Guillotine Leagues™ vs. Redraft, Derrick Henry vs. Brock Bowers: Showing The Differences In Drafting

Fellow choppers, it's Paul Charchian, founder of GuillotineLeagues.com. I'm here to help demonstrate some of the ways that your Guillotine Leagues™ draft should be different from a standard draft.

Many of you are facing your first-ever Guillotine Leagues™ draft. Coming in cold, you're in danger of copying your usual redraft strategies. But Guillotine Leagues™ is a whole different beast, which I'll demonstrate through the first 10 rounds of a sample draft below. With each pick, you'll learn why I'm pivoting away from a typical ADP selection.

For this exercise, I'm picking right in the middle of every round, using ADP data from standard redraft leagues and Guillotine-specific leagues at GuillotineLeagues.com.

Guillotine Leagues™ vs. Redraft

ROUND 1.9

Standard ADP says to take: BAL RB Derrick Henry
Guillotine Charch takes: LV TE Brock Bowers

Sloughing the tight end position is the single most harrowing decision you can make with a Guillotine draft. There simply aren't 18 good tight ends. You're staring at a scenario where you enter Week 1 with Kyle Pitts or Cade Otton as your starting tight end. Last year, Bowers set the all-time NFL record for receptions by a rookie at any position. Yes, Ashton Jeanty will siphon off carries, but Jeanty will also provide fewer punts, longer drives, and more touchdown opportunities for every Raider. What if Bowers is 20% better as a sophomore?

Is Derrick Henry a bad pick? Of course not. But in a PPR scoring system, non-catching backs can be lethal in any game that doesn't include a touchdown.

ROUND 2.10

Standard ADP says to take: GB RB Josh Jacobs
Guillotine Charch takes: NO RB Alvin Kamara

I know, I know, the Saints offense is as exciting as eating room-temperature lima beans while watching Two Broke Girls reruns. But it's almost impossible for the Saints to be worse than last year (that's not a challenge, Kellen Moore), and Kamara finished as RB9 in PPR scoring last season. Kamara played gallantly, posting his highest yards per carry in three years. His 18% broken tackle rate wasn't great, but it was identical to Saquon Barkley and James Cook. The addition of first-round left tackle Kelvin Banks should make an immediate impact.

And here's where Kamara is Guillotine gold: his absurdly high PPR floor. Over the last two years, he's scored at least 6 PPR points just from receiving in 23 of 27 games. He almost never produces dud games.

ROUND 3.09

ADP says to take: LAR WR Davante Adams
Guillotine Charch takes: DEN WR Courtland Sutton

Anytime I'm debating between two receivers, I always take the guy who's his team's go-to alpha receiver. That means I'm taking Denver's Courtland Sutton over similar-ADP guys like Davante Adams and DeVonta Smith. Obviously, Adams and Smith are talented players on good offenses. But, in Guillotine, we're looking for consistency, and Adams and Smith sometimes play second fiddle to the other superstars on their team, Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown, respectively. Not to mention the running backs on their teams.

In Guillotine, we care a lot about target share, and Sutton's alpha status ensures that he's always getting fed. After Bo Nix started cookin' in Week 6, Sutton averaged 8.5 targets and 5.8 catches per game. From Week 6 forward, Sutton finished as WR12, despite a rookie quarterback, no running game, and a battered offensive line that couldn't set up many long plays. All of those situations should improve this year.

And his big, physical frame makes Sutton an ongoing end zone target. Only Mike Evans averaged more end zone targets per game than Sutton.

ROUND 4.10

ADP says to take: DET WR Jameson Williams
Guillotine Charch takes: NYG RB Tyrone Tracy

Spike-week guys like Jameson Williams are the exact wrong types of players for Guillotine use. In standard (let's be honest, boring) leagues, Williams is an intriguing prospect for a breakout season, with enough big plays to counteract his dud games. But not in Guillotine, where we want consistency.

Now a sophomore, Tracy could/should be improved, particularly when you remember he's a converted wide receiver who had only 146 career rushes in college and 192 last year. He spent last year learning the running back position on the job. Even with those disadvantages, he averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry in a backward offense with a broken offensive line.

Tracy lacks bulk and Cam Skattebo will vulture all the short touchdowns. But, with his receiving chops, Tracy should see a jump in receptions from last year, when he (weirdly) averaged just 2.6 receptions and 19 receiving yards per game.

Round 5.09

ADP says to take: KC QB Patrick Mahomes
Guillotine Charch takes: Hou RB Nick Chubb

It's been years since I've drafted Patrick Mahomes in a Guillotine League. Obviously, he's a great quarterback. But in Guillotine Leagues™ in particular, he's also a shockingly replaceable quarterback. Last year, he finished as QB11 in fantasy scoring, right next to Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold. If I don't select one of the elite dual-threat passers earlier in the draft, I'm not going to burn a 5th-rounder on Mahomes.

We're focused on staying alive in September, and it looks like Nick Chubb will be the starting running back for the Texans—or at worse, a timeshare. Joe Mixon is still in a walking boot, has missed all of training camp, and didn't practice all offseason. Chubb is still 29 years old, and with a second year between his ACL/MCL injury, he's got a chance to return to his pre-injury form, or close to it.

ROUND 6.10

ADP says to take: MIN WR Jordan Addison
Guillotine Charch takes: LV WR Jakobi Meyers

Jordan Addison will miss the first three games of the season, making him plutonium for Guillotine drafters. There's a good chance he gets chopped during those three games, so if you still want Addison at that point, you can bid on him from the waiver wire.

With Ashton Jeanty on the roster, the Raiders are likely to become one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. And while that caps Meyers' upside, he's still a very viable Guillotine asset, particularly for the first two months of the season, when we want a high floor, not a high ceiling.

Despite some truly awful quarterbacking last year, Meyers posted double-digit PPR points in nine of the last 11 games. The Raiders drafted a bunch of rookie receivers, but none of them appear ready to dethrone Meyers as the Raiders' workhorse wideout. And Geno Smith is the best passer Meyers has had since Tom Brady.

ROUND 7.09

ADP says to take: MIN RB Aaron Jones
Guillotine Charch takes: WAS RB Austin Ekeler

I expected the Commanders to improve the running back depth chart in the offseason, but it didn't happen, leaving the moribund Brian Robinson as the starter and Austin Ekeler as the third-down back. Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt has looked intriguing in training camp, but he's not a receiver, so if anything, he'll take reps from Robinson.

Everyone wants a part of the emergent Washington offense, and Ekeler's the best value of any Commander in the draft. Ekeler's PPR chops, chipping in roughly 6 PPR points per game added to his rushing, is enough to make him a Guillotine starter for the first third of the year, and maybe longer.

ROUND 8.10

ADP says to take: CHI QB Caleb Williams
Guillotine Charch takes: Hou QB C.J. Stroud

Earlier I talked about sloughing quarterbacks—a viable strategy in Guillotine because there's more than 18 plausible start-worthy passers. The eighth round is when it gets real, because the pool is thinning a lot.

I worry about choosing Caleb Williams because I don't know how long it's going to take for him to acclimate to Ben Johnson's new system. And I don't love his early-season schedule, particularly Week 1 against Minnesota and his Week 5 bye.

I'm going to roll the dice on Stroud here. He's not my long-term answer; I'll replace him by midseason. But he's got one of the easiest schedules at the start of the year. In fantasy points allowed to passers, his first five opponents ranked 21st, 30th, 28th, 16th, and 22nd last year.

Round 9.09

ADP says to take: ATL TE Kyle Pitts
Guillotine Charch takes: Sea QB Sam Darnold

I don't have the hard data to back this up, but I estimate that Kyle Pitts has chopped more Guillotine managers than anyone else since entering the league in 2021. No chance I'm rolling the dice on that guy, even if he's sitting on a (very rare) fifth-year breakout.

Since we sloughed the quarterback position for so long, I'm going to double down with another passer, this time Sam Darnold, who finished as QB12 last year. Seattle's a less potent offense than Minnesota, but Darnold can be a spot starter if my plan for Stroud doesn't work out.

Round 10.10

ADP says to take: Car WR Xavier Legette
Guillotine Charch takes: Car WR Adam Thielen

It's possible that 2024 first-rounder Xavier Legette makes a big jump in his sophomore year. But that process could take weeks or months to become fully realized. And remember, Adam Thielen was downright magnificent with Young once he got past his midseason hamstring injury. From Weeks 13 forward, Thielen was PFF's WR11 and WR20 in PPR fantasy points. I vividly recall two astounding, circus catches, the likes of which few players can replicate.

The drafting of Tetairoa McMillan doesn't change my outlook for Thielen, who'll enter the season with all the advantages that come with his veteran skill set and a full season under Dave Canales. I expect Thielen to start the season as the team's starter. And, unless he's fallen off the cliff at age 35, he can pick up where he left off last year.