Week 7 Scheme Advantages & Disadvantages For Fantasy Football: Carnell Tate Ready To Fly

Time to exploit this week’s matchups! I've got a few receivers to move into your lineups this week, two quarterbacks I'd start and some running backs with very different matchups. Keep an eye on our fantasy football rankings and fantasy football projections as injury news comes in.

Fantasy Football Matchups I Like

Carnell Tate vs Browns Coverage

I like Tate as a WR2 this week after 16 receptions for 221 yards over his past three games. Tennessee has looked to him on 35.1% of its first reads during that stretch. He earned 7 targets last week despite the Titans having just 23 dropbacks.

Cleveland plays Cover 1 on 43.2% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. Tate's first-read share against that coverage is 42.9%. Everything has been trending up and despite a bad offense, Tate is ready to fly in this one.

Jaylen Warren vs Saints Run Defense

Warren gets a Saints defense that has allowed 4.89 yards per carry to RBs (3rd most) and a league-high 62% rushing success rate. New Orleans has an F in my run-defense grades against a Pittsburgh offensive line with a B+ in run blocking.

Warren has averaged 5.29 yards per carry on 35 man-blocked runs, Pittsburgh's most-used run concept. The Saints have allowed a successful run on 78.6% of the 28 carries they've faced against that concept.

Rico Dowdle returned last week, but Warren still played 73% of the offensive snaps and handled 12 of Pittsburgh's 19 RB carries. I have Warren as a low-end RB1 in this matchup even with Dowdle back.

Denzel Boston vs Titans Coverage

Boston has been much more productive against zone this season, averaging 2.14 yards per route run on 153 routes (0.33 against man). Tennessee plays zone on 80.9% of dropbacks (8th most), including the league's highest Quarters rate at 26%. Boston has averaged 3.18 YPRR on 33 routes against Quarters.

Tennessee's outside corners have an F in my grades, with the defense allowing 1.79 YPRR to outside receivers (7th most). Boston runs almost all of his routes outside—I like him as a WR3 against this group.

Woody Marks vs Giants Run Defense

I had Marks in the tougher-matchup section last week, but I'd start him as an RB2 in PPR if David Montgomery misses another game with his groin injury. Marks has handled 29 of Houston's 40 RB carries over the past two games.

New York allows 4.81 yards per carry to RBs and 1.75 yards before contact per carry, both fourth most in the NFL. Houston has used power or man-blocking concepts on nearly half of its RB carries. The Giants have allowed 5.63 yards per carry on 54 gap-scheme runs, with 9 of those carries gaining at least 10 yards.

DeVonta Smith vs Cowboys Coverage

I'd keep Smith in lineups as a WR2 after he drew 12 targets from Tanner McKee last week. Smith accounted for 35.3% of Philadelphia's first reads.

Dallas has allowed the most EPA per dropback in the NFL this season. Philadelphia's outside receivers have an A in my grades against Dallas' D-grade outside corners.

The Cowboys play Cover 3 on 39.5% of dropbacks (7th most). Smith has earned a target on 32.6% of his 46 routes against that coverage. Dallas has allowed 2.06 YPRR to outside receivers in Cover 3 over the past three games (4th most).

Bryce Young vs Buccaneers Defense

Tampa Bay blitzes on 42.5% of dropbacks (3rd most), but ranks 31st in pressure rate at 27.9%. Young has averaged 0.35 EPA per dropback against the blitz, taking just 1 sack on those 61 dropbacks.

The Buccaneers also play Cover 3 on 50.2% of dropbacks (2nd most). Young has averaged 0.28 EPA per dropback against that coverage across 74 dropbacks this season. I'd stream Young as a low-end QB1 this week.

C.J. Stroud vs Giants Pass Rush

Stroud is a QB1 for me against the Giants, who have the lowest pressure rate in the NFL at 25.9%. Stroud has averaged 8.73 yards per dropback from a clean pocket this season.

New York has been blitzing on 39.2% of dropbacks (4th most). Stroud hasn't taken a sack on any of his 54 dropbacks against the blitz, averaging 0.38 EPA per dropback on those plays.

Fantasy Football Matchups that are Tougher

Emanuel Wilson vs Chiefs Run Defense

Kansas City has allowed RBs just 0.55 yards before contact per carry, the fewest in the NFL. Seattle uses outside zone on 48% of its RB carries, a concept the Chiefs have held to 2.54 yards per carry on 39 attempts. Backs have managed just 0.18 yards before contact on those runs.

Wilson played just 34% of Seattle's snaps last week despite Zach Charbonnet being out. George Holani has been the primary passing-down back, leaving Wilson dependent on rushing production against a defense allowing just 3.23 yards per carry to RBs (2nd fewest).

I'd only use Wilson as a desperation flex if Charbonnet remains out. If Charbonnet returns, Wilson belongs on the bench in a 12-team league and could eventually be a drop.

Josh Downs vs Vikings Coverage

Downs' first-read share has fallen from 31.5% over the first three games to 16.7% over the past three. I'm sitting him in a typical 12-team league against Minnesota this week.

The Vikings play zone on 84.4% of dropbacks (3rd most). Downs is averaging 1.04 YPRR against zone on 156 routes this season, well below his 2.62 against man. Minnesota plays man at the lowest rate in the league. The Vikings have also allowed just 0.93 YPRR to slot receivers (4th fewest).

Rome Odunze vs Patriots Coverage

Odunze gets Christian Gonzalez on Thursday after the cornerback returned from his shoulder injury last week. Receivers have caught just 10 of 21 targets for 83 yards with Gonzalez in primary coverage this season, per PFF. DK Metcalf caught 2 of 7 targets for 8 yards against him in Week 2.

Odunze has run 79% of his routes outside and should see plenty of Gonzalez. New England plays man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (37.1%), while Odunze has averaged just 1.04 YPRR against man on 27 routes.

I have Odunze in the WR4/flex range this week and would try to sit him in a 12-team league.

KC Concepcion vs Titans Coverage

I like Boston this week, but Tennessee's coverage is a much worse fit for Concepcion. He's averaging 0.81 YPRR against zone on 115 routes this season, with 2.38 against man. Tennessee uses zone on 80.9% of dropbacks.

Concepcion does most of his receiving from the slot, where the Titans allow a target on just 14.4% of routes (3rd lowest). Cleveland's slot receivers have an F in my grades against Tennessee's B+ in slot coverage. Oddly, the Titans are set up as an outside WR funnel (hence, why I like Boston this week).

He's also been far more productive against the blitz, averaging 2.42 YPRR with extra rushers coming and 0.71 without them. Tennessee blitzes on just 22.8% of dropbacks (26th). I'm leaving Concepcion on the bench in 12-team leagues this week.

Tre Tucker vs Rams Coverage

I liked Tucker against Buffalo last week, but he's a WR4 for me against the Rams. Los Angeles has allowed just 0.85 YPRR to outside receivers over the past three games, the fewest in the NFL. Tucker runs roughly three-quarters of his routes outside.

The Rams have the top outside-corner grade in my model at A+, against a Las Vegas outside-receiver group with a C. They play man on 28.5% of dropbacks (6th most), holding outside receivers to 0.78 YPRR against those looks this season. Tucker has averaged 1.24 YPRR against man on 42 routes this season.

Ashton Jeanty: Blocking and a Smaller Role vs Rams

Jeanty played 57% of the snaps last week and split carries evenly with Mike Washington, with 9 apiece. He's down from playing 73% to 83% of the snaps in each of the first three games.

Las Vegas has a D in my run-blocking grades against a Rams defense with an A. Jeanty is getting just 0.60 yards before contact per carry (32nd among 39 qualified backs). He's been stuffed at or behind the line on 25.3% of his carries, the highest rate among those backs. The blocking deserves plenty of blame, though Jeanty also ranks 34th in missed tackles forced per carry.

I have him as an RB2 this week with the reduced role. He's still a starter in most lineups, but this is a brutal matchup. Playing the Jets next week can’t get here soon enough.