š KEY Week 2 Sheeshes and Utilization
Tuesday mornings after a fantasy win are pretty, pretty, pretty greatā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Mojo Fantasy:
Bad Monday Night Football is better than no Monday Night Football
Sheesh Report: Brock Purdy, Jaguars WRs, MORE
Week 3 Utilization Report: The Rams offense is a fantasy frigginā goldmine
QUICK HITTER: Early Week 3 Rankings Preview
Week 3 Waiver Wire: Picks with FAAB recommendations
Itās 9/19. Take it away, Ian Hartitzā¦
America witnessed an absolutely brutal Monday night football doubleheader last evening.
This play about sums up the entire night.
Fumbles everywhere!
šŗ: #CLEvsPIT on ABC
š±: Stream on #NFLPlusbit.ly/3RoVkFe
Sadly, there wasnāt just bad football during the Saints and Steelers respective 20-17 and 26-22 wins: The injury Gods struck again in a MAJOR way.
š¢ Browns RB Nick Chubb (knee) is done for the season
The longtime stud RB was making some of his usual magic happen early against the Steelers before suffering an absolutely brutal knee injury shortly into the second quarter. Head coach Kevin Stefanski has already confirmed Chubb will miss the rest of the season.
Prayers up for Chubb, anyoneās idea of one of the gameās very best players regardless of position.
Backup RB Jerome Ford made the most out of his opportunities in the aftermath, scoring an octopus (TD AND the two-point conversion), ripping off an electric 69-yard run (nice), and generally just looking great on his way to racking up 131 total yards while working as the teamās featured back.
It'd make sense if former Patriots RB Pierre Strong Jr. ā or a future free agent signing ā turns this into a bit more of a committee after the team gets a chance to regroup; just realize for now Ford is deserving of the utmost waiver wire treatment thanks to his potential to suddenly seize a legit three-down role out of thin air.
What is the limit of FAAB you should bid on Ford?
Jerome Ford fantasy football FAAB recommendation
Brutal evening at the office, but as always: All we can do is watch the film and get better. Moving on.
Week 2 has come and gone. 16 NFL games brought joy, laughs and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful. Today, Ian focuses on the latter sadness and breaks down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory.
Presenting: The Sheesh Report, recapping all the near misses, close calls and general fantasy heartbreak from the last week of action. Starting with the top āSheeshā moments from Week 2ā¦
š¬ 3. Brock Purdy has had better days
The 49ers have scored 33, 35, 21, 37, 37, 38, 41, 19, 30 and most recently 30 points in Purdyās non-injured 10 career extended appearances
Mr. Relevant has yet to lose a start in which he didnāt immediately suffer a brutal elbow injury, and heās even accounted for multiple TDs in all but two of those games along the way.
And yet, Purdy did indeed sheesh two potential chunk TDs during the 49ersā Week 2 win over the Rams. Both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were more than open enough to at least pick up a big gain, and more likely put six additional points on the board.
Brock Purdy sheesh x2
It would have been a lot cooler if Purdy made those throws, but the second-year QB has still thrown the ball downfield well as a whole this season. Donāt fret, 49ers fans: You seem to be in very good hands.
š 2. Jaguars were oh so close, yet oh so far away
Trevor Lawrence and company might have won Sundayās matchup against the Chiefs by three scores if the teams decided to play with one-foot-inbounds college rules.
Overall, there were four different instances of Jaguars WRs coming down with the football in the end zone, but on each occasion, they werenāt able to get both feet down inbounds.
Trevor Lawrence with *4* potential TDs on Sunday where the ball was caught, but WR was unable to get two feet down inbounds
(two came on the same drive, but still sheeshy, you know what I mean?)
These misses arenāt squarely on T-Law, Zay Jones, or Calvin Ridley. Rather, itās a combination of the execution just not quite being good enough to score six points against a Chiefs defense that made life difficult all afternoon.
Great job by the Chiefs secondary, but Sunday was objectively a sheeshy afternoon for Jaguars fantasy managers.
Read on for the biggest Sheesh of Week 2 and MUCH more
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Player usage might just be one piece of the fantasy football puzzle, but make no mistake about it: Utilization is the biggest piece out there.
Luckily for you, Fantasy Life Director of Analytics and all-around baller Dwain McFarland has you covered with the absolute biggest usage takeaways from Week 1.
š 1. The Rams offense is a fantasy frigginā goldmine.
There isnāt a bigger story in fantasy than what is happening in Los Angeles. Three players who went undrafted in most fantasy leagues are taking the NFL by storm.
Puka Nacua is the WR2
Kyren Williams is the RB2
Tutu Atwell is the WR15
Bursting onto the scene against the Seahawks was impressive, but delivering big results in Week 2 against the 49ers tells us this team is for real.
Yes, teams will adjust to the Rams' attack, but all three players deserve significant upgrades in their rest-of-season outlook.
Puka Nacua: on pace for 2,261 yards
Tutu Atwell: on pace for 1,666 yards
Kyren Williams: on pace for 34 touchdowns
Matthew Stafford: on pace for 5,448 passing yards
sheesh š°
š WR Puka Nacua
Nacuaās 39% target share is the highest in the NFL after two weeks. Over the last 10 years, the WRs who reached a 37% or higher target share over the first two weeks have faired well for the season.
2017: DeAndre Hopkins (48%) ā WR2 (points per game)
2013: Vincent Jackson (45%) ā WR17
2017: Jarvis Landry (44%) ā WR4
2018: Julio Jones (42%) ā WR4
2014: Jordy Nelson (41%) ā WR4
2013: DeSean Jackson (39%) ā WR12
2014: Andre Johnson (39%) ā WR28
2021: Cooper Kupp (38%) ā WR1
2022: Cooper Kupp (38%) ā WR1
2018: Michael Thomas (38%) ā WR6
2021: Deebo Samuel (38%) ā WR3
2019: Michael Thomas (37%) ā WR1
Those are some big-time names, but that is the world we live in, and we must adjust quickly.
Outlook: Nacua upgrades to a low-end WR1 until Kupp returns. Upon Kuppās return, if Nacua is still going strong, he will drop into the WR2 range, and we will reevaluate.
š„ RB Kyren Williams
Williams had a strong showing in Week 1 with a top-eight finish on 18 points, but he ceded much of the ground game to Cam Akers, who handled 56% of the attempts.
However, in Week 2, Akers was a healthy scratch, opening the door for a more prominent role for Williams.
Williams bogarted 78% of the rushing attempts and registered an 80% route participation on his way to an electric 28 points. With Akers on the trade block, we shouldnāt look at Williamsā performances as short-lived ā this utilization has staying power.
Since 2012, running backs that handled at least 60% of attempts along with a 65%-plus route participation have SMASHED, averaging 21.9 points per game. The average finish for the group was RB5.
Williams is only 194 pounds, so we could see the team try to work in another back, but the Rams could also lean into the passing game and play to Williamsā strengths in that facet of the game. We will slightly temper expectations for now, but the second-year RB is still worthy of a significant move up the rest-of-season ranks.
Outlook: Williams upgrades to mid-range RB2 status. He is available in 38% of leagues and should be your No. 1 priority if there. In FAAB leagues, he is worth 90%-plus.
šØ WR Tutu Atwell
The former Round 2 NFL Draft selection is enjoying a breakout campaign in his third season, but itās going a little under the radar due to the success of Nacua and Williams.
Last season, he showed signs of life at the end of 2022 and is picking up where he left off with a WR3-worthy 19% target share and a WR2-worthy 29% air yards share.
Atwell handles more intermediate and deep route duties (12.9 aDOT), while Nacua patrols the underneath and intermediate zones. When Kupp returns, we could see Atwell displace Van Jefferson as the deep threat.
Outlook: Atwell upgrades to a mid-range WR3 until Kupp returns. He will be a WR4 with spike-week upside if he claims Jeffersonās role with Kupp back in the lineup.
šŖ QB Matthew Stafford
Stafford is only rostered in 35% of Yahoo! leagues and is also available in most high-stakes formats. While he hasnāt exploded in the box score yet, the improved weapons provide an upside we didnāt realize existed for the 2023 season.
His passing yardage totals of 340 and 307 yards are solid, and the TDs could eventually flow ā especially when Kupp returns. With four quality weapons and a shaky defense, Stafford could offer a similar upside to Kirk Cousins, who is currently the QB1 in fantasy land.
Stafford was the QB5 overall with 20.4 points per game in 2021 and could make sense for fantasy teams with injured QBs like Joe Burrow and Anthony Richardson.
Outlook: Stafford upgrades to mid-range QB2 status and offers QB1 upside.
More Utilization Takeaways from Week 2!
š The Injury Gods showed no mercy in Week 2. How to react to every injury ahead of Week 3.
š° The rich get richer. I GUESS heās earned it.
š· The Giantsā stud RB is going to miss a bit of time with an ankle injury. Glass half full: This update could be worse.
š Arizona will be without arguably their only true star player for at least four games. Can we invent a cure for hamstring injuries already?
š Your favorite fantasy analystās favorite mid-round WR lands on IR. Iām hurt dog, donāt ask me if Iām okay.
š„ Fantasyās reigning, defending, undisputed RB1 might be out a bit longer. Injuries suck, man.
š This re-aggravation has fantasy managers aggravated. The betting lines are accordingly on the move.
š Jahmyr Gibbs workhorse role incoming? Weāre telling you thereās a chance.
š¤ Another RB is on the trade block. Is there seriously a market for this dude?
š¤¬ Imagine having one of the NFLās very best running QBs ā and not having him run! Bold move, Cotton.
Itās time to churn our rosters against after another action-packed weekend.
However, based on social media, some of you donāt have any FAAB left to make adds this week. And itās not like you were wrong to do it. Puka Nacuaās receptions through two games made history. But injuries will sideline multiple starters after Sunday. And weāve still got a few months where weāll need to keep our rosters fresh.
So, Chris is here to review some of the guys who were hurt in Week 2 and then get to who benefits as we hunt for waiver wire targets for Week 3.
Additionally, be sure to check out our Waiver Wire Tool for an in-depth analysis of the best waiver claims each week. From FAAB%, to average bids, to league availability, the best waiver tool is one click away.
š¶ Jerome Ford, RB - Browns
First and foremost, letās pour one out for Nick Chubb. For one of the (if not the) best rushers in the league, this is a huge blow to the game. Hope to see him back next season.
Jerome Ford instantly vaults into the RB2 conversation with Chubb out for the season. Ford saw 14 of the 16 RB carries throughout the remainder of the game and also ran a route on 41.2% of Deshaun Watsonās dropbacks.
Itās a small sample, but Chubb only had a 19.0% route rate through his six quarters of play.
The Browns are heavily reliant on their running game (with or without Chubb) as Watson continues to flounder under center. And surprisingly, after losing Chubb, they ran more!
Cleveland had a +0.6% PROE through the first quarter (admittedly, a small sample). But in the second half, with the game on the line, it dropped to -2.5%. Rumors of a Kareem Hunt return or a big FA signing will come up, but get aggressive on the waiver wire as Ford has earned his shot to take over the backfield.
Budget: 50%+ FAAB
š§ Jayden Reed, WR - Packers
With Christian Watson out in Week 1, Jayden Reed had a modest target share of 18.5%. But he led the team in air yards (33.8%). Watson had to sit against, and we saw Reedās connection with Jordan Love continue to grow.
Reed had more targets per route run (0.44) than Puka Nacua (0.39), CeeDee Lamb (0.35), and Justin Jefferson (0.28). His 32% target share in Week 2 ranked ninth amongst all WRs, and he hoarded half of Loveās looks when Green Bay got into the red zone.
Watson may return in Week 3, but Reedās been efficient (2.4 YPRR) and has more YAC per reception than Deebo Samuel.
Reed is a weekly FLEX option until we see something different from the Packersā offense.
Budget: (15-20% FAAB)
š Josh Reynolds, WR - Lions
We know Josh Reynoldsā game. Heās had an aDOT over 13 yards since he came to Detroit and primarily runs his routes on the perimeter.
Simply put, Reynolds has been a volatile option. But this yearās been slightly different.
Reynolds has led Detroitās passing game in air yards in back-to-back weeks. Thatās no surprise, given his traditional on-field deployment, but he also has a 49.1% slot rate.
His 0.22 TPRR isnāt far behind Amon-Ra St. Brownās (0.25). Surprisingly, Reynolds has the most targets in obvious passing situations (7). And, most importantly, heās the only other WR with multiple red-zone looks.
Marvin Jones didnāt see a pass thrown his way, and Kalif Raymondās role as the āgadget guyā remains solidified. And with St. Brown managing an injury, Reynolds could be a low-end WR3 in the right matchup. (5-10% FAAB)
MUCH more waiver wire goodness right here!
When my wife asks me how many fantasy leagues Iām inā¦.
