Running Back Downgrades for Guillotine Leagues™ 2025: It's Time To Fade CMC
Paul Charchian offers up five running backs who he's lower on in Guillotine Leagues™ than in standard re-draft leagues, including why he's 40 (!!) spots lower on Vikings RB Aaron Jones.
August means draft season, and splitting your time between redraft and Guillotine Leagues™ can prove challenging.
Like every fantasy league, winning Guillotine Leagues™ starts on draft day. You can definitely recover from a bad draft more easily in Guillotine Leagues™—after all, you can simply spend your way to a better roster. But, a great draft means that you don't have to spend money early, giving you a major late-season advantage.
So, let's take a look at the different decisions I'd make at the running back position with five players whom I value LOWER in Guillotine Leagues™ than in fantasy.
Christian McCaffrey - 49ers
– 11 spots lower than standard league rankings
Long-term Guillotine Leagues™ success hinges on risk mitigation. You're not drafting to be the best team, you're drafting to avoid being a bad team. And few players carry the danger of Christian McCaffrey, which mitigates much of his upside utility.
And as you know, he's had a litany of injuries that have sidelined him for massive swaths of the 2020, 2021 and 2024 seasons. Most recently, he's coming off double bilateral Achilles tendonitis, an injury that can recur, especially in athletes who can't afford to rest during the season. He's 28 years old, which isn't awful, but his 1,871 touches are a lot. With rare exceptions, the NFL is a young man's game, cruelly so.
The return of Trent Williams helps an offensive line that regressed last year, slumping to 24th in Run Block Win Rate. Even so, Williams is 36 years old, and presumably at the very end of his productive playing days.
James Cook - Bills
– 8 spots lower than standard league rankings
At this time last year, we were talking about Cook as a candidate to find the end zone far more often than his meager two touchdowns in 2023. After exploding to 18 touchdowns last year, the opposite could be true now. With a quarterback who steals short scores, Cook's 2025 should be closer to halfway between his two- and 18-score seasons. And that makes his ADP a tad rich for Guillotine Leagues™ use.
Receptions are also a key safety net in PPR Guillotine Leagues™, and Cook's went down noticeably last season, his first with offensive coordinator Joe Brady. He caught just 32 passes for 258 yards, about 2/3rds of his previous season, pre-Brady.
Joe Mixon - Texans
– 18 spots lower than standard league rankings
Earlier this offseason, I talked about my worries with Joe Mixon ...
"The Texans' OL was awful last year and doesn't look any better this season. Last year, Houston ranked 30th in ESPN's Run Block Win Rate and 27th in PFF's run-blocking rating. Also worrisome, Mixon ran out of gas last year. Over his final six games, he drooped to 29th in rushing yards, 31st in yards per carry, and 25th in avoided tackle rate."
I also worry a little bit about the fact that he was in a walking boot as recently as June, although hopefully, that won't be a factor by training camp.
If you feel like Mixon will repeat last year, starting the season strong, but fading, he's still viable in Guillotine Leagues™, because you can upgrade players later.
Aaron Jones - Vikings
– 40 spots lower than standard league rankings
Aaron Jones was forced into a workhorse role last year, one that he's not built for. God bless him for playing all 17 games, but Jones' efficiency tailed off last year, and the Vikings are going to limit his use this year.
Minnesota traded for Jordan Mason, and the Vikings backfield is going to be much closer to a 50:50 split than people realize. And critically, Mason is going to get the goal-line work. And Mason is really good!
Among players with his 234 carries since entering the league, Mason ranks third in yards after contact behind Derrick Henry and De'Von Achane. Last year, he ranked No. 1 in broken tackle rate, 37% per Next Gen Stats.
Jaylen Warren - Steelers
– 18 spots lower than standard league rankings
With Najee Harris gone, some people believe Warren will get a huge boost in touches. But I see his role only increasing modestly. Aside from one year in college, Warren's never been a workhorse. And stylistically, it's hard to see Warren suddenly turning into a 20-touch back.
Rookie Kaleb Johnson, meanwhile, was an absolute workhorse at Iowa, carrying the entire offense on his back. Johnson figures to get plenty of work, including at the goal line. Last year, he piled up a whopping 240 carries, 1537 yards, and 23 touchdowns.
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