDs on 35 carries and nine targets.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs. Bears: Croskey-Merritt handled his largest workload of the year in Week 5, the Commanders are 4.5-point home favorites, and the Bears are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (28.5). When it comes to this backfield, Bill is starting to … wait for it … take "command."
Rachaad White (Buccaneers) vs. 49ers: White had 71 yards and 2 TDs on 14 carries and four targets last week in relief of starter RB Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder), who could miss one more week. The Bucs are 3.0-point favorites, the 49ers are traveling across the country, and DTs Kalia Davis (hand) and Alfred Collins (knee) and EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (hamstring) are injured.
Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs. Browns: Warren (knee) missed Week 4, but I project him to play coming off the Week 5 bye. If he doesn't, then Kenneth Gainwell (134 yards, 2 TDs in Week 4) will be a fine injury fill-in. The Browns are tough—No. 2 in defensive rush EPA (-0.229)—but the Steelers are five-point home favorites, and the Browns are in an unprecedentedly bad scheduling spot playing their third straight road game (and fourth in five weeks), the most recent of which was in London.
RB Rankings Notes
Byes: This week, the Vikings and Texans are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 5 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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