Week 8 WR/CB Matchups: Courtland Sutton and Rashee Rice Lining up For Big Days

Life is all about the little things.

Between my two jobs, I work most of the day. I’m not trying to highlight my hours worked as a fake badge of honor, but my days are busy. But the short pivots to do other stuff keep me focused on the big picture. I’ll go for a 30-minute run around my neighborhood, play Rocket League with my sons for a bit (and get smoked), cook a meal or find and send funny videos to my wife. Nothing earth-shattering. However, the time away helps me lock in once I sit back down at my desk, because the details are everything in this game we play.

It didn’t occur to me until late last week that Drake London might see fewer targets with Darnell Mooney set to return. Or DC Dennis Allen, who used to coach the Saints, might know how to limit Spencer Rattler’s effectiveness. Again, little things, like defensive matchups, could change how well our receivers perform on the field.

WR/CB Matchups to Target

Courtland Sutton vs Cowboys

At this point, we all look at Courtland Sutton as Denver’s WR1. But our agreement is due in part to the up-and-down nature of the Broncos’ offense. Bo Nix is 20th in EPA per play, behind Kyler Murray. The team as a whole sits in between the Ravens and Steelers in yards per drive (20th). Even Sutton’s 21% target rate isn’t much to write home about (29th among WRs), but when and where Nix looks for the 6-foot-4 receiver keeps him in the top-24 discussion.

Obvious Passing Situations: 30.9%, 1st
Under Pressure/Blitzed: 27.3%, T-1st
Red Zone: 22.0%, 2nd

OK, so Sutton’s volume is light relative to his peers, but the talent is there. Now, let’s factor in his situation on Sunday afternoon. Dallas has given up 16 passing TDs. That’s second-most in the league. Of those, 12 have gone to WRs (most in the league). But let’s assume that finding the end zone is volatile (it is). Earning targets and racking up yards are more predictable (they are!). Well, we’re in luck. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to WRs. Even better, most of them have gone to outside receivers (117.6).

Dallas does run zone coverage at the third-highest rate, limiting how often Sutton will face off against a specific defender. But the eight-year vet does lead the team in yards per route run against that type of defensive scheme. UPDATE: Diggs was placed on Injured Reserve Saturday, so Sutton will likely be pulling someone worse than the now-outdated sentence you're about to read. Plus, out of the Cowboys’ defenders, he’ll likely see CB Trevon Diggs the most based on pre-snap alignment data. Diggs has surrendered the fourth-highest reception rate of any corner with 200 or more coverage snaps and tied for the fourth-most TDs. In a game with the highest projected total for the week, Sutton has one of the highest floor-ceiling combinations heading into Week 8.

Rashee Rice vs the Commanders

You don’t need me to tell you to start Rashee Rice. The man came back from injury and suspension and got in the box twice. However, there were elements to his usage in Week 7 that open up the possibility for an even bigger performance out of the Chiefs’ slot man.

Rice had only a 48% route rate against the Raiders. In essence, he was a part-time player. But he was a full-time receiver for Patrick Mahomes. Rice is just the second player for Kansas City to earn double-digit targets in a single game all year. But how often he got a cardio workout isn’t the only takeaway from the chart. Check out the route depth, too.

Per TruMedia, Mahomes averaged 0.8 air yards per target when looking Rice’s way. It was 4.8 and 5.2 air yards in the previous two seasons. We should expect both the routes and depth to pick up as the weeks continue. And the Commanders’ slot CB Mike Sainristil is allowing the fourth-most yards per coverage snap of any interior defender (min. 50 slot snaps). With the Chiefs back to their scoring-happy ways, Rice’s instant involvement and path for more work put him in line for another top-12 week on Sunday.

Sneaky Matchups for Fantasy Football in Week 8

Zay Flowers vs the Bears

As of this writing, the uncertainty regarding Lamar Jackson’s availability is what puts Flowers into the “sneaky category.” But even with Cooper Rush or Tyler Huntley under center, teams still know where the ball is going for the Ravens.

Week 2 was the last time we saw the targets condense around the third-year WR, as he hoarded 10 targets in their romp over the Browns. Of course, we’d rather see No. 8 on the field at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday. But seeing who has gotten the best of Chicago’s secondary (13th in PPR PPG allowed to WRs), Flowers can win with either of the backups throwing him the ball.

Chris Olave (Week 7): 22.6% (Target Share), 31.8% (Slot Rate), 26.8 (PPR points)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Week 2): 39.3%, 38.0%, 39.2

In the three games since the Bears faced Detroit, they played against the Cowboys (without CeeDee Lamb), the Raiders and the Commanders (with a hobbled Deebo Samuel). Said another way, Olave and St. Brown are the only WRs like Flowers to go up against the Bears. And both outcomes ended poorly for Chicago’s corners. Specifically, CB Tyrique Stevenson, who gave up 66 yards in coverage to the Lions’ WR1 and got lost tracking Olave for a 57-yard explosive this past week. So, despite the potential for another shuffle at QB, Flowers has a top-24 finish in his range of outcomes for Week 8.

Romeo Doubs at the Steelers

I usually look at the Packers’ passing game as being too diverse to say which receiver I prefer. Plus, Josh Jacobs always finds a way to bully his way into the end zone, anyway. However, with a couple of Jordan Love’s options working through injuries, one of them has risen to the top.

Now, as I was kind of indicating, a 22% target rate in Green Bay isn’t the same as anywhere else. The Packers have a -2% pass rate over expected and have the fourth-highest red zone rushing rate. So, 6 targets a game for Romeo Doubs is like 8 or 9 elsewhere. Plus, with the aforementioned injuries to Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, Doubs has averaged 8.3 looks per game over the last three. So now let’s look at his Week 8 environment. I won’t skew the perception of the Steelers’ defense by adding the Bengals’ WRs to the list, but the other perimeter receivers to face Pittsburgh have been serviceable.

OK, I lied. If I can have any joy rooting for that ridiculous team down in Cincinnati, I’m going to do it.

Regardless, you can see the type of WRs that have been able to get by the Steelers’ secondary. CBs Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey (who both play outside, although Ramsey does shift to the interior) are inside the Top 25 of all corners in total receiving yards allowed. With Doubs becoming one of the focal points for the offense, he has the talent and situation to keep the role on Sunday.

Week 8 WR/CB Matchups to Avoid

Jauan Jennings at the Texans

On the positive side, Jauan Jennings suited up in primetime with five busted ribs and two ankle sprains, only to hoover up 30% of the targets. Kendrick Bourne went from 10 targets a week to 2 and a pitiful 14 air yards. However, in that same game, George Kittle ran 86% of the routes and got no passes thrown his way. It was the first time he ever finished a week without a catch. So, let’s assume the TE gets more involved against the Texans, reducing Jennings’ workload. Going up against the Texans won’t help the 49ers’ WR1.

Perimeter Receivers: 44.9%, 29th
Slot Receivers (Passing Success Rate): 45.2%, 27th
PPR PPG Allowed: 27.4, 28th

I broke out the success rates as Jennings has played 30.4% of his snaps from the slot. And typically, the varying pre-snap deployment would benefit receivers as they’d face weaker coverage inside. However, Jalen Pitre (Houston’s slot corner) is forcing the sixth-lowest passer rating when targeted. Anyway, I’ll put it to you another way.

The Texans have given up two TDs to WRs all season (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Emeka Egbuka). Only two receivers have gone over 100 yards against them (Puka Nacua, Smith-Njigba). With Houston’s ability to create pressure up front and limit explosives on the backend, we should lower our expectations for Jennings in Week 8.