49ers @ Commanders Week 17 Game Preview
Matt LaMarca breaks down the Week 17 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Washington Commanders from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Commanders
For the first time in a long time, the 49ers looked mortal on Monday night. They weren’t just beaten by the Ravens; they got flat-out embarrassed at home. Baltimore’s defense forced Brock Purdy into the worst performance of his career, and the Ravens were able to get points from all of their first seven drives. If that was a Super Bowl preview – which many people (including myself) have predicted – San Francisco should be extremely worried.
There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks about Purdy’s MVP candidacy. He entered Week 16 leading the league in basically every passing efficiency metric, and he helped propel the 49ers’ offense to elite levels. They led the league in EPA per play by a wide margin and were challenging some of the best offenses in NFL history heading into Week 16.
That naturally made Purdy an MVP frontrunner, but some wanted to push back. With all the talent he had supporting him and an offensive mastermind pulling the strings, some thought that Purdy was a replaceable asset, and those detractors secured a huge win on Monday.
Purdy started the game with a couple of INTs and then proceeded to throw a couple more INTs before getting pulled in the fourth quarter. By the time his night was finished, Purdy looked like a QB who did not belong in the NFL. He lacked confidence and was clearly rattled. Yes, the Ravens' defense is elite, but they were sliced up by Matthew Stafford in Baltimore just two weeks ago.
Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass next to Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (92) in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
The one silver lining from Monday night for 49ers fans is that Purdy didn’t suffer a major injury. He did aggravate his neck stinger but was reportedly kept out of the fourth quarter only as a precaution with the offensive line struggling all night after All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams exited the game.
Williams will undergo an MRI on his injured groin, and he would be a huge loss for San Francisco if he were to miss time. It’s not surprising that their worst performances this season have come in games with their star left tackle out or limited.
It remains to be seen what version of Purdy will show up in Washington this week if Williams is out, though his potential loss could be mitigated by the fact that the Commanders traded away their top two pass-rushers back in October. Washington also currently ranks 31st in dropback EPA allowed, so it’s the perfect opportunity for Purdy to get his groove back.
The Commanders are also coming off an embarrassing performance of their own. They let the Jets jump out to a 17-0 lead roughly five minutes into Sunday’s game. I’m not sure if the Jets have scored 17 first-quarter points all season, and they did it in the blink of an eye this past week.
Meanwhile, Sam Howell was benched for the second straight week, and though Jacoby Brissett managed to lead the team to the brink of an improbable comeback, they ultimately fell short.
Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) is shown with the ball, at MetLife Stadium, against the New York Jets, Sunday December 24, 2023. Photo Credit: Kevin R. Wexler / USA TODAY NETWORK
After a hot start to the season, Howell has cooled off in the second half of the year. Since Week 10, he ranks a lowly 41st out of 43 QBs with at least 50 snaps played in EPA + CPOE composite. Only Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Trevor Siemian have been worse, so it’s fair to wonder whether Washington should stick with Howell for these last two games. Against a stout 49ers defense that will be playing angry after their humiliating loss to the Ravens, it’s probably in the Commanders’ best interest to protect their young QB.
Despite San Francisco’s poor performance this past week, they still enter this contest as massive 13.5-point road favorites. The early sharp money is coming in on the 49ers, so this number could continue to rise.
It makes sense, as the 49ers have had no problems with covering big numbers with Purdy under center. They’re 4-2 ATS with Purdy when favored by more than 10 points, and eight of their 11 victories this season have come by at least 14 points.
However, Williams's groin injury will be the big X-factor. If he’s out of the lineup, and Washington starts the veteran Brissett, this might end up being too many points.