Broncos @ Lions Week 15 Game Preview
Matt LaMarca breaks down the Week 15 matchup between the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions
Saturday’s three-game slate features a nightcap between two teams headed in opposite directions. The Lions have stumbled recently, having dropped two of their last three games, while the Broncos have now won six of their past seven.
Denver's recent wins have placed them at 7-6 on the year and right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card hunt. The New York Times gives the Broncos a roughly 48% chance of making the postseason while The Athletic is a bit more pessimistic with a 36% chance of them making the playoffs.
How have the Broncos done it? The answer has mainly been the defense. That might seem far-fetched after the team allowed 70 points and more than 700 yards against the Dolphins in Week 3, but they’ve come a long way since then. In fact, Denver ranks third in EPA allowed per play defensively since Week 7, trailing only the Jets and Vikings. They’ve also been particularly stout against the pass, ranking second in dropback EPA allowed over that span.
Offensively, the Broncos have been middle of the pack. They’ve been an average team on the ground and through the air, but an average offense has been enough with the defense slowing down opponents. Courtland Sutton has also been a steady contributor this season after a couple of down years, as he's scored a TD in 10 of their 13 games thus far in 2023.
Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) catches a touchdown pass against Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Michael Davis (43) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The best thing the Broncos have done offensively, though, has been limiting turnovers. In fact, they have one turnover or none in each of their past six wins. The exception was a three-turnover performance at Houston, which resulted in the lone loss in their past seven games.
Finally, it’s also worth noting that Denver has been a bit fortunate. Some of that has come from scheduling, like getting to play the Chiefs while Patrick Mahomes was under the weather or having caught the Bills after extended rest from their bye. Some of it has also stemmed from wins in close games that could’ve gone either way, as three of the Broncos' past six wins have been by two points or less.
Overall, I’m still not sure if the Broncos are a good team, but they’re not a bad team. That’s a step in the right direction after a disastrous start to the year, and they currently rank 13th in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, checking in right around league average.
As for the Lions, their defense has also been directly responsible for their recent play, but not in a good way. After looking much improved defensively to start the year, Detroit has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks. They rank 30th in EPA allowed per play defensively since Week 7, and only the Commanders have been worse against the pass over that span.
Oct 30, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions defensive tackle Alim McNeill (54) sacks Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) during the second half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Injuries have played a large factor. Contributors on defense like C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Emmanuel Moseley, and Alim McNeill have all gone on IR in recent weeks, which has left Detroit's defense devoid of talent. Of their remaining starters, only Aidan Hutchison and Brian Branch grade out as above-average players per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
The good news is that the Lions still have a good offense. They currently rank third in yards per game and seventh in points per game, so the Lions are capable of winning shootouts. They’ve also been particularly good at running the football with their thunder (David Montgomery) and lightning (Jahmyr Gibbs) combo, which sets up well in this matchup against a poor Broncos run defense.
Ultimately, this feels like a good time to sell high on Denver and buy low on Detroit. Dan Campbell has been pretty good throughout his career following a loss (18-14 ATS for a 7.4% ROI), and the Lions' defensive injuries shouldn't be as glaring against a mediocre Broncos offense.
The sharps appear to agree, as Detroit has received most of the early professional action. That’s driven this number from Lions -3.5 to Lions -5.0, and that number could continue to rise as we approach kickoff.