WR Rankings Downgrades For Week 7 Fantasy Football: Chris Olave & More

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Chiefs and Vikings are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for WRs.

• Chiefs: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs (15.9)
• Vikings: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.218)

Here be dragons.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs. Chiefs: If you have him, you always start him. He's obviously awesome (23.4 fantasy points per game, 49-717-7 receiving, 66 targets with 1-16-0 rushing). His efficiency is elite (10.9 yards per target), and his usage is legendary (91% route rate, 37% target share, 49% air yard share, 50% end-zone target share, 97 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). He's the No. 1 WR in WOPR (90%). He might be the best pass catcher in the league. Plus, the Seahawks have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and they have an amplified home-field advantage because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). But the matchup is real: The Chiefs are No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (-55.2%), and that's not fluky. Under DC Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs are yet to allow a WR to get even 75 yards receiving. Of course, Smith-Njigba is yet to have a game with fewer than 76 yards. When two equal but opposite forces meet, what happens? A modest downgrade. The more I consider Smith-Njigba this week, the more I think I might actually rank him just outside the top tier. 

You can see aDOT, air yards, and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Josh Downs (Colts) at Vikings: I don't know why, but it truly gives me pleasure to highlight Downs as a fantasy fade. For years, I've thought he's overrated. And I believe we've seen evidence of that over the past four weeks without No. 1 WR Alec Pierce (heel, IR). Even though Downs has finally been a full-time player in that span (89% route rate), he has been utterly mediocre (6.6 fantasy points per game, 15-180-0 receiving, 29 targets, 59 Utilization Score). And his setup is subpar: The Colts are on their third away game in four weeks, and the Vikings are coming off the bye at home, where they've had the No. 3 home-field advantage over the past 16 games (+7.57, per NFElo). I can't imagine starting Downs in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Scoring Downgrades In The Week 7 WR Ranks: Tre Tucker vs. Rams & Emeka Egbuka at Panthers

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the WRs."

This week the Raiders are No. 18 in implied team total (21.5), and the Buccaneers are No. 19 (20.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs. Rams: Last week I highlighted Tucker as a fantasy favorite, and he rewarded my faith with his best performance of the season (24.2 fantasy points, 5-97-2 receiving, 7 targets). But let's be real … Tucker is a true boom/bust merchant. This year he has two games with more than 20.0 fantasy points and four games with fewer than 6.5. The setup is decent for the Raiders. This is their third home game in four weeks, and they have a boosted home-field advantage against the Rams because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). But the Rams are No. 3 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (-30.0%) and No. 4 in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs (21.6). This doesn't feel like a boom game to me.

Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) at Panthers: In his three games with undrafted rookie backup QB Jalon Daniels starting in place of QB Baker Mayfield (thumb), Egbuka has had phenomenal usage (93% route rate, 50% air yard share, 67% end-zone target share). In sum, elite volume (29 targets, 33% target share). And yet it has translated into little of substance (15-99-1 receiving, 3.4 yards per target). The biggest boost to his production (10.3 fantasy points per game) was a fluky-ish 2021 Deebo Samuel-esque 14-yard rushing TD … and that's not the kind of thing that's projectable or reliable. The Panthers are without CBs Jaycee Horn (quadriceps, IR) and Mike Jackson (groin, IR), but with Daniels "throwing" him the ball, I doubt Egbuka will be able to exploit his opportunity.

Week 7 Situational Downgrades In My WR Rankings: Chris Olave vs. Steelers & Xavier Worthy at Seahawks

In general, I want to avoid WRs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Chris Olave (Saints) vs. Steelers (in Paris): Olave is having a great season (15.3 fantasy points per game, 43-580-2 receiving, 61 targets, 92 Utilization Score). But this isn't a great spot for him: The Saints are playing their second straight game on the road … and this one's in Paris, where they have an away disadvantage because they're on grass (vs. turf) and outdoors (vs. indoors). Also, the matchup isn't easy: The Steelers are No. 6 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.035) and No. 7 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (-17.7%). Plus, the Saints are without LT Kelvin Banks (ankle, IR) and could also be without RG Cesar Ruiz (knee).

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) at Seahawks: As noted earlier in the Jaxon Smith-Njigba blurb, the Seahawks have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and they have an amplified home-field advantage because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). Additionally, the Chiefs could be without their OL bookends in LT Josh Simmons (back) and RT Jaylon Moore (concussion). Ordinarily, with No. 1 WR Rashee Rice (hamstring) still uncertain and No. 2 WR Tyquan Thornton (ankle, IR) out, I'd think of Worthy as a fantasy favorite. And since Rice and Thornton exited in Week 4, Worthy has been acceptable (9.9 fantasy points per game, 11-143-0 receiving, 14 targets, 88% route rate). Plus, QB Patrick Mahomes, as a road dog, has been an all-time moneymaker (10-1-1 ATS, 72.3% ROI, per Action Network). But the matchup is brutal: The Seahawks are No. 2 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.060) and defensive dropback SR (39.2%).

Notes

Week 7 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bills, Jaguars, Commanders, and Chargers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)