Guillotine Leagues™️ Cheat Sheet For Week 7: Jaylen Warren Helps Avoid The Chop

Week 7 has arrived is here, and with it the usual amount of benchings, elevations and injuries to follow. And we have four teams on bye weeks, so say adios to Josh Allen, James Cook, Jayden Daniels and Parker Washington, among others. Hopefully the guillotine falls elsewhere, so we can welcome them back like we will for Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson this week.

We have no bye weeks, so to help you to keep surviving the chop in Guillotine Leagues™️, Matthew Freedman, Kendall Valenzuela and Pete Overzet got together for a round table discussion with several player recommendations for this week. Also, make sure to consult our fantasy football rankings, fantasy football projections and DvP Tool when setting your lineup.

Who do you like as a strong "RB floor play" in Week 7?

Freedman: Braelon Allen (Jets) vs. Dolphins

This is my third straight week to highlight Allen as a favorite, and honestly … nailed it. No. 1 RB Breece Hall (quadriceps) has been out the past three weeks, and in his absence Allen has had respectable production (12.4 fantasy points per game, 287 yards, 1 TD on 55 carries, 8 targets) and strong usage (88% snap rate, 80% rush share, 64% route rate, 79 Utilization Score). The Dolphins are coming off the bye, but they're No. 29 in defensive rush SR (42.6%), and the Jets are -4.5 favorites at home. The Dolphins are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.2).

Via my Week 7 RB Favorites

Kendall: Jaylen Warren vs. Saints

I know Rico Dowdle coming back from injury is scary for Jaylen Warren managers, especially after last weekend saw him reach only 9.8 fantasy points, but the underlying utilization is so strong. In Week 6, he had a 63% rush share and 55% route share, and there is a chance for more even with the presence of Dowdle. Another bright spot is that New Orleans has allowed six different running backs to score 15-plus fantasy points against them.

Pete: Ollie Gordon vs. Jets

Let's get a little cheeky with this pick and go off the board. This is Gordon's backfield and the Jets are a legit run funnel. They give up the 6th-most rushing yards to opposing RBs. Gordon is a great bet for 60+ yards and a TD here.

Who do you like as a strong "WR floor play" in Week 7?

Freedman: Germie Bernard (Steelers) vs. Saints (in Paris)

Even as a rookie, Bernard has flashed WR1 upside this season. Over the past two weeks, with injuries to WRs Michael Pittman (foot, IR) and Roman Wilson (finger, IR), Bernard has dominated (15.8 fantasy points per game, 17-167-1 receiving, 21 targets, 96% route rate, 86 Utilization Score with 1-4-0 rushing). At Stade de France, the Steelers have more of an edge because they play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. The Saints are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (50.8%), and they're injured at all levels of the defense: DT Bryan Bresee (knee, IR) is out, and DT Nathan Shepherd (illness), LB Kaden Elliss (calf), and CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry (migraine) and Quincy Riley (neck) might sit.

Via my Week 7 WR Favorites

Kendall: DK Metcalf vs. Saints

I don't usually talk highly of DK Metcalf for fantasy, but we have to give him credit! Over the last three games he is averaging 14 points per game. He's a WR3 in the Fantasy Life rankings this weekend and I expect this to be a high-volume game on both sides of the ball. The Saints have allowed the ninth most air yards over the past two games.

Pete: Jalen Coker vs. the Bucs

He isn't the WR2 anymore–he leads the team with a 31% target share in his three healthy games. Best of all? The Panthers are chucking it—on pace to drop back to pass 153 times more than the average NFL team, s/o Dwain for that stat. This is a solid matchup, too.

Which "stud" are you considering benching in Week 7?

Freedman: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) at Seahawks:

Last week, I highlighted Mahomes as a fantasy fade, and he responded with a modest performance (11.5 fantasy points, 272 yards passing, 0 TDs, 1 INT with 5-16-0 rushing). I expect something somewhat similar this week. On top of the matchup, the Seahawks have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and they have an amplified home-field advantage because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). Here's the thing: Mahomes as a road dog has been an all-time moneymaker (10-1-1 ATS, 72.3% ROI, per Action Network). I hate the idea of actually fading him in this spot. But he could be down four starters in WRs Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle, IR), LT Josh Simmons (back), and RT Jaylon Moore (concussion). The Seahawks are No. 2 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-5.6).

Via my Week 7 QB Fades

Kendall: Tyler Warren vs. Vikings

Tyler Warren missed Week 6 with a groin injury, but if he is able to come back this week it will not be the easiest spot against the Vikings. Minnesota is SCARY. Like … woof. They haven't given up a 10-point fantasy game to a tight end this season. And if you're sitting there thinking "okay they must not have faced THAT many good players" well may I present to you: Tucker Kraft, Colston Loveland, and Juwan Johnson. PASS.

Pete: Garrett Wilson vs. Jets

OK, I'm probably not actually sitting him, but should you consider it? The Dolphins are much easier to run on and we've previously seen Wilson get eclipsed by both Adonai Mitchell–who is likely to return–and Omar Cooper last week. I think we probably need to reframe how we feel about Wilson. The ceiling is still there, but the floor is shaky.

Who's the one guy who might not have a solid floor but who makes you say, "Screw it, I'm starting him anyway"?

Freedman: Jordan Watkins (49ers) at Falcons

Who? The 49ers WR who had a 91% route rate on Monday Night Football. No. 1 WR Mike Evans (Achilles) exited last week with an injury, and No. 2 WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out, as are WRs Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR), Christian Kirk (calf, IR), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle, IR) and Demarcus Robinson (ankle, IR), and No. 2 TE Jake Tonges (knee, IR). The second-year depth option has done almost nothing in the NFL (5-108-0 receiving, 6 targets), but at least he has been explosive with his few opportunities (18.0 yards per target). The setup isn't great. The 49ers are on a one-day deficit. They're traveling across the country for an early 1 pm ET kickoff. And the Falcons are on their third straight game at home, where they have a boosted edge because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). Still, the Falcons could be without four defensive starters in LBs Divine Deablo (arm) and Kendal Daniels (neck) and CBs C.J. Henderson (groin) and Billy Bowman (hamstring), and someone's gonna need to catch the ball from QB Brock Purdy. Why shouldn't Watkins get a handful of targets? You remember WR Richie James in Week 9 of the 2020 season (9-184-1 receiving, 13 targets)? Just sayin' …

Via my Week 7 WR Favorites

Kendall: Omar Cooper vs. Dolphins

I know Omar Cooper is the trendy name right now, but I say put him right back in your lineups! According to The Athletic, Cooper will probably face Chris Johnson, who has allowed a 91.7% completion rate and 101 passer rating. We should expect more from Garrett Wilson now that he doesn't have Christian Gonzalez on him, but Geno Smith is averaging 223 yards per game right now, so we could have multiple fantasy-relevant starters here.

Pete: Ja'Kobi Lane vs. the Bengals

If Lamar Jackson is back, Lane is going to start ripping off some big games. Zay Flowers is a monster, but with Rashod Bateman out and Mark Andrews cooked, Lane is going to get plenty of looks in the red zone.

Which player do you think will have the highest "chop rate" in Week 7?

Freedman: Brock Bowers (Raiders) vs. Rams

Relax. It's not as if I'm telling you to bench Bowers in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week. Since making his season debut in Week 3, Bowers has dominated (17.1 fantasy points per game, 28-382-3 receiving, 43 targets, 100 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The setup is decent for the Raiders. This is their third home game in four weeks, and they have a boosted home-field advantage against the Rams because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). Plus, the Rams might be without CB Trent McDuffie (groin). But the matchup is brutal: The Rams are No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (6.0) and smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-6.6). When two equal but opposite forces meet, what happens? A modest downgrade … but the downside is real.

Via my Week 7 TE Fades

Kendall: Josh Allen vs. NO ONE!

What are you going to do now Josh Allen managers?! Welcome to the real world! Yes, I am jealous that you have him in Guillotine Leagues, can you tell?

Pete: Jonathan Taylor vs. the Vikings

This offense is in rough shape and a road date with the NFL's top defense isn't the spot to turn things around. You have to start Taylor, but he's also going to sink you. Tough luck.