Weelk 4 WR/CB Matchups For Fantasy Football: Zay Flowers Looks Unstoppable

My daughter separated from the military about a month ago and came home on Tuesday. After serving as an intel analyst, she and her wife packed up their apartment in California, loaded up a truck, and made the trek back to Ohio. We’d been planning her arrival for weeks. Even had movers on hand to help unload their truck after three days of driving. And during all the happy chaos of adjusting to a full house, we realized nobody made dinner.

Of course, tossing a lasagna in the oven won’t fix your fantasy roster. But there are so many problems hitting us at once. Our receivers (or their QBs) are injured. The guys we were counting on underperformed. Everyone on our opponent’s roster has their best day against us. It’s everything all at once. But we still need to remember to do everything we can to maximize our roster, like diving into the matchups to make the best start/sit decisions.

WR/CB Matchups to Target for Fantasy Football in Week 4

Quick Note: So, here’s where I’m at. I have a model compiling our rankings, projections, Dwain’s UR Score and on-field production to screen for potential candidates. But a WR’s result, which is an extension of QB play, has more factors to it. Trench warfare and a passer’s ability to adjust to pressure matter. In other words, I’ve tweaked the algo to account for these elements. And, at least for this week, I agree with the outputs.

Zay Flowers vs. Titans

If I had to guess, Zay Flowers is one of the few receivers who doesn’t require volume to acknowledge his talent.

Zay Flowers logged 21 snaps yesterday. Six targets, five catches for 85 yards (including 27 huge ones at the end) and a rush for 20.

Flowers has 10 catches for 234 yards in 41 snaps for the #Ravens this season. Just over half of one average game. pic.twitter.com/MKNCHSxHdQ
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) September 28, 2026

Mike Garafolo is seeing the bigger picture in his post. Casual gamers might look at 85 scoreless yards as mediocre. In PPR leagues, Flowers was the WR21. But when you contextualize how often he’s been on the field, his totals through Week 3 look like typos.

Targets per Route Run: 48.0%
YAC Per Reception: 11.7
Yards per Route Run: 9.36

Of course, with just 25 routes run on the season, the small denominator is doing some heavy lifting in a couple of those metrics. They’ll tail off as the season progresses. But that doesn’t mean we should discount what Flowers has done with his opportunity.

The Ravens’ WR1 has 10 catches through (roughly) 1.5 games. Every one of them has turned into a first down or score. Six of them have gone for 20 or more yards. And given Flowers’ specific injury, speed and burst only explain part of the mayhem he’s caused. Scheme plays a role, too.

OC Declan Doyle has had Flowers run from the slot on 67.6% of his snaps; almost doubling his 2025 rate (37.1%). But playing from the interior isn’t for high-percentage throws only. He has a 12.3-yard aDOT from the inside. With Rashod Bateman acting as a reliable outside threat, defenses grant Flowers weaker coverage and wind up paying for it.

Tennessee’s pass rush ranks 31st in pressure rate, and its secondary is allowing the 20th-most passing yards per game to receivers. Garrett Wilson tagged them for 79 yards on 7 targets, and DeVonta Smith clocked them for 117 and a score (from the slot) in Week 2. We’ll need to monitor his practice participation, but if he’s active, he’s a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 for Week 4.

Jaylen Waddle at 49ers

Jaylen Waddle played poorly in Week 1, came to life in Week 2, and fell back to earth in primetime against the Rams. By the pattern he’s established, Waddle will be a WR1 this weekend.

Done.

All right, I’m kidding. Let’s go to the film from Monday night.

On the Broncos' final drive of SNF, Jaylen Waddle might have gotten stepped on exiting a congested backfield. One play later, he appeared to be a little gimpy. Waddle sat out the play after that, but then returned for another play and seemed normal. https://t.co/LAUAHFNEza pic.twitter.com/8LhVq68pLp
— Jon Heath (@ByJonHeath) September 30, 2026

First, hat tip to Jon Heath for noticing Waddle’s (seemingly) minor in-game injury. It helps explain why video surfaced of him in a boot after Denver’s comeback win. But notice his varying pre-snap alignment. From the backfield, to the slot, to outside, OC Davis Webb was moving Waddle around to find openings for him. And that’s not a one-week thing.

Backfield (Snap Rate): 2.9% (Week 1), 5.7% (Week 2), 2.4% (Week 3)
Slot: 64.7%, 25.7%, 40.5%
Motion: 17.6%, 20.0%, 11.9%

I wonder if Waddle has run farther before the snap than after. Anyway, he’s been critical to Bo Nix anticipating what the defense will throw at him and kept them guessing by having his new receiver next to him in some shotgun formations.

More importantly, the extra cardio has translated to a steady flow of targets. After a Week 1 dud (12% target share), Waddle’s been at 25% or greater the last two weeks. But facing either LA CB, Jaylen Watson or Trent McDuffie, on six of your seven targets would limit anyone’s results.

#49ers Injury Report on Wednesday pic.twitter.com/TCzH5GGHaM
— 49ers & NFL News 24/7 (@49ersSportsTalk) September 30, 2026

San Francisco went from 6th in pressure rate in Week 1 to 27th against the Cardinals. The 49ers’ secondary has kept opposing passing games to the 11th-fewest receiving YPG through three weeks. But they’ve given up at least two explosive gains each week and will now be allowing Nix more time in the pocket. With Waddle still leading the Broncos’ pass-catching corps in looks, I’d give him the nod for a top-12 result this weekend.

Sneaky Matchups

Another Quick Note: As I’ve been saying, the guys listed here are the receivers you hover over for a second before moving onto your starting roster. They’re the “I’m not sure” options. But given their splash plays and upcoming situation, you could defend the decision to start them this weekend.

Michael Wilson at Giants

Because I live in Ohio, finding myself organically watching Cardinals’ games on Sundays isn’t a common occurrence. But I figured something was wrong when trade rumors surrounding Marvin Harrison Jr. started popping up earlier in the week. I see why after looking at Michael Wilson’s Utilization Report.

It’s not even a 1A/1B anymore. Well, maybe that’s the case between Wilson and Trey McBride. But everyone else without a 14 or 85 on their back is a role player in this offense. Wilson’s even getting more of the slot snaps that we hoped Harrison would see. But the larger tell is his aDOT (10.4 air yards).

Just two of his targets have had depths past 20 air yards. A third has been in the intermediate range. Essentially, he has a stable workload with more catchable looks. And against the Giants, that’s all we need.

Week 1 (at LAC): 15.4 (PPR points), WR20 (PPR Rank)
Week 2: 39.5, WR2
Week 3: 18.7, WR17

We’re looking at WR2 as a floor based on the first few weeks. And a few of their defenders are still nursing injuries. There is a bit of rain in the forecast for New Jersey, but we’ve got time to adjust expectations should conditions worsen. But with Wilson’s volume, he’s a top-24 option for Week 4.

Luther Burden vs. Jets

Admittedly, there’s nothing sneaky about advocating to start one of the most-hyped WRs of the offseason after he scored his first TD in ’26 on Monday night.

LUTHER BURDEN III TOUCHDOWN ON THE OPENING DRIVE!@PHIvsCHI on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/nIcigJhv1e
— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2026

But Luther Burden wasn’t the only Bears receiver to catch a TD pass from Case Keenum. And Kalif Raymond looked spry on his 41-yard scamper to the end zone. Also, Burden wasn’t the only Chicago WR to earn five or more targets in that game. Rome Odunze made a few big-boy catches to keep the offense ahead of the sticks. However, if I were to make the case for Burden, it’d be through his three-week usage trend.

The frustrating part is Burden’s continued rotational role. But his target shares have crept up each week. Critically, his QBs, Caleb Williams or Keenum, have started to look for the second-year receiver in the end zone. As a result, Burden doesn’t have to rely on big plays to be a hit in the boxscore.

The Jets have improved on the defensive side of the ball (allowing the third-fewest passing YPG). But their opponents are still staying on schedule with the 12th-highest passing success rate when passing against New York’s secondary. And without a strong pass rush, HC Ben Johnson will have more than enough to scheme up another solid game for Keenum and Burden.

WR/CB Matchup to Avoid in Week 4 for Fantasy Football

Final Note: Taking the time to foot-stomp the idea that “avoid” doesn’t mean bench. Based on their environment, we should look to other players on the roster to help you win the week.

George Pickens at Texans

On the bright side, I’m not here to denigrate George Pickens because of a usage gap. I had my concerns in Week 1, but since then, the targets have balanced out between him and CeeDee Lamb.

However, let’s add another layer to Pickens’ on-field deployment. His slot rates through three weeks have been 4.5%, 2.4% and 8.3%. Dak Prescott has thrown to Pickens just twice from the interior. And unfortunately, Dallas’ WR1B doesn’t fit the archetype of receivers who’ve won from the same area against the Texans.

Week 1: DJ Moore, 4-85-1
Week 2: Ja'Marr Chase, 6-66-2

To be fair, Pickens still has the deep speed to turn a post route into a TD like Josh Palmer. Pickens can make a sideline grab like Tee Higgins most weekends, too. But the combination of Houston’s defensive front and its perimeter coverage has me lowering expectations for Pickens on Sunday.