Week 7 Fantasy Football Mismatch Report: Drake Maye, J.K. Dobbins Set to Explode

Football at its core is a game that features teams attempting to exploit mismatches against each other. This is accomplished through smart X's and O's strategy as well as by simply having some beastly Jimmys and Joes to lean on in the personnel department. While none of us alleged fantasy experts should be confused as professional coaches, we do largely attempt to accomplish the same goal while prepping for any given week: Identify and exploit the biggest mismatches to our advantage.

This brings us to today's goal: Breaking down some of the week's biggest mismatches in an attempt to get an edge in fantasy football land.

A lot of this will be done through my weekly Mismatch Manifesto charts that combine commonly-used matchup metrics in an attempt to turn things into a one-way street as opposed to always having to go, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y." To put the following data simply: Blue is good for the offense in question, and red is bad. Cool? Cool.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Week 7 Fantasy Football Mismatch Report
Get ready to rock and roll: J.K. Dobbins is in a BOOM spot this week

The below chart denotes every matchup's combined explosive pass (15+ yards) and run rates (10+ yards) through six weeks of action. Example: The Giants passing game doesn't look too hot this week, but the Broncos run game looks to be set up pretty damn great.

Screenshot 2025-10-17 at 8.26.29 AM.webp

It's looking pretty, pretty, pretty good for J.K. Dobbins and the Broncos backfield this week. As much as this season's lackluster start for RJ Harvey has frustrated fantasy managers, we've seen consistently awesome usage from Dobbins, who also deserves credit for working as the RB9 this season in rushing yards over expected per carry (+0.9).

The Broncos' starting RB has averaged 16.2 touches per game this season and could make the most of those opportunities against a Giants defense that is one of just five groups allowing north of five yards per carry. Throw in potentially ideal game script with Denver sitting pretty as 7.0-point favorites in Mile High, and Dobbins is Fantasy Life's consensus RB18 ahead of dudes like Jordan Mason, Travis Etienne and D'Andre Swift among others.

B-e-a-utiful passing matchups: The Packers, Buccaneers, Patriots and Seahawks are set up quite well in their quest to create big plays in the passing game. Let's see if Jordan Love can make the most out of this matchup and take another step toward making a real run at MVP honors this season. I love his current +2000 odds considering Love has played great—top-five in EPA per play, success rate and completion percentage over expected—despite the Packers offense dealing with all kinds of injuries across the offensive line and in the WR room. He's pacing for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns! Throw in the reality that the Packers have a very real chance of finishing as one of the NFC's top two seeds, and this does seem like quality value to me (a lifelong losing gambler).

It's 2025 guys get it together: The Giants, Cardinals, Saints, and Jets stand out as the offenses least expected to produce some explosive chunk gains through the air. That said: I'm optimistic Jets TE Mason Taylor can provide some quality numbers over the next two weeks with Garrett Wilson (knee) likely to be sidelined. After all, Taylor has already worked as the team's clear-cut No. 2 pass-game option, and he couldn't ask for a better short-term stretch against the league's bottom two defenses in PPR points per game allowed to the position.

The Mount Rushmore of best RB run-game matchups

The following chart denotes every offense's combined *RB* rush yards before contact from Weeks 1-6.

Screenshot 2025-10-16 at 12.28.48 PM.webp

The top-four RBs (other than Dobbins who we already talked about) feature:

Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Set up brilliantly at Jerry World, AKA the NFL's version of Coors Field. Bill has largely made the most out of his touches all season long and now faces off against a defense that has been pulverized by the likes of Rico Dowdle (33.9 PPR points, RB2), Breece Hall (17.5, RB8) and Josh Jacobs (31.7, RB3) during the last three weeks.

Lions RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery: Head coach Dan Campbell spoke about wanting a more balanced backfield moving forward this week. And for good reason: As great as Gibbs is, Montgomery has actually been the more efficient RB this season:

Rushing: Gibbs (4.5 yards per carry), Montgomery (5.1 yards per carry)
Receiving: Gibbs (4.5 yards per target), Montgomery (7.8 yards per target)

Now, calling this a great matchup isn't exactly true considering Vita Vea and company rank first in EPA allowed per rush this season; just realize there's still a lot to like about the Lions' top-four offensive line in RB rush yards before contact per carry as well as an overall offensive environment that has Detroit implied to score a week-high 29 points.

Bears RB D'Andre Swift: Don't look now, but Swift is averaging more PPR points per game than Mr. Saquon Barkley through six weeks of action. Monday night's win over the Commanders was his best performance yet and hopefully a sign of more big things to come as the streaking Bears look to establish some consistency on offense. They should have every chance to do so this Sunday as home favorites against a Saints defense that ranks 25th in scoring and has already given up some big-time performances to guys like Christian McCaffrey (PPR RB5), Kenneth Walker (RB10) and James Cook (RB10) this season.

Rams RB Kyren Williams: Currently outscoring Gibbs in half-PPR points per game thanks to efficiency that more closely resembles 2023 than 2024 combined with typically huge volume (on pace for 320 touches this season). The Rams rank first in RB rush yards before contact per carry and figure to lean on their workhorse back more than ever with Puka Nacua (ankle) unlikely to suit up for the team's London-themed matchup with the Jaguars.

More RBs with plus matchups on the ground: Feature Kimani Vidal, Jonathan Taylor and Alvin Kamara. The Chargers' backfield leader was deservedly THE top waiver wire pickup of Week 7. Vidal is a low-end RB2 with this sort of usage. Of course, Los Angeles doesn't get to play the Dolphins every week, there are murmurs of the Chargers being involved in the RB trade market and Omarion Hampton (ankle, IR) should return at some point. We also shouldn't expect Hassan Haskins to completely go away: The Michigan man still profiles as the lead goal-line back and could have earned himself some more snaps with his incredible blocking display on what wound up being the game-clinching play.

Tough sledding ahead: Things aren't looking too great for the Dolphins Titans, and Giants this week in the whole "open up big run lanes" department. Both De'Von Achane and Cam Skattebo should be started anyway thanks to their respective big-time workloads and receiving upside, but the same can't be said for either Titans RB. Still, I like getting Tyjae Spears on fantasy benches when possible: Tony Pollard profiles as a potential trade candidate, and Spears has looked GOOD on his limited touches during the last two weeks since returning from injury.

Is Jaxson Dart completely screwed this week?

It sure looks like it based on combined Weeks 1-6 pressure rates between this week's offensive line and pass-rush matchups.

Screenshot 2025-10-16 at 2.12.10 PM.webp

Jaxson Dart is in a really tough spot this week in Mile High against the Broncos, who lead the league in total sacks (30), pressure rate (46.3%) and havoc (44.8%) alike. Throw in the presence of all-world CB Pat Surtain, and it's tough to have too much confidence in this Wan'Dale Robinson-led (for now) passing attack.

And yet, I struggle to move Dart too far down my rankings. He's not quite in QB1 territory this week, but goodness gracious has this rookie been electric as a ball carrier this season. Overall, Dart has posted 10-54-1, 7-55-0 and 13-58-1 rushing lines in his lone three starts—that's already tied for the most 50-plus yard rushing performances by a QB this season! Overall, Dart's average of 9.6 fantasy points per game from purely rushing ranks first at the position.

Madness, but it's not quite as surprising when you consider Dart leads all QBs in both scramble rate and designed rush rate this season.

While it'd do Dart some good to not take after his teammate Cam Skattebo quite as much in terms of throwing caution to the wind at the point of contact, it's hard not to be impressed with the 2025 NFL Draft's 25th overall pick through three career starts—particularly considering the utter lack of proven high-end pass-game options inside an offense without Malik Nabers (knee, IR) and (obviously to a lesser extent) Darius Slayton (hamstring).

QBs who could be doing their best David Bowie impressions (get it? Under pressure?): Include Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith and Sam Darnold. Unfortunately, traveling to Minnesota to take on Brian Flores' league-leading defense in EPA allowed per dropback probably isn't the sort of get-right spot Hurts and this passing game could use. The Super Bowl MVP is averaging a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt and has left some big plays on the field in recent weeks (not always his fault). Regardless: Hurts is a weekly top-five fantasy QB thanks to his weekly tush-push TD upside—something that REALLY accounts for a rather huge chunk of his fantasy production at this point.

Guess who could have ALL day to throw this week: Well, the numbers say Bo Nix, Bryce Young, Michael Penix and Patrick Mahomes should have clean pockets on more dropbacks than not. Here's to hoping Young and the Panthers can parlay their third-straight smashable matchup into more quality production. Give the third-year QB credit for making some clutch throws in recent weeks; just realize we're still looking at someone with pretty brutal marks in yards per attempt (5.8, 33rd), EPA per dropback (-0.02, 29th) and completion percentage over expected (-0.2%, 25th) alike. Good news: Jalen Coker (quad) is back to save the day!

Are the Patriots down to let Drake Maye cook?

I hope so! The second-year talent has a top-five matchup in terms of combined pass yards per dropback.

Screenshot 2025-10-16 at 2.12.10 PM.webp

It's rather shocking how polished Maye has been this season despite still not exactly being surrounded by the world's best supporting cast. He's also not been forced to solely rely on his legs to produce fantasy points–the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 3 overall pick has by and large simply shredded opposing secondaries week in and week out this season.

Drake Maye among 33 QBs with 100+ dropbacks:

EPA per play: +0.33 (No. 3)
Success rate: 53.3% (No. 6)
Completion rate: 73.2% (No. 2)
Completion rate over expected: +9.7% (No. 3)
PFF pass grade: 83.7 (No. 4)
Yards per attempt: 8.5 (No. 4)
Passer rating: 112.5 (No. 4)

This Sunday's Mike Vrabel revenge game features a Titans defense that ranks just 25th in EPA allowed per dropback. Don't be surprised if the good times keep on rolling for Maye and company–he's the overall QB5 in Fantasy Life's consensus ranks.

There should also be plenty of aerial success from the: Seahawks, Rams and Cowboys. Obviously things won't be quite as smooth in Los Angeles without Puka Nacua (ankle) around, but Davante Adams remains very good at football, and we also shouldn't be surprised if Jordan Whittington picks up at least some of the slack. After all, the second-year talent posted 6-62-0, 7-89-0 and 3-86-0 receiving lines in three starts without Nacua in the lineup last season and profiles as the offense's lead low-aDOT/screen option. Don't go crazy–Whittington is just my WR46 on the week—but I would start him ahead of fellow WR4/WR5 types like Troy Franklin, Kayshon Boutte, Jauan Jennings and Hollywood Brown.

Local birds beware: On the bad side of things, the Giants, Cardinals, Eagles, and Jets profile as the bottom-four worst passing attacks. It remains to be seen if Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion) will suit up this week. The 2024 NFL Draft's No. 4 overall pick was starting to come on strong prior to last week's injury and is set up better than anyone at the position when it comes to strength of schedule over the next five weeks. Both Zay Jones and Michael Wilson will get a bump in the ranks if Marv is ultimately sidelined, although in that scenario it's probably wishful thinking to expect anything close to fireworks from anyone in this passing game other than Trey McBride.

Get your popcorn ready for Cowboys-Commanders

We don't need fancy numbers to explain why this NFC East showdown featuring a week-high 54.5 game total is exciting, but hey, why not provide some anyway!

The following chart denotes every offense's matchup in combined EPA per play based on their Weeks 1-6 performance.

Screenshot 2025-10-16 at 2.49.41 PM.webp

The Cowboys are currently just the fourth team since 2000 accounting for 60 combined points on a per-game basis in terms of both their scoring offense and defense. Basically, Dak Prescott and company can rack up points on just about anyone … while the Micah Parsons-less defense is also seemingly incapable of slowing down even the league's worst offenses.

The result is NFL RedZone and fantasy football cinema. Cowboys games have become some of the week's most-consistent sources of entertainment, you know, for everyone other than their own fans.

Underdog watch: There are four teams with an on-paper advantage in combined EPA per play, yet are underdogs in the betting markets: Vikings (+2), Colts (+1.5), Falcons (+2) and the Texans (+3).

Blowout alert: The Patriots, Chiefs and Broncos rather easily boast the largest expected offensive advantages in combined EPA per play.

Shootout city: Other than the Cowboys-Commanders matchup, Lions-Buccaneers and Cardinals-Packers boast the highest game-wide numbers.

This could be ugly: Vikings-Eagles, Broncos-Giants and Jaguars-Rams profile as the three matchups that could feature the most total offensive despair.

Thanks for reading and best of luck in Week 7 and beyond!