Week 8 Bold Predictions: Baker Mayfield Bounces Back
Fantasy

Week 8 Bold Predictions: Baker Mayfield Bounces Back

Danny Cross shares three bold predictions for Week 8 of the NFL season, including a major bounce-back for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

We're back with another episode of bold predictions after a solid showing last week. Aaron Rodgers didn't quite amass the five touchdowns we envisioned, settling for four, but we can't complain about the greediness that led to a second-quarter deep-ball interception and essentially set the shootout in motion. In Kansas City, Rashee Rice did what many expected and went nuts in his first game back, albeit on a relatively modest snap count. 

As for the Cleveland Browns predictions? We'll just toss those into the mistake by the lake and move on to the Week 8 bold predictions. 

TB_buccaneers-logo.svg Baker Mayfield & Emeka Egbuka Take Out Their Frustrations on the Saints

Authorities need to investigate the suspicious happenings that began in Tampa Bay right around the time the Buccaneers drafted Emeka Egbuka. Preseason fantasy gurus across the land warned that the Buccaneers' rookie might have a hard time finding targets as the third receiving option behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Turns out, the two vets have shared more time on the injured list than in the starting lineup. 

Egbuka proved more than capable of stepping into the WR1 role from the jump. Last year's No. 19 overall pick heads into Week 8 as the WR6 on the season. Evans's return on Monday night from a hamstring strain was short-lived, as the future Hall-of-Famer suffered a broken collarbone in the second quarter. 

Already down Godwin, and with rookie Tez Johnson looking like a better DB than WR at various points, Baker Mayfield locked onto the breakout rookie time and again. Egbuka finished with a modest four catches for 58 yards, but he saw 12 targets on the night, including two red zone looks. His 20.1 expected fantasy points (XFP) were good for WR11 on the week, and he would have gotten there with a better day by Baker, who sailed multiple throws and finished just 28-of-50 for 228 yards and his lowest passer rating (66.1) this season.

This week's visit to the Superdome should be a much easier task. The Saints have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the QB position and the ninth-highest yards per attempt (YPA). Interestingly, the Saints' defense has been a net negative to opposing QB passing totals, with a -16.9 passing yards boost according to Fantasy Life data. Yet New Orleans has allowed two passing TDs per week, the sixth-highest mark in the league. Prior to Caleb Williams's clunker last week, the Saints had allowed 2.5 QB TDs per game and 21.6 fantasy points per game (four top-10 performances out of six). 

This is a prime bounce-back spot for Mayfield, fantasy's QB4 prior to this week's struggles against Detroit. Last year's QB4 has yet to face a bottom-10 defense against fantasy QBs. He has actually faced the top two defenses against fantasy QBs among his seven outings, dropping five touchdowns on those squads (Houston and Atlanta). 

Look for Mayfield and Egbuka to pick up where Tampa Bay left off last season, when the Buccaneers outscored the Saints 78-46 in two matchups. 

Bold Prediction: Baker Mayfield accounts for four TDs and Emeka Egbuka snags two

DEN_broncos-logo.svg Troy Franklin Comes Alive, Catches All the Passes Meant for Him

Troy Franklin continues to confound, catching only three of a staggering 10 targets he saw in Week 7, including a tipped pass that went for a TD. The massive workload was good for the WR3 in expected fantasy points (XFP) on the week, though Franklin finished as just WR26 thanks to so many misses.

Franklin is averaging 13.6 XFP and 6.6 targets per game (19% target share) on the season, solid marks in a crowded receiving room. Courtland Sutton leads the team with a 21% target share, with Marvin Mims and tight end Evan Engram firmly behind the pair at 14%. Franklin gets plenty of work in the short and intermediate range and sees 39% of the team's play-action targets, a recipe for higher reception totals.

This week, the Broncos host the Dallas Cowboys, who have been torched by opposing wide receivers. Here's a look at some of the fantasy performances of opposing WRs so far:

This game has the league's second-highest point total (49.5) on the week. The Cowboys' second-ranked scoring offense (31.7 PPG) and third-worst scoring defense (29.4 PPF) sets up an ideal scenario: Sean Payton and Bo Nix dialing up the passing game in a high-scoring affair at home. Franklin should push for double-digit targets again in this one, perhaps even earning an end-zone look or two that are actually meant for him.

Bold Prediction: Troy Franklin repeats his Week 2 line of 8-89-1

NYJ_jets-logo.svg Mason Taylor Is a Top 5 TE Against the Bengals

Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals' defense allowed enough tight end scoring to account for the TE3 on the week (Pat Freiermuth), the TE15 (Jonnu Smith), and the TE18 (Darnell Washington). 

All three of these otherwise fantasy non-factors scored touchdowns, and their combined 49.1 PPR points pushed the Bengals' league-leading fantasy points allowed to the position to 22.3 per game. That's a full 5.5 fantasy points worse than the third-worst defense against TEs. 

Now, I know what you're thinking: They're playing the 0-7 Jets led by journeyman QB Tyrod Taylor, who will be without top wideout Garrett Wilson. Against a typical NFL defense, this would be a problem.

But, again, this is a Bengals unit allowing the most EPA/pass (0.22) in the league and second-highest dropback success rate (52.8%). Cincinnati's 30% pass-rush win rate ranks 31st, and the team is giving up 394 yards of offense per game, also second-worst. They've allowed nine touchdowns to the tight end position, four more than the third-worst mark. 

Which brings us back to predicting TE spike weeks against the Bengals every week Jets rookie tight end Mason Taylor, whose 17% target share is second on the team to Wilson's astronomical 34%. Thirty-year-old Josh Reynolds is third on the team at 16%, although he commanded a ridiculous 32% in Week 7 (which led to just three catches for 29 yards). There is no other tight end on the radar here, with Jeremy Ruckert running routes on only 24% of pass plays. 

Taylor clearly has the coaches' attention — the second-rounder saw 25 targets from Weeks 3-5 with a high of 12 against the Cowboys (another extremely porous defense). That workload led to a nine-catch, 67-yard day with a two-point conversion that added up to 17.7 fantasy points (TE8). With the team's WR1 out of the mix and the Bengals struggling to stop even the semblance of a tight end (Darnell Washington doesn't even look like one tbh), expect more of the same in the jungle on Sunday. 

Bold Prediction: Mason Taylor leads the Jets in receiving, finishes as a top-five fantasy TE

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Baker Mayfield
    BakerMayfield
    QBTBTB
    PPG
    18.39
    Proj
    18.44
  2. Aaron Rodgers
    AaronRodgers
    QBPITPIT
    PPG
    15.88
    Proj
    14.25
  3. Rashee Rice
    RasheeRice
    WRKCKC
    PPG
    19.10
  4. EmekaEgbuka
    WRTBTB
    PPG
    14.07
    Proj
    13.45