2023 Team Preview: Houston Texans
Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Houston Texans, looking at key questions like:
- Can C.J. Stroud become the latest rookie QB to put up big-time fantasy numbers?
- Will Dameon Pierce be leaned upon as a bell-cow RB under a new coaching staff?
- Which Texans WR is the one to target for fantasy with all of them having dirt-cheat ADPs?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Texans will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.
The Texans blew up their coaching staff for the second straight offseason. Head coach Lovie Smith and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton are out and have been replaced by ex-49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and ex-49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik, respectively.
As is the case with most Kyle Shanahan disciples, it’s tough to know just how much, if any, say Slowik has had in the offense over the years. Still, it’d make sense if he takes a page out of his mentor’s playbook and doesn’t exactly vie for the league lead in pass attempts based on the 49ers’ run-first attitude over the years:
- 2022: -4.4% pass rate over expected (22nd)
- 2021: -6.5% (31st)
- 2020: -4.7% (27th)
- 2019: -5.8% (29th)
- 2018: -3% (25th)
- 2017: -0.6% (13th)
San Francisco's pace in neutral situations has ranked as high as fifth and as low as 31st over the years. If Houston's offense in 2023 looks similar, then there may not be enough passing volume or efficiency to enable more than one Texans pass-catcher to be fantasy-relevant.
Additionally, the Texans have made plenty of changes to their roster since the start of free agency in March. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Houston in some way, shape or form this offseason:
- QB: Backups Jeff Driskel and Kyle Allen signed with the Cardinals and Bills, respectively. Houston replaced them with veteran journeyman Case Keenum on a two-year, $6.25 million deal.
- RB: Backups Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman remain unrestricted free agents. Instead, the Texans signed former Bill Devin Singletary to a one-year, $2.75 million contract ($2.5 million guaranteed) and Mike Boone to a two-year, $3.1 million deal for depth ($300,000 guaranteed).
- WR: Houston traded Brandin Cooks to the Cowboys, and Chris Moore and Phillip Dorsett left for the Titans and Raiders in free agency, respectively. Replacing them are Robert Woods on a two-year, $15.25 million deal ($10 million guaranteed), Noah Brown on a one-year, $2.6 million deal, and Steven Sims on a one-year, $1.5 million deal.
- TE: O.J. Howard departed for the Raiders, and Jordan Akins left for the Browns. Instead, the Texans signed longtime Cowboy Dalton Schultz to a one-year, $6.25 million contract ($6 million guaranteed) and blocking TE Andrew Beck to a two-year, $6.25 million deal.
In the NFL Draft, Houston drafted Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud second overall after much pre-draft speculation. They also added Houston WR Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (3.69) and Iowa State WR Xavier Hutchinson (6.205) in the later rounds. While Hutchinson does have some intriguing physical traits, the history of draft capital tells us not to expect much fantasy production from Day 3 picks.
QBs
- C.J. Stroud (Ian’s QB25)
- Davis Mills (QB64)
Seven rookie QBs have posted top-12 fantasy QB seasons since 2012. There are two key commonalities among them.
The first is that all of the rookie QBs other than Justin Herbert started immediately in Week 1. The other is that other than Herbert, they had all already demonstrated a solid rushing floor in college. Here are the per-game rushing yardage totals of those seven QBs in college:
- Cam Newton: 79.3
- Robert Griffin III: 55.0
- Dak Prescott: 51.5
- Kyler Murray: 51.0
- Russell Wilson: 28.4
- Andrew Luck: 25.2
- Justin Herbert: 13.0
Note that Herbert’s elite 9.69 relative athletic score painted the picture of someone capable of achieving more on the ground at the next level despite his collegiate rushing production.
While Stroud’s RAS and athletic testing scores aren’t known, he did occasionally flash on the ground. Whether it was the rainy Northwestern game, big-time scrambles against Georgia, or the very first TD of his career, Stroud can make defenses pay with his legs when left unaccounted for.
Additionally, Stroud had more rushing yards in his first game and final game in college (82 rushing yards) than the other 24 games he played in between (54 total rushing yards). He cleared 15 rushing yards in just three of his 26 college games. In fact, Stroud has literally said himself that his job is to throw the ball, not run:
“Nah, not at all. If my job was to run the ball, I’d be a running back or something. … I throw the ball for a living. Sometimes, of course, it might look obvious when you throw the ball and everybody runs to the ball, ‘Oh, he should have ran it.’ But I feel like I do my job when my number’s called.”
Dec 31, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks to pass the ball against during the third quarter of the 2022 Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Stroud outlined his skillset rather perfectly. He can do the deed and pick up yards on the ground when his number is called, but don’t expect him to make a habit of taking off and scrambling in lieu of doing everything in his power to throw the ball first.
My comp for Stroud is Jared Goff with an added theoretical ability to run. Dane Brugler of The Athletic summarized Stroud in his ever-excellent draft guide, “The Beast”:
“A two-year starter at Ohio State, Stroud was a record-setting passer for the Buckeyes in head coach Ryan Day’s multiple spread offense. While leading the FBS in touchdown passes (41) in 2022, Stroud broke Drew Brees’ Big Ten record for the most touchdowns in a two-year span and finished with 17 Ohio State records (second in school history with 8,123 career passing yards).
Structurally sound, Stroud throws with patience and poise and he can make all the throws. Though he appears comfortable on plays designed to move his launch point, his improvisation skills when things break down are a work in progress (his outstanding performance on the 2022 Georgia tape raises the level of optimism).
Overall, Stroud must become more comfortable embracing his athleticism and escapability, but he is an outstanding rhythm passer with touch, pacing and ball-speed control to carve up the defense. His passing skills give him an encouraging floor as an NFL starter and his development as a creator will ultimately determine his NFL ceiling.”
Maybe Stroud will be forced to take off more often while attempting to function behind a Texans offensive line that ranked just 26th last year per Pro Football Focus (PFF), but he has a long way to go before we can consistently project him for rushing production in fantasy. The lack of rushing is enough for me to drop Stroud in my rankings to a borderline QB2 alongside guys like Bryce Young and Kenny Pickett.
It’s a shame that Stroud's excellent ball-placement ability might be wasted throwing to arguably the single-worst group of pass-catchers in the NFL. Like many young, highly-drafted QBs, Stroud could experience some environment-induced bumps while waiting for the talent around him to improve. He’s only a realistic fantasy option in best ball and superflex formats that require multiple players at the position. And even then…meh.
RBs
- Dameon Pierce (Ian’s RB21)
- Devin Singletary (RB53)
Pierce, for lack of a better word, is good. Like, really good. This is elite mixtape material right here.
Only 2014 Marshawn Lynch has forced a higher rate of missed tackles per touch over the past 10 years than Pierce did as a rookie last season. Pierce's elusiveness and ability to force missed tackles helped him rack up 1,104 total yards and five total TDs in 13 games, and he was pretty much the only thing worth smiling about in the entire Texans organization in 2022.
There's just one problem.
Pierce was still just the RB21 in PPR points per game (PPG) despite having put forward as good of an effort on the ground as anyone could have possibly hoped. His lackluster fantasy production was due to both playing on a mediocre scoring offense and his coaching staff insisting on keeping Rex Burkhead or Dare Ogunbowale involved on passing downs.
Even with the coaching changes this offseason, it's not necessarily a given that Pierce's role in the passing game will grow, particularly after Houston signed Singletary in free agency. Last season, Singletary ranked 12th among 60 qualifying RBs in PFF's pass-blocking metric while Pierce graded out as the sixth-worst pass-blocking RB.
Singletary didn’t receive huge money to suggest that he'll lead the Texans' backfield in 2023, but his $2.5 million guaranteed does indicate that Houston has a role in mind for him as the 1B in this backfield alongside Pierce. The rookie saw a fairly large workload in 2022, especially on early downs, but Singletary could even cut into that.
While I don't hate Pierce, his archetype of an early-down grinder in a bad offense isn’t something I love chasing considering his current ADP in the fifth to sixth round of drafts. I haven’t gone out of my way for Pierce in drafts this offseason because of his potential lack of pass-down work, especially when guys like Rachaad White and James Conner arguably offer better odds of seeing a true three-down role and are going nearly two rounds later.
Meanwhile, Singletary's ADP is outside of the top-150 overall, and he might be one of the last RBs available with some semblance of upside. Singletary might just be one injury away from possessing an even more fantasy-friendly role than what Pierce saw last year. Singletary is definitely worth a look that late, especially in zero-RB builds. That said, I prefer Jerome Ford and Tyjae Spears as upside dart throws going even later in drafts.
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WRs
- Tank Dell (Ian’s WR69)
- Nico Collins (WR77)
- John Metchie (WR89)
- Robert Woods (WR97)
- Xavier Hutchinson (WR114)
- Noah Brown (WR127)
Dell has garnered some early steam as the Texans' potential No. 1 WR thanks to the fact that Stroud told the team to draft him in the first place. Here's Dane Brugler’s breakdown on Dell from his draft guide, “The Beast”:
“A three-year starter at Houston, Dell was an inside/outside receiver in Dana Holgorsen’s version of the Air Raid offense and added punt return duties as a senior. After leading the FBS in receiving yards (1,398) and touchdown grabs (17) in 2022, he leaves as one of the most prolific receivers in school history, finishing his career No. 3 in touchdowns catches (32), No. 4 in receptions (222) and No. 6 in receiving yards (3,155).
A finely tuned athlete, Dell has blur speed along with the twitchy ease of movement and controlled burst to create separation in one-on-one matchups. Although he is a smallish target and lacks tackle-breaking strength, he can run circles around defenders and plays with the competitive urgency of a much bigger player.
Overall, Dell’s diminutive size and below-average strength won’t be a fit for everyone, but he has quick hands and elite start-stop acceleration to create chunk plays short, intermediate and deep. He projects as a dynamic No. 3 or 4 wide receiver for an NFL offense while also handling punt return duties.”
As ironically fun as it is for a 5’8, 165 lb. WR to be nicknamed “Tank”, he does profile well as the offense’s best WR for the starting slot role. Still, this Houston WR room remains unsettled and will be one to monitor throughout training camp and the preseason.
Nico Collins worked as the clear-cut No. 2 WR behind Cooks over the last couple of seasons. Although his 33-446-1 and 37-481-2 receiving lines in 2021 and 2022, respectively, haven’t been anything to write home about, Collins's 1.68 yards per route run (YPRR) and 72.0 PFF receiving grade were both above average last season.
Of all the Houston WRs, John Metchie has the most draft capital, as he was selected with the 44th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. He’s now fully recovered from acute promyelocytic leukemia, although Metchie did miss OTAs due to a hamstring injury, and he's still returning from an ACL tear in 2021.
The veteran, Robert Woods, could still play a factor as well. He received a pretty decent two-year deal for someone who struggled to do anything with the Titans last year, as he averaged career-worst efficiency marks across the board. Woods is still a bad-ass blocker and will provide veteran leadership to the room, but his best fantasy days are likely in the rear-view mirror.
Guys like Xavier Hutchinson, Noah Brown, Steven Sims, and Amari Rodgers are also there, but they are mostly off the fantasy radar. This Texans WR room was easily one of the least-productive in the league in 2022 even with Cooks there, and it's unlikely to be much better in 2023 with Cooks gone.
I’m fine with throwing late-round darts at all parties involved among the Houston WRs if only because all of their ADPs are dirt cheap and outside of the top-150 overall picks.
Still, don’t go out of your way to draft any Texans WRs stuck in one of the league’s least-productive passing attacks. This could ultimately be just a rotation where all these WRs split snaps and disappoint in fantasy.
TEs
- Dalton Schultz (Ian’s TE17)
- Brevin Jordan (TE64)
Schultz didn’t exactly get the sort of big-money deal that he was perhaps hoping for after racking up 17 TDs over the past three seasons. But despite his prowess for finding the end zone, Schultz's strong fantasy production hasn't necessarily been backed up by the same level of underlying efficiency.
Over the last two years, Schultz has ranked 14th in YPRR and 19th in the percentage of routes to be considered open or wide open by PFF among TEs. He's especially struggled when looking at Schultz's per-game receiving splits with and without Dak Prescott under center:
- With Prescott (33 games): 4.5 receptions for 47.9 yards and 0.45 TDs
- Without Prescott (15 games): 3.2 receptions for 27.9 yards and 0.13 TDs
In fact, Schultz has eclipsed 50 receiving yards in just two of his 15 games without Prescott since 2020. Schultz also scored just two TDs in those 15 games without Prescott compared to 15 TDs in 33 games with Prescott over the same span. Not great!
Of course, volume has a way of curing middling efficiency, and absolutely nobody has more available targets or air yards than the Texans heading into the 2023 season, so Schultz is one of very few TEs with a realistic opportunity to lead his team in targets this coming year.
That's not guaranteed, but it seems very doable considering the lack of talent at WR for Houston, as prefaced above. Schultz will need to see target volume to produce in fantasy in 2023 since his scoring efficiency will almost assuredly drop going from Prescott to a rookie QB in Stroud.
Ultimately, Schultz isn't a TE worth going out of your way to get in the early double-digit rounds of drafts, and I struggle to find a single good reason to draft him two or more rounds ahead of guys like Gerald Everett, Irv Smith, and Juwan Johnson, all of whom are also expected to be starting TEs on significantly better passing attacks.
2023 Win Total: 6.5
- -130 on the under
The 2022 Texans were surprisingly competent down the stretch last season. Houston lost two close one-score games to Dallas and Kansas City in Weeks 14 and 15, even managing to force overtime against the Chiefs. The Texans also finished the season strong by winning two of their final three games last year.
Of course, Houston was still the third-worst team in the NFL in terms of point differential in 2022. Overall, the Colts (-138), Bears (-137), Texans (-131), and Cardinals (-109) were the only four teams to post a negative triple-digit point differential last season.
Maybe the new coaching staff can revive this franchise in a hurry, but the Texans have finished under six wins in four of the last five seasons. Give me under 6.5 wins for a franchise that still looks a lot like one of the league’s very worst squads.
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