So how about that National Championship game…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:
- Key injury updates ahead of Super Wild Card Weekend
- Sheesh Awards: MV-Sheesh
- Black Monday coaching victims
- Utilization Report: “Why be a king, when you can be a Sun God.”
- It’s 1/9. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Monday featured all sorts of chaos in the NFL world with typical injury updates being joined by annual Black Monday madness in the coaching world.
Seeing as how none of the playoff teams fired their coaches (that would be a wild move), we’ll focus on the former information dump ahead of Super Wild Card Weekend.
🦅 Jalen Hurts’ finger hurts
But at least it’s not fractured.
Here's to hoping the Eagles don't ask him to pull landscaping duty ahead of their Monday night matchup against the Buccaneers — especially with WR A.J. Brown (knee) also banged up, even if his injury isn’t believed to be serious.
Philly boasts the second-worst season-long point differential (+5) of any playoff team and has lost five of their last six games after a blistering 10-1 start. It’s safe to say Hurts and company could use some goodwill from the Injury Gods.
🐬 The Dolphins are getting healthier
Head coach Mike McDaniel expressed optimism surrounding both WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) and RB Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) ahead of the team’s Saturday night matchup against the Chiefs.
It’s safe to say the Dolphins will need all hands on deck to conquer the league’s second-ranked scoring defense without the benefit of sunny Miami weather.
🐃 Gabe Davis is hurt, not injured
Specifically, he's dealing with a PCL sprain that is "not considered major", per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
While Davis doesn't always make the world's biggest impact (Read: He's registered six goose eggs in his last nine games), no Bills skill-position player was on the field more this season.
Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield will fill out three-WR sets should Davis be sidelined for Sunday’s matchup against the Steelers based on their usage in Week 18.
Of course, Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid would benefit the most from Davis’ absence in terms of pure target volume.
🦁 The knee-cap biters got some hurt knees
Lions head coach Dan Campbell had a trio of updates surrounding key passing game contributors:
- TE Sam Laporta (knee) has an outside chance of playing and they are talking about “days not weeks.”
- WR Kalif Raymond (knee) is “farther away” from returning than LaPorta.
- WR Jameson Williams (ankle) “should” be good to go for Sunday.
Look for James Mitchell and Brock Wright to form a fairly evenly split two-TE committee should LaPorta be sidelined, while Williams will presumably return to starting three-WR sets alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds.
And just like that: The 2023-24 NFL regular season is over. What better way to celebrate the occasion than by reminiscing on the most tilting moments from the last 18 weeks of action?
Presenting: Fantasy Life’s 2023-24 Sheesh Awards. Call them the “Sheeshies” if you like. Either way: Ian is here to remind you of all the horrific beyond-the-box-score near-miss moments from the last 18 weeks of action.
🏆 Top Five Sheesh Moments of the Year
5️⃣ Josh Allen and Gabe Davis mess up game-winning TD
The Bills and Eagles engaged in an entertaining Week 12 battle that failed to crown a winner after 60 minutes of action. The first possession of overtime would go to Josh Allen and company, and things were looking good as they faced a 3rd and 6 deep in Eagles territory.
Good news: Davis broke wide open deep for a potential 22-yard walk-off score.
Bad news: Allen was not on the same page as his intended target, resulting in an incomplete pass. You know the sheesh was bad when it elicits reactions like this.
The Bills settled for a field goal, and Jalen Hurts scored the walk-off TD a few minutes later. Say it with me Bills fans: Sheesh.
4️⃣ Amari Cooper called out of bounds … even though he wasn’t
A well-placed sideline pass from Deshaun Watson landed right in Cooper’s bread basket, only for the 29-year-old veteran to display some crafty footwork to stay inbounds and seemingly set himself up for a 65-yard TD.
One problem: The referees blew the whistle at the initial catch point, limiting Cooper to a 25-yard gain instead of far more.
Usually, the officials mess this sort of thing up on strip sacks that look like incompletions – this instance is completely inexcusable and made all the more brutal by the fact the official was STANDING RIGHT THERE.
It wasn’t a guarantee that Cooper would have scored, although he sure seemed to have the Titans’ last line of defense on absolute skates on his way to picking up an additional chunk of YAC.
Sadly, sometimes the best thing any of us can do in a situation like this is take a deep breath, take a long look in the mirror, and mutter one word: Sheesh.
🥉 MV-Sheesh
The Eagles managed to take a 21-17 lead over the Chiefs with just 6:20 remaining in the 4th quarter during their Week 11 matchup. A pair of punts wound up giving Patrick Mahomes and company the ball with 91 yards to go and just 2:49 remaining on the clock.
A few completions and a roughing the passer penalty later and the Chiefs were in business at midfield. The miraculous last-minute drive suddenly looked ready to culminate in a game-winning TD when Mahomes found a wide-open Marquez Valdes-Scantling deep down the middle … only for the often-criticized drop merchant to let the potential score go right off his hands.
Sadly, this wasn’t even the worst late-game sheesh from the Chiefs in 2023.
🥈 Darnell Mooney has a Hail Mary in his hands … kicks it to the Browns
I’m not sure if any additional words can do this one justice: Sheesh.
🥇 Kadarius Toney doesn’t line up right, nullifies the coolest TD ever
This ridiculously spectacular unplanned mid-play lateral from Travis Kelce to Toney seemingly gave the Chiefs the lead over the Bills with just 1:12 remaining on the clock.
But not so fast my friend: Toney rather clearly lined up offsides. Initial uproar from head coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs was replaced by a Monday admittance that Toney never checked with the official … although it kind of looked like he briefly did?
Ultimately, Toney was indeed lined up off-sides – and the officials accordingly nullified one of the coolest TDs the game has ever seen. Patrick Mahomes didn’t exactly take it well, telling Josh Allen after the game it was the, “Worst f****** call I've ever seen."
The moment seemed like the sheesh of the year when it happened, and now here we are. Congrats aren’t exactly in order … so I guess there’s only one thing left to say: Sheesh.
Honorable mention to these sheeshes for also making fantasy managers and anytime TD bettors alike angry this season. There were also a few sheesh-filled games from the last four months of action that deserve our attention.
All of the biggest “Sheesh!” moments from 2023
🔥 Punishment Has Never Tasted So Good…
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🪓 There were plenty of defensive shakeups around the league on “Black Monday.” Especially in Jacksonville and New York.
😂 The Buffalo Wild Wings Punishment Generator strikes again. Looks like inflation got to these lemonade prices…
📺 Recapping everything you need from an action-packed Week 18. Who else but Ian and Dwain?
📊 Kickoff times, Super Bowl odds, and more. Everything you need to know for the 2024 playoffs.
😮 Jon Gruden might return to the NFL? You’ll never guess what team.
🧀 Now that’s a big-time Packers fan. Kinda looks like Jaire Alexander.
🏀 New hire to help run the Washington front office. Wasn’t expecting that name.
🗣️ Jimmy Graham has some kind words for Jameis Winston. Not so kind words for the Falcons.
👋 Let’s just say the fantasy football community won’t miss Arthur Smith. Pete says his goodbyes.
🤓 Sometimes the good simply outweighs the bad. The Josh Allen experience.
Just because the fantasy football regular season is over doesn’t mean player usage will stop changing any time soon. Lucky for you, a scholar, Professor Dwain McFarland has his PHD in Utilization — and today he’s here to spread the good word ahead of the Wild Card Round
🏃 The Bills are letting Josh Allen run with the season on the line
Allen finished the season with 13% of the Bills designed rushing attempts – well below his three-year average of 18%. However, over the last two games, we have seen vintage Allen with 30% of the rushing attempts plus a 9% scramble rate.
Altogether, Allen has compiled 27 rushing attempts over the last two games, fueling 111 yards on the ground. The fifth-year QB didn’t manage a rushing TD in Week 18, but he has handled eight of the Bills' 13 totes inside the five-yard line over the last four games, punching in five scores.
Maybe no one can 100% replicate the success of the tush push, but Buffalo has the closest thing going with Allen. The 6’5” 237-pound QB is a good bet to score a rushing TD each week with 15 on the season.
It was also nice to see the Bills passing attack showing signs of life, tying their season-high in yardage with 359 yards. When Allen is at his best, he is a threat to throw for 300-plus yards with multiple TDs and add 50 yards and a score on the ground.
Outlook: Allen is a high-end QB1 and could be peaking just in time for the NFL Playoffs.
👀 Devin Singletary is dominating the Texans’ rushing workload
Singletary delivered a respectable 13.5 fantasy points in Week 18, but his underlying utilization was even more substantial. The fifth-year veteran posted season highs in snaps (86%) and rushing attempt share (100%). Since Week 14, Singletary has been the undisputed No. 1 in Houston, garnering 74% of the attempts on a 65% snap share.
Dare Ogunbowale has thwarted utilization in the passing game, but Singletary’s 61% route participation and 100% snap rate in the two-minute offense in Week 18 was a positive. Despite the passing game constraints, Singletary’s comp group averaged 14.7 points with an RB13 finish based on the last 12 seasons of data.
Outlook: Singletary UPGRADES to high-end RB2 territory and offers RB1 upside in friendly game scripts.
🌞 Amon-Ra St. Brown enters the playoffs on a heater.
Since registering a season-low 5.1 fantasy points in Week 14, the Sun God has been on fire, averaging 25.5. Over that stretch, ARSB has four top-eight finishes on the back of a 30% target share and 36% air yards share.
The Lions will face the Rams on Super Wildcard Weekend without the help of Sam LaPorta, who is expected to miss time due to a knee injury – opening the door for an even more prominent role for St. Brown. While Jahmyr Gibbs has been a potent weapon out of the backfield (21% TPRR), the Lions have struggled to find another target-earner at WR or TE.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 21% TPRR, 12% target share
- Kalif Raymond: 18% TPRR, 8% target share
- Jameson Williams: 17% TPRR, 10% target share
- Donovan Peoples-Jones: 15% TPRR, 3% target share
- Brock Wright: 14% TPRR, 3% target share
- David Montgomery: 13% TPRR, 4% target share
- Josh Reynolds: 13% TPRR, 11% target share
- James Mitchell: 6% TPRR, 1% target share
Outlook: St. Brown UPGRADES to high-end WR1 status.
More upgrades and downgrades ahead of Super Wild Card Weekend
