Week 7 WR/CB Matchups: Rome Odunze Will Bounce Back

I can’t stand rollercoasters.

My disdain mostly comes from my age. However, I don’t speak for all 40-year-olds. I went to Cedar Point with Rich Hribar and Pat Thorman a couple of years ago, and I stood in the rain while those two went down the Millennium Force. It’s the unanticipated jerks from side to side for me. Or, it could be because the whole experience reminds me of the regular season.

Week 1 sounds good in theory until after kickoff. The next few weeks are us trying to figure out what’s real or not, while trying to manage injuries. Then the league slaps us with bye weeks. There’s always something. It’s part of why I go through the individual matchups. Because while the twists and turns of the season can garner our attention, focusing on our top pass-catchers and adjusting to their environments can help us win the week and keep pushing for a playoff spot.

WR/CB Matchups to Target

Rome Odunze vs Saints

After having his first single-digit fantasy outing, I hope you’re out on Rome Odunze. If you didn’t watch the game, in the words of Director Krennic, we were on the verge of greatness Monday night.

Most of Odunze’s peripherals were in line with the rest of the season. He had one fewer target (five) than Olamide Zaccheaus, who led the team. Odunze’s 43% air yard share was the most of any pass-catcher. Nobody was over 20%. Again, let’s assume Caleb Williams looks for his second-year receiver a bit closer to the LOS (21.4-yard aDOT) and we’ll be back to the good ol’ days of Weeks 1-4. And their Week 7 matchup sets them up for a big return to form.

The first thing to notice is the last number. New Orleans has given up a TD to an outside receiver in every game except when they faced the Giants. Second, which you wouldn’t know just by looking at the stats, those metrics are just each receiver’s output from the perimeter. Said another way, Odunze can gain even more against this defense as he’s used both on the interior and out wide. With this game sitting at the fifth-highest total on the slate, Odunze’s role within the offense and the secondary he gets to pick on should make him a top WR in Week 7.

Ladd McConkey vs Colts

Through six weeks, the Colts have tied for the ninth-fewest points per game allowed. Accordingly, they’re the eleventh-worst matchup for a QB. But see if you can follow my logic.

Week 1: Dolphins (opponent), 133 (passing yards allowed)
Week 2: Broncos, 206
Week 3: Titans, 196
Week 4: Rams, 360
Week 5: Raiders, 190
Week 6: Cardinals, 312

Respectfully, half of Indianapolis’ opponents have been disasters on offense. And then they faced a backup (without his WR1 for most of the game) in Week 6. Regardless, it’s easy to pick out when DC Lou Anarumo has had to work against a league-average passing attack or not. Plus, with Kenny Moore nursing an Achilles injury, Charvarius Ward going through the concussion protocol and Xavien Howard retiring, this isn’t the same unit that came out in Week 1. Plus, their next opponent has seemingly figured out how to mitigate their offensive line woes.

Week 5 (first game without Joe Alt): -6% (pass rate over expectation), 2.55 (avg. time to throw), 3.8 (passing aDOT)
Week 6: +2%, 2.73, 5.8

I reference Justin Herbert’s target depth as folks might look to McConkey’s uptick in results as a sole function of Quentin Johnston’s absence. While having two receivers (one being over 30 years old) on the field is better for McConkey than three, how far downfield Herbert looks also changes our outlook for the slot receiver. And with the Colts able to get pressure on 34% of enemy QB dropbacks (18th-highest), even if Johnston returns to the lineup, Herbert might still be on a short-area diet. Plus, as the Colts’ secondary is allowing the fourth-most PPR PPG to WRs, McConkey’s increased share of the offense should be another bright spot for the Chargers on Sunday.

Sneaky WR/CB Matchups To Target

Stefon Diggs at Titans

On the one hand, I want to roster as many Patriots as possible for this weekend. They’re seven-point road favorites. It sure sounds like HC Mike Vrabel wouldn’t mind a strong showing against his former team. The problem is that Drake Maye has too many options.

Kayshon Boutte (Week 6): 21% (target share)
DeMario Douglas: 17%
Stefon Diggs: 13%
Hunter Henry: 13%

However, let’s work this by process of elimination and see who grades out as the best of the pass-catching corps (Hint: it’s probably the guy in the header, but who’s to say, really). Douglas has run less than 50% of the routes in all but one game. He had multiple steps on rookie CB Jonas Sanker and turned one of his four targets into a TD. That’s tough to trust on a weekly basis. OK, let’s look at the Louisiana native who got to show out in front of his home crowd.

Kayshon Boutte, while effective (1.87 YPRR), primarily works on the outside (8.7% slot snap rate). Courtland Sutton (4-50-1), Davante Adams (4-67-1), Michael Pittman (3-44-1), Nico Collins (4-79-0) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (4-98-0) have performed well against Tennessee’s outside corners with their height/weight advantage over CBs L’Jarius Sneed and Jalyn Armour-Davis. Since Boutte (5’11”-197) doesn’t have the same stature or ability to create separation, there’s just one option with the best bet to capitalize on the coverage: Diggs.

Despite the (steep) drop-off in usage against the Saints (down to 13% target rate), Diggs still ran a route on 71% of Maye’s dropbacks (second-most of the receivers). Plus, he works all over the formation with a 45.5% slot rate. Said another way, he’s the least likely of the trio to see the Titans’ best defender, but still has the best rapport out of the bunch to keep the Patriots’ offense on the move.

Rashid Shaheed at the Bears

I was going through the receivers who have played against Chicago and noticed something about their production.

Week 1: Jalen Nailor, 28 yards (longest completion)
Week 2: Jameson Williams, 64 yards
Week 3: KaVontae Turpin, 37 yards
Week 6: Chris Moore, 22 yards

Of course, I instantly thought of Rashid Shaheed and what his long speed could do to the Bears’ secondary. Unsurprisingly, he leads the team in yards created off deep shots. However, this is a different Saints’ passing game than we’ve come to know over the last few years.

2022: 11.6 (Shaheed receiving aDOT)
2023: 14.6
2024: 18.1
2025: 10.8

HC Kellen Moore has been keeping Shaheed closer to the formation (36.8% slot rate) and in an area of the field that’s easier for Spencer Rattler to place the ball accurately. In other words, we don’t have to rely on big plays for Shaheed to be viable in fantasy. Of course, we’ll take them. And with the Bears giving up the third-highest explosive play rate to WRs, it’s in the range of outcomes. However, with Chicago playing man coverage at one of the highest rates, Shaheed’s ability to create separation will make him an under-the-radar option for Week 7.

WR/CB Matchups to Avoid in Week 7

Kendrick Bourne vs Falcons

Note: An “Avoid” doesn’t mean I’m recommending that you sit a player. This section is to highlight a matchup where a receiver can underperform expectations due to their environment. In some cases, you might not have better options on your roster. But, with some of your other players, you can plan around a potential drop in scoring.

First, let’s see who’s under center for the 49ers. Brock Purdy may make it back for his third game in 2025. For now, I’m assuming Mac Jones will make his fifth start, which gives me pause about Kendrick Bourne’s outlook.

When Kept Clean: 0.37, 7th (out of 30 qualifiers – min. 120 dropbacks)
When Pressured: -0.59, 26th
When Blitzed: -0.20, 25th

Not only are the Falcons top-10 in defensive pressure rate, but they’ve sent five or more pass rushers at the highest rate of any team through six weeks (42.7%). Both Jones and Purdy are dealing with lower-body ailments, limiting the two in the effectiveness of their offensive line. However, even if Bourne’s QB gets a throw off to him, the veteran receiver will have his own problems trying to catch it.

Bourne has only played 19.4% and 16.7% of the snaps from the slot over the last two weeks. His alignment will likely have him going up against the Falcons’ CB1 A.J. Terrell. Of the 98 corners with at least 90 coverage snaps, Terrell has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards (60), and he’s yet to give up a TD reception. So while the health of the remaining 49ers’ pass catchers may keep Bourne at the top of the totem pole, the situation for his QB and himself should lower our expectations from a fantasy standpoint.