2023 Team Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, looking at key questions like:
- Could Baker Mayfield refind his second-half 2018 or 2020 form?
- Is Rachaad White the cheapest workhorse RB in fantasy football?
- Are Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this year’s D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Buccaneers will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.
Head coach Todd Bowles is back for his second season leading the Buccaneers after Bruce Arians transitioned into a front-office role following the team’s 2021 campaign. While defensive coordinators Larry Foote and Kacy Rodgers are back by Bowles’ side, offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has been replaced by Dave Canales after disappointing with the league’s 25th-ranked scoring offense last season.
This will be Canales’ first year as a pure offensive coordinator. However, he did work as the Seahawks’ passing game coordinator in 2020 and 2021. And, more recently, he impressed as Geno Smith’s QB coach in 2022.
It’s tough to discern exactly how much pull Canales had with Seattle’s overall offensive direction over the past three seasons, but don’t be surprised if he lets his QB cook even in neutral game script situations while moving at a quick pace.
- 2022: +1.5% pass rate over expected (No. 8); 30.85 seconds per play in neutral situations (No. 13)
- 2021: -2% (No. 18); 30.18 (No. 8)
- 2020: +6.3% (No. 4); 30.68 (No. 22)
Additionally, the Buccaneers have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have either joined or left Tampa Bay in some way, shape or form this offseason:
- QB: Tom Brady (allegedly) retired, while backup signal-caller Blaine Gabbert took his talents to Kansas City. This led to the Bucs signing Baker Mayfield (1-year, $4M) as their presumed starter, and former Rams backup John Wolford (1-year, $1.01M) is also in the mix.
- RB: Three-year starter Leonard Fournette remains an unrestricted free agent, while Giovani Bernard retired. The Bucs made a small addition in response by signing former Cardinals, Dolphins and Broncos RB Chase Edmonds (1-year, $1.08M) to a deal with just $152,500 guaranteed.
- WR: Complementary options Julio Jones remains an unrestricted free agent, while field-stretching WR Scotty Miller signed with the Falcons and Breshad Perriman went north to sign with the Colts.
- TE: Key 2022 contributors Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph both remain free agents.
The Buccaneers used all three of their top-100 picks to address their offensive and defensive lines. The team’s only fantasy-relevant selections were Purdue TE Payne Durham (5.171) and Nebraska WR Trey Palmer. Neither are expected to overly contribute in 2023 or beyond considering the bleak future that day three picks typically enjoy.
QBs
- Baker Mayfield (Ian’s QB31)
- Kyle Trask (QB38)
The latest word out of Tampa Bay is that Mayfield and Trask will get “even reps” as they battle for the starting QB job.
Mayfield played some of the worst football of his career with the Panthers in 2022 before rebounding to a decent extent with the Rams down the stretch. No, the former first-overall pick didn’t offer any sort of counting numbers that fantasy managers could depend on. But give the man at least some credit for the short-notice comeback win over the Raiders and blowout 51-14 victory over the quitting Broncos.
There was a time when Mayfield wasn’t viewed as an objectively terrible QB by the vast majority of the public. The one-time NFL record holder for TD passes as a rookie (before Justin Herbert broke it), Mayfield is also the only man who can say they led the Browns to a playoff victory since 1994.
Wild but true: Mayfield was the QB4 in preseason ADP ahead of the 2019 season. Only Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers had higher draft value.
And yet, Mayfield has simply spent far more time putting up middling fantasy production than anything managers could be excited about. Two half-seasons of solid QB play don’t make up for the rest of his brutal performances.
- 2022: 10.1 fantasy points per game (QB32)
- 2021: 12.9 (QB27)
- 2020: 15.5 (QB23)
- 2019: 14.3 (QB27)
- 2018: 17.2 (QB19)
It’s possible – if not likely – that Mayfield enters the best offense of his career in terms of skill-position weaponry. Playing behind PFF’s reigning ninth-ranked offensive line is also a plus. But, just to keep it real, that group is hardly guaranteed to keep on keeping on after parting ways with LT Donovan Smith and RG Shaq Mason.
Oct 16, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) and offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs (78) and offensive tackle Robert Hainsey (70) and offensive tackle Donovan Smith (76) take the field to play the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
And then there’s Trask, who is most known at this point for being dubbed a slow learner by his own QB coach. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler summarized Trask as a prospect with the following notes in his ever-excellent “The Beast”:
“A two-year starter at Florida, Trask showed tremendous knowledge within head coach Dan Mullen’s scheme, playing mostly out of shotgun. Despite not starting a game over his final three years of high school (2013-15) and first three years of college (2016-18), he was extremely productive the past two seasons and led FBS in passing yards (4,283) and touchdown passes (43) in 2020 (became the first player in SEC history with at least four touchdown passes in six straight games). Trask understands where to go with the football and is at his best when he can loft throws into the void of the defense. However, his accuracy can’t be described as pinpoint, his lackluster mobility shines bright vs. pressure and there is a noticeable lack of zip on passes when he doesn’t step into his throws or use proper hip torque. Overall, Trask is a well-built, smart and tough competitor with natural touch as a passer, but his inconsistent mechanics and below-average mobility cap his ceiling as an NFL quarterback. He projects as a carbon copy of Mason Rudolph.”
Not going to lie: That last line doesn’t sound great!
Ultimately, it’s impossible to feel good about either Mayfield or Trask at this point in time based on what we’ve seen. Aside from a contrarian last-round best-ball dart in lineups with one of the Bucs’ top-two WRs, neither should be drafted in single-QB formats, at least until there’s a clear-cut leader for Week 1 starting duties.
And even then: Meh.
RBs
- Rachaad White (Ian’s RB24)
- Chase Edmonds (RB76)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB77)
- Sean Tucker (RB78)
White looked more explosive than Leonard Fournette in 2022. Still, this wasn’t a Tony Pollard over Ezekiel Elliott, or Khalil Herbert over David Montgomery type of situation where the numbers backed up what our eyes were telling us.
Both White and Fournette were objectively bad RBs when it came to running the football:
- PFF rushing grade: White (65.1, 39th), Fournette (68.7, 36th)
- Yards per carry: White (3.7, 39th), Fournette (3.5, 41st)
- Yards after contact per carry: White (2.3, 41st), Fournette (2.3, 42nd)
- Elusive Rating: White (31.3, 40th), Fournette (31.7, 39th)
Credit to White for performing better as a pass-catcher. He graded out as PFF’s 14th-highest-graded receiver among 47 qualified RBs, and his average of 1.13 yards per route run ranked 24th.
Oct 9, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (29) catches the kickoff during the first half against the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
Of course, it’s hardly a guarantee that Mayfield or Trask check the ball down to the RB as frequently as Brady, the same QB who helped guys like Shane Vereen and James White make a living in full-PPR formats over the years.
The main allure of White’s fantasy value at the moment is the reality that … there’s no one else! Things could always change with a free-agent signing (Zeke has been rumored here), but otherwise, the team only added Edmonds and Tucker to the mix.
White got to play one game without Fournette last season:
- Rushing: 14-64-0
- Receiving: 9-45-0
- Usage: 90% snap rate
- Fantasy production: PPR RB9
This offense was terrible last season, and Fournette finished as the PPR RB12 both overall and on a per-game basis. So, enough volume can turn mediocre RBs in bad offenses into quality fantasy assets.
The next question: Was Fournette an exception to the rule? How often do bad offenses produce good fantasy football assets?
Answer: Not very often, regardless of position.
The RB position does indeed produce the most high-end fantasy performers inside of bad scoring offenses. But even then, there have only been an average of 5.6 such qualifiers per season, and their median PPR per game rank was as the RB17.
White’s path to success in 2023 comes down to whether or not he can hold onto a true every-down role inside of a backfield that might not be done adding competition. He would hardly be the first RB from a bad-scoring offense to put up good fantasy numbers; just realize this isn’t the sort of offensive environment to go out of your way to get a piece of.
Overall, White’s standing as the RB25 in Underdog ADP isn’t egregious. But I’ve preferred either taking 1.) one last swing at WRs if guys like Diontae Johnson, Treylon Burks, or Jahan Dotson are still available, or 2.) Giants TE Darren Waller, at that price point.
Don’t completely fade the Buccaneers’ projected featured back; that still doesn’t make the rising second-year talent all that enticing when there are still so many viable RB3 contenders going off the board rounds later.
WRs
- Chris Godwin (Ian’s WR30)
- Mike Evans (WR31)
- Russell Gage (WR99)
- Trey Palmer (WR128)
The idea that Godwin and Evans might be this year’s Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf comes down to two simple qualifiers:
- Godwin and Evans, just like Lockett and Metcalf, have proven capable of putting up big-time fantasy numbers over the years.
- A change at QB has essentially single-handedly dropped their ADPs into WR3 territory, whereas they would likely be consensus top-24 options with continuity under center.
Adding fuel to the fire: New Buccaneers OC Dave Canales served as Geno Smith’s QB coach last season.
Nov 13, 2022; Munich, Germany, DEU; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) celebrates his touchdown with teammate wide receiver Mike Evans (13) against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter of an International Series game at Allianz Arena. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
Yes, Mayfield has spent the better part of the last two seasons being an objectively bad QB.
Also, yes, Jarvis Landry posted WR25 and WR21 production in PPR points per game in 2018 and 2019 with Mayfield as his starting QB. Even Odell Beckham Jr. posted WR33 and WR38 numbers in 2019 and 2020.
Things weren’t as pretty over the last two seasons, but it’s not like Mayfield has *zero* history of helping enable some fantasy-viable receivers.
Both Evans (77-1,124-6) and Godwin (104-1,023-3) managed to post top-15 production in PPR points per game despite last season’s turmoil. Fantasy managers certainly weren’t thrilled that Evans took until Week 17 (10-207-3) to really boom, but I’m not a fan of “take away a player’s good games and look they were actually bad” analysis.
These dudes have posted top-16 PPR production on a per-game basis in four consecutive seasons. Relative to the rest of the league, you probably don’t need to take off both pairs of shoes in order to count the number of more productive WRs in recent history.
I’m giving Godwin the slight lean over Evans because the dreaded age cliff is here for the latter receiver. The former receiver also figures to look a bit more explosive in 2023, an extra year removed from his 2021 season-ending ACL injury.
Enhanced efficiency on top of last season’s volume-hog, PPR-friendly workload. Is that something you might be interested in?
Ultimately, Evans and Godwin are going in a perfectly acceptable range of drafts given their uncertain (AKA likely shitty) offensive environment. I haven’t made a habit of drafting either over similar-ADP guys like Jordan Addison and Brandon Aiyuk, but their availability in round six of best-ball drafts speaks to the depth at the position this year. My favorite rosters have typically included four to five WRs by the time round eight rolls around; both Bucs pass-catchers are in play at their drastically reduced costs.
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Meanwhile, Gage was reduced to a part-time player down the stretch in 2022 and never seemed to refind his Atlanta-level comfort in this offense. He’s an injury away from being someone on the waiver wire who you still don’t feel good about picking up.
Unless … maybe Gage is the real Buccaneers QB1?! I’m just kidding.
Then again, maybe I’m not.
TEs
- Cade Otton (Ian’s TE33)
- Ko Kieft (TE72)
- Payne Durham (TE73)
The team never seriously replaced Rob Gronkowski or O.J. Howard, leaving Otton and long-time No. 2 option Cameron Brate to shoulder most of the load in 2022.
Clearly, the Bucs liked Otton to a decent extent, as the rookie played north of 80% of the offense’s snaps on seven separate occasions last season. This is awfully rare for a rookie at the position considering the nuance required to be NFL-ready as both a receiver and blocker.
The central problem here is that it’s not a given this willingness to let the starting TE cook will be replicated under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. The team was far more willing to rotate Otton when Brate was also healthy, something that could be replicated with either Kieft or Durham in 2023.
Ultimately, Otton isn’t anything more than a last-round best-ball pick on rosters that largely faded the position. Even then, there are other late-round TE options I prefer, like Gerald Everett, Tyler Conklin and Jelani Woods, thanks to their superior upside in offenses with far fewer question marks under center.
2023 Win Total: 6.5 (+115 on the over)
The Buccaneers couldn’t consistently move the ball with Tom f*cking Brady under center in 2022. So, it’s hard to see that changing in a meaningful way, especially with the offensive line potentially taking an even bigger step back after losing multiple starters.
It was surprising to see the front office put up the sort of necessary money to re-sign CB Jamel Dean and LB Lavonte David. But then again, this wasn’t exactly a world-beating unit in 2022 anyways, as evidenced by their 12th-place ranking in EPA allowed per play.
The Bucs aren’t the only NFC South team that will probably be bad this season, and their first-place schedule won’t make life any easier. I’m rolling with under 6.5 wins for what looks like one of the worst teams in the NFL ahead of 2023.
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