Texas vs. Tennessee Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 4
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Texas vs. Tennessee Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 4

College GameDay heads to Knoxville, Tenn., this week for a matchup between the Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers. Kody Malstrom breaks down the game from a betting perspective with predictions, picks and prop bets.

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Gameday is heading to Knoxville, pitting Tennessee against Texas with the winner securing an edge in the SEC conference standings. Even though Tennessee has been able to remain perfect, the Longhorns are a massive step up in quality of opponent, giving the Vols the opportunity to add an impressive win to their resume.

Texas vs. Tennessee Betting Odds For Week 4

  • Spread: Texas -5 (-110, BetMGM)
  • Moneyline: Texas (-210, bet365)
  • Game Total: 56.5 (Over -110/Under -110, theScore Bet)

After winning the job as a true freshman, Faizon Brandon has been able to hit the ground running, leading Tennessee to a 3-0 start to the year. His dual-threat abilities have been on full display this season, throwing for 552 yards and six touchdowns while adding another 137 yards and three scores with his legs.

With Brandon under center, the Vols have been efficient, ranking near the top of the board in offensive success rate and finishing drives. Brandon has also been able to keep a clean sheet a quarter into the season, making it easier for Tennessee to move the ball down the field.

Heading into Week 4, all eyes will be on the Vols with Texas coming into town, making it the Gameday game of the week. While the spotlight will be shining bright on Brandon and Arch Manning, it will be the defense that steals the show, turning the top-25 matchup into a defensive slugfest.

Prediction & Pick For Texas vs. Tennessee Week 4 Matchup

  • The Pick: u56.5 (-110, theScore Bet)

Even though Brandon has done an exceptional job at brushing aside growing pains, the production he receives from his defense has also helped him avoid playing in high-variance contests, fielding a group that ranks 17th in defensive explosiveness and 19th in havoc. By creating disruptions at a high rate, Tennessee’s opponents are unable to get into a rhythm, making it easier to stall them out early on in the drive.

With Texas on deck, the Vols will be able to continue to create disruptions at every level of the field by taking advantage of an offense that ranks well below league average in havoc allowed. The Longhorns' injuries across the offensive line will also allow Tennessee to generate pressure at a higher rate, lowering the quality of Manning’s throws.

Texas has also underwhelmed on the ground this season, residing in the bottom half of the board in rush success rate. Barring a sudden turnaround, the Vols will be able to stretch out the second level of the defense and narrow the width of Manning’s passing lanes.

On the other side of the field, negative regression is looming large over Brandon in his first matchup against a high-quality defense, battling it out against a group that excels at keeping opponents in front of the sticks per top-50 marks in PPA and explosiveness. Brandon has also been able to operate in a clean pocket up to this point, potentially leading to an increase in the amount of havoc in his throws while scrambling away from the Longhorns' pressure.

Best Player Prop Bet For Texas vs. Tennessee

Arch Manning - Longest Completion u44.5 Yards (-115, bet365)

The pressure the Vols will be able to create in the interior will also give Manning less time to go through his progressions, forcing him to either make a play with his legs or throw into a clogged lane. Either result will plummet his chances of generating an explosive play through the air, especially with the Vols anchoring the LBs in coverage to help bring down the pass catcher at the point of contact.

When forced to get the ball out of his hands shortly after the snap, the Longhorns WRs will also have less time in the open field to create space, forcing them to fight off contact while trying to haul in a contested catch. This will lead to minimal gains with each reception, keeping Manning under the total of 44.5 on his longest completion prop.

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