Fantasy Football ADP - Rookie Super Model Rankings vs. ADP

It might be April, but digging for fantasy football sleepers is a year-round job. And thanks to Dwain’s Super Model(s), I’ve unearthed a couple of deep sleepers to put on your radar (and a couple of buzzy guys to approach with a healthy dose of skepticism).

One of the best ways to get an edge on the market is to have some form of proprietary information.

In the case of fantasy, the market is ADP (average draft position). In early Underdog Fantasy contests, there have been thousands and thousands of drafts that have informed this ADP. In general, this ADP is very efficient. The wisdom of the crowds is a powerful tool for price discovery, but not as powerful in pre-NFL draft contests.

Draft capital (aka where a player goes in the NFL Draft) and landing spot will go a long way in shaping our fantasy forecast for these rookies. But before those inputs are solidified, there’s a lot of guesswork being done by the market to “correctly” order these rookies in drafts.

That’s why Dwain’s Super Model is such a valuable tool. Not only has it been back–tested to help us “identify the top rookie prospects based on data points that correlate most with future NFL production,” but it’s also independent of outside factors that can influence the market.

This means that we can use the Super Model to identify prospects who are potentially either way overvalued or undervalued by the market.

In a recent video, I compared three different sets of sharp best ball rankings and was able to unearth a must-draft WR and two early RBs to fade. And now today, with the help of the Super Model, I’ve found a couple of rookie sleepers to sprinkle in during my final Big Board drafts (and to be prepared to move quickly on after the NFL Draft if things break favorably for them).

The 2024 NFL Draft is underway! Read about all of the 2024 NFL Draft winners and losers for fantasy football as the draft unfolds!

Fantasy Football ADP vs. Rookie Super Model Rankings

Jacob Cowing vs. Xavier Legette (Tier 5 Battle)

• Cowing Model Rank (15) / Underdog Rank (23) / Difference (+8)
• Legette Model Rank (19) / Underdog Rank (10) / Difference (-9)

Xavier Legette has been a trendy prospect since the Combine, and he’s now expected to go in the Top 50 picks of the NFL Draft. It’s understandable why Underdog drafters are excited about Legette. At 6’ 1 and 221 lbs with 4.39 speed he physically comp’s to A.J. Brown. But unfortunately, there are massive red flags to his production profile, which Dwain outlined in his Tier 5 profiles:

“We are dealing with a fifth-year senior who never sniffed a strong RYPTPA (receiving yards per team pass attempt) until his age-23 season. Legette’s Adjusted Career RYPTPA was minus 0.07, which led to a 20th percentile score.”

Legette legitimately only had one good season (1,255 yards in 2023) as a very old senior. Before that, he topped out at a stunningly low 167 yards.

Despite being projected to go 80+ picks later than Legette (something the model already accounts for, btw), Jacob Cowing clocks in four spots higher than Legette in the model. Considering Cowing largely goes undrafted right now (ADP 237.5), this grabbed my attention.

Cowing is a small (5’8 and 168 lbs), older (23.6) prospect, but was a highly productive player at Arizona, as Dwain notes here:

“Playing primarily from the slot (24% wide rate), Cowing registered a 28% career target share, the second-best mark behind Worthy for FBS WRs. His 83rd percentile Adjusted Career RYPTPA was the top score for an FBS receiver. While he is a five-year player, he did a ton of damage over his first three seasons, which keeps his production score high in the model.”

With their right fit, Cowing could immediately earn targets out of the slot at the NFL level.

This Cowing vs. Legette discrepancy illustrates many of the things I like to do in fantasy contests, specifically tournaments where contrarian takes are rewarded:

• Mix-up bets within similar tiers. This is something Pat Kerrane highlighted in my Big Board tips video and a mistake I made last summer by going super heavy on Marvin Mims and not mixing in more of Tank Dell, Jayden Reed, and Josh Downs, who were all in a similar tier:

• Scrolling the eff down. Legette is getting drafted in 100% of Big Board contests, while Cowing is getting selected in less than 5%. In selecting Cowing some, you’re not only getting a better prospect according to Dwain’s model, but you’re also getting a massive exposure discount which immediately makes your teams more unique. 
• Leverage market overconfidence. Drafters have fallen in love with Legette’s size/speed combo and projected draft capital, but it won’t matter if he can’t win at the next level. Dwain’s Model indicates that he’s being massively overvalued. It doesn’t even have to be Legette vs. Cowing, but drafters should be prioritizing guys like Ricky Pearsall, Roman Wilson, and Jermaine Burton (more on him in a sec), who all go after Legette in drafts but the Model has ranked higher: 

Will Shipley vs. MarShawn Lloyd

• Shipley Model Rank (6) / Underdog Rank (10) / Difference (+4)
• Lloyd Model Rank (10) / Underdog Rank (5) / Difference (-5)

We’ve spent a lot of time recently lamenting that the 2024 RB class is fairly weak, but the ambiguity of the top backs after Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson means there are angles to exploit.

When you look at the current NFL Mock Draft Database, there’s only a 15 gap difference between where MarShawn Lloyd (108th overall) and Will Shipley (123rd) are expected to go in the NFL Draft. And yet, Lloyd is the 5th rookie RB off the board in current drafts (ADP 151.8), while Shipley is the 10th RB selected, going over 50 picks after Lloyd in drafts (ADP: 202).

When you read Dwain’s prospect summaries, it’s not hard to understand why the range of outcomes is wide for both of these guys:

Shipley’s pedigree and traits scream RB1 upside, but his production profile leaves you scratching your head. He is the most versatile back in the class and offers massive potential as a pass catcher if he further develops with NFL coaching. There are no guarantees that progress ever takes place, but it is the kind of bet that pays off big when you are right.

https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/1780615997952524546

Lloyd is a boom-bust prospect. His pedigree, measurables and eye-catching play style make us want to believe in his upside. However, his production profile and PFF grades tell us those wow moments don’t always add up in the right way.

When two RBs both have a wide range of outcomes and are in the same tier, we absolutely need to be taking the 50-pick discount in drafts.

Other Fantasy Football ADP Sleepers - Rookies

Jermaine Burton (vs. Malik Washington)

• Burton Model Rank (10) / Underdog Rank (15) / Difference (+5)
• Washington Model Rank (25) / Underdog Rank (19) / Difference (-6)

Jermaine Burton is a screaming target across all formats right now. His strong production at two big-time programs (Georgia and Alabama) makes him a very intriguing sleeper in drafts. Most interesting, Burton’s profile is the least dependent on draft capital of all the Tier 4 WRs, further underscoring the strength of his production profile.

Jase McClellan vs. (Frank Gore Jr.)

• McClellan Model Rank (7) / Underdog Rank (19) / Difference (+7)
• Gore Jr. Model Rank (21) / Underdog Rank (13) / Difference (-8)

I’m always looking for some deep rookie RB sleepers and I’ll be the first to admit I had not heard of Jase McClellan until Dwain covered him:

“McClellan won’t be a high NFL Draft pick. He lacks the speed and explosiveness to move up the board. Still, if he gets an opportunity, he has the size and skill set to become a functional back that can provide fantasy value in spurts, similar to Brian Robinson Jr. and Damien Harris.”

On the flip side, Frank Gore Jr. (yes, they are related) didn’t even crack the Top 20 in the model and is still going well ahead of McClellan in drafts because of that sweet, sweet name-brand value.