Upgrades For Week 7 Running Back Rankings: Braelon Allen Keeps Rolling

Let's get into the Week 7 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 7 favorites and fades.

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Week 7 Running Back Rankings

Rank	Player
1	Jahmyr Gibbs
2	Bijan Robinson
3	Christian McCaffrey
4	Kenneth Walker
5	Kyren Williams
6	Derrick Henry
7	Jonathan Taylor
8	Javonte Williams
9	Jaylen Warren
10	D'Andre Swift
12	Chuba Hubbard
13	Bucky Irving
14	Ashton Jeanty
15	Chase Brown
16	Rhamondre Stevenson
17	Josh Jacobs
18	Jo'quavioius Marks
19	Breece Hall
20	Braelon Allen
21	Dameon Pierce
22	Aaron Jones
23	Ollie Gordon
24	Blake Corum

Week 7 Matchup Upgrades: Jaylen Warren vs. Saints & Braelon Allen vs. Dolphins

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Saints and Dolphins are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.

Saints: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+6.0)
Dolphins: No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.2)

Bang a gong.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs. Saints (in Paris): Even with the return last week of teammate Rico Dowdle, Warren retained a large role (74% snap rate, 63% rush share, 100% goal-line rush share, 55% route rate, 70 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). His stat line was nothing special (8.8 fantasy points, 78 yards, 0 TDs on 14 carries, 4 targets), but this week I expect his usage to translate into strong utility. At Stade de France, the Steelers have an edge because they play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium, and QB Aaron Rodgers tends to outperform as a favorite (118-87-3 ATS, 12.2% ROI, per Action Network). The Saints are dealing with injuries in the front seven: DT Bryan Bresee (knee, IR) is out, and DT Nathan Shepherd (illness) and LB Kaden Elliss (calf) might sit.

Braelon Allen (Jets) vs. Dolphins: This is my third straight week to highlight Allen as a favorite, and honestly … nailed it. No. 1 RB Breece Hall (quadriceps) has been out the past three weeks, and in his absence Allen has had respectable production (12.4 fantasy points per game, 287 yards, 1 TD on 55 carries, 8 targets) and strong usage (88% snap rate, 80% rush share, 64% route rate, 79 Utilization Score). The Dolphins are coming off the bye, but they're No. 29 in defensive rush SR (42.6%), and the Jets are -4.5 favorites at home.

Week 7 Scoring Upgrades: Derrick Henry vs. Bengals & D'Andre Swift vs. Patriots

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."

This week, the Ravens and Bears are tied for No. 2 in implied team total (26.75 points).

Upgrades warranted.

Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Bengals: Right now the Ravens (in my opinion) are priced as if QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) will play. Maybe he will. But even if he doesn't, I'll probably still be bullish on Henry against the Bengals, who are coming off the bye but also No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.040). Last year, they allowed Henry to hit 100+ scrimmage yards in both matchups. For the season, Henry's producing like his typical self (18.7 fantasy points per game, 598 yards, 8 TDs on 130 carries, 10 targets, 75 Utilization Score).

D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs. Patriots: This is the sixth (SIXTH!) time this year Swift has been a fantasy favorite of mine. That might seem extreme, but it's hard to quibble with what he has done (15.8 fantasy points per game, 538 yards, 6 TDs on 94 carries, 21 targets, 77 Utilization Score), especially without No. 2 RB Kyle Monangai (toe) over the past two weeks (18.2 fantasy points per game, 143 yards, 3 TDs on 25 carries, 10 targets, 82 Utilization Score). With the return of QB Caleb Williams last week, the Bears offense is in fine form, and Williams throughout his career has been his best outside division (17-7-1 ATS, 34.9% ROI). Over the past five years, the Bears have had the league's No. 4 home-field advantage (+5.54, per NFElo), and they have a boosted home edge against the Pats because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf).

Week 7 Home Favorite Upgrades: Chuba Hubbard vs. Buccaneers & Aaron Jones vs. Colts

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs. Buccaneers: The matchup isn't great. The Bucs are No. 5 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (14.8). But Hubbard has been a total stud in three games without No. 2 RB Jonathon Brooks (abdomen, IR) since Week 3 (19.0 fantasy points per game, 360 yards, 3 TDs on 67 carries, 8 targets, 87 Utilization Score). With 25+ points in four of five games, the Panthers offense might actually be legit, and QB Bryce Young tends to outperform at home (14-9-1 ATS, 16.4% ROI), where the Panthers are -3.5 favorites.

Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs. Colts: I tentatively expect No. 2 RB Jordan Mason (thumb, IR) to return this week, and that will cut into Jones' workload, but it's possible the team will ease Mason back into action, especially given how good Jones has been since Week 3 in his three full games with QB Kyler Murray (14.6 fantasy points per game, 337 yards, 1 TD on 62 carries, 17 targets, 95 Utilization Score). Coming off the bye, Jones could still see plenty of work as a -6.5 home favorite against the Colts, who are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (-0.006) and DVOA (2.8%).

Week 7 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Dameon Pierce vs. Cowboys & Woody Marks vs. Giants

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Dameon Pierce (Eagles) vs. Cowboys: The situation is something of a mixed bag. On the one hand, No. 1 RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring) is uncertain. Nos. 2-3 RBs Will Shipley (foot, IR) and Tank Bigsby (abdomen, IR) are out. And depth FB/RB Carson Steele (shoulder) exited last week with an injury. Amidst all this backfield chaos, Pierce has emerged as the team's top back (88% snap rate, 74 Utilization Score). On the other hand, Pierce has failed to capitalize on his opportunity so far (7.6 fantasy points per game, 62 yards, 1 TD on 23 carries, 10 targets). I don't love that HC Nick Sirianni has been hilariously incompetent as a home dog (1-7 ATS, -76.1% ROI): I expect the Philly faithful to boo the team by halftime. But the Cowboys are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.1) and on their fifth away game in seven weeks, whereas the Eagles are on their third home game in four weeks. On top of that, the Cowboys could be without LBs Dee Winters (ankle) and DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring). This might be the most disgusting thing I ever say: I'd consider starting Pierce in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Woody Marks (Texans) vs. Giants: Marks is not a good player (3.5 yards per carry, 4.9 yards per target this year). But since No. 1 RB David Montgomery (groin) exited early in Week 5, Marks has been serviceable (9.8 fantasy points per game, 166 yards, 0 TDs on 30 carries, 7 targets, 76 Utilization Score). Although the Texans are coming off the London game and have traveled more than any other team over the past month (10,609 miles), they're at least at home, where they're -9.5 favorites. The Giants are without EDGE Brian Burns (knee, IR) and could also be down LB Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder).

Notes

Week 7 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bills, Jaguars, Commanders, and Chargers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.