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Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers. Week 13

Dwain McFarland

12/01/2022

Redraft

It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 13 of the fantasy football season.

Below you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, betting totals, and implied points for every game on the slate.

Find all of our positional rankings here.

Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers – Week 13

Last updated: 11 am, Saturday, December 3rd. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!

Quarterback

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	QB1	Patrick Mahomes II	at CIN	53.0	-2.0	27.50	26.3
1	QB2	Josh Allen	at NE	43.5	-4.0	23.75	26.2
1	QB3	Jalen Hurts	vs TEN	44.5	-4.5	24.50	24.8
1	QB4	Joe Burrow	vs KC	53.0	2.0	25.50	22.9
2	QB5	Tua Tagovailoa	at SF	46.5	4.0	21.25	19.9
2	QB6	Justin Herbert	at LV	49.5	1.0	24.25	18.3
2	QB7	Justin Fields	vs GB	44.5	3.5	20.50	21.4
2	QB8	Lamar Jackson	vs DEN	39.5	-9.5	24.50	22.0
3	QB9	Deshaun Watson	at HOU	47.5	-7.0	27.25	0.0
3	QB10	Dak Prescott	vs IND	44.5	-10.5	27.50	17.1
3	QB11	Trevor Lawrence	at DET	51.0	1.0	25.00	17.5
3	QB12	Geno Smith	at LAR	40.5	-7.0	23.75	18.8
4	QB13	Derek Carr	vs LAC	49.5	-1.0	25.25	16.5
4	QB14	Jimmy Garoppolo	vs MIA	46.5	-4.0	25.25	16.7
4	QB15	Tom Brady	vs NO	40.5	-3.5	22.00	15.8
4	QB16	Kirk Cousins	vs NYJ	44.5	-3.0	23.75	16.9
5	QB17	Jared Goff	vs JAC	51.0	-1.0	26.00	15.6
5	QB18	Aaron Rodgers	at CHI	44.5	-3.5	24.00	15.2
5	QB19	Mike White	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	24.8
5	QB20	Marcus Mariota	vs PIT	42.0	1.0	20.50	16.2
5	QB21	Daniel Jones	vs WAS	40.5	2.5	19.00	17.2
6	QB22	Kenny Pickett	at ATL	42.0	-1.0	21.50	13.2
6	QB23	Ryan Tannehill	at PHI	44.5	4.5	20.00	13.7
6	QB24	Mac Jones	vs BUF	43.5	4.0	19.75	12.5
6	QB25	Taylor Heinicke	at NYG	40.5	-2.5	21.50	13.3
6	QB26	Russell Wilson	at BAL	39.5	9.5	15.00	14.1
6	QB27	Matt Ryan	at DAL	44.5	10.5	17.00	14.5
6	QB28	Andy Dalton	at TB	40.5	3.5	18.50	15.0
7	QB29	John Wolford	vs SEA	40.5	7.0	16.75	9.8
7	QB30	Kyle Allen	vs CLE	47.5	7.0	20.25	5.9

Tier 2 – Justin Fields

Fields practiced in full the last two days and was removed from the injury report. Matt Eberflus indicated the second-year QB is healthy enough to protect himself, but we don’t know if that means the team will take precautions with play calling.

Fields’ fantasy eruption coincided with more involvement in designed-run plays. Over the first six games of the season, he averaged 12% and delivered 13.3 fantasy points per game. Then, during Weeks 7 to 11, his designed runs jumped to 25%, and he averaged a sizzling 31 points per game.

There is a real chance the coaching staff tries to limit contact to their young QB’s shoulder by reducing his rushing attempts. However, there is a chance he will play his typical game, given his full practice participation and removal from the injury report. He has finished QB5, QB5, QB1, QB1 and QB7 in his last five games.

Fields moves up to QB7 thanks to his proven QB1 overall upside.

Tier 3 – Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence has a top-10 finish in five of his last six games and averages 19.5 points.

The second year QB has the sixth-best PFF passing grade (90.3) over the last five weeks, leading the league in completion percentage (72.7%). He has registered the fifth-highest big-time throw rate (6.5%).

He has found multiple weapons to get involved outside Christian Kirk, with Zay Jones being the latest to deliver. Jones has 19 receptions for 203 yards in the last two outings. We could be witnessing the maturation of the former No. 1 overall NFL draft pick.

And even if we aren’t, he gets a plus matchup against the Lions, where it will be hard to fail. Detroit has PFF’s fourth-worst graded coverage unit, and the Jaguars have a gaudy top-four team total.

Lawrence is a SMASH low-end QB1 in Week 13.

Additional QB Notes & Movers:

Tier 3 – Deshaun Watson returns to play his first football since 2020. There is a chance he is rusty, but he has big-play upside via the air and on the ground. Watson has averaged 25, 22, 22, and 24 points per game in his career and matches up against the worst-graded PFF coverage unit (44.2) in the Texans. The Browns have the second-best team total on the slate. Watson is a top-eight option.
Tier 5 – Mike White has two 300-plus yard passing totals in four full games in the NFL. His style of play doesn’t scream big yardage (14% check-down rate last weekend), and he was eventually exposed last season. However, he draws a juicy matchup against a Vikings secondary that allows the most non-overtime passing yards per game (292). He is a mid-range QB2 in superflex leagues.

Running Back

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	RB1	Austin Ekeler	at LV	49.5	1.0	24.25	23.2
1	RB2	Josh Jacobs	vs LAC	49.5	-1.0	25.25	22.0
1	RB3	Nick Chubb	at HOU	47.5	-7.0	27.25	18.9
1	RB4	Derrick Henry	at PHI	44.5	4.5	20.00	19.8
2	RB5	Rhamondre Stevenson	vs BUF	43.5	4.0	19.75	16.7
2	RB6	Christian McCaffrey	vs MIA	46.5	-4.0	25.25	19.2
2	RB7	Jonathan Taylor	at DAL	44.5	10.5	17.00	14.5
2	RB8	Travis Etienne Jr.	at DET	51.0	1.0	25.00	12.6
2	RB9	Saquon Barkley	vs WAS	40.5	2.5	19.00	18.2
2	RB10	Kenneth Walker III	at LAR	40.5	-7.0	23.75	14.6
2	RB11	Aaron Jones	at CHI	44.5	-3.5	24.00	16.0
2	RB12	Dalvin Cook	vs NYJ	44.5	-3.0	23.75	15.1
2	RB13	Joe Mixon	vs KC	53.0	2.0	25.50	18.1
3	RB14	Tony Pollard	vs IND	44.5	-10.5	27.50	15.6
3	RB15	Alvin Kamara	at TB	40.5	3.5	18.50	15.4
3	RB16	David Montgomery	vs GB	44.5	3.5	20.50	10.8
3	RB17	Najee Harris	at ATL	42.0	-1.0	21.50	12.4
3	RB18	Jamaal Williams	vs JAC	51.0	-1.0	26.00	14.9
3	RB19	Jeff Wilson Jr.	at SF	46.5	4.0	21.25	11.3
3	RB20	Dameon Pierce	vs CLE	47.5	7.0	20.25	12.9
4	RB21	Cordarrelle Patterson	vs PIT	42.0	1.0	20.50	12.8
4	RB22	Miles Sanders	vs TEN	44.5	-4.5	24.50	14.5
4	RB23	Isiah Pacheco	at CIN	53.0	-2.0	27.50	5.7
4	RB24	Ezekiel Elliott	vs IND	44.5	-10.5	27.50	12.4
4	RB25	Rachaad White	vs NO	40.5	-3.5	22.00	7.2
4	RB26	Leonard Fournette	vs NO	40.5	-3.5	22.00	15.6
4	RB27	Brian Robinson Jr.	at NYG	40.5	-2.5	21.50	9.2
4	RB28	Antonio Gibson	at NYG	40.5	-2.5	21.50	12.4
4	RB29	Devin Singletary	at NE	43.5	-4.0	23.75	11.7
4	RB30	Gus Edwards	vs DEN	39.5	-9.5	24.50	11.4
4	RB31	Zonovan Knight	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	13.3
4	RB32	Latavius Murray	at BAL	39.5	9.5	15.00	10.0
5	RB33	D'Andre Swift	vs JAC	51.0	-1.0	26.00	13.0
5	RB34	AJ Dillon	at CHI	44.5	-3.5	24.00	8.2
5	RB35	Jaylen Warren	at ATL	42.0	-1.0	21.50	4.9
5	RB36	Tyler Allgeier	vs PIT	42.0	1.0	20.50	7.8
5	RB37	Kyren Williams	vs SEA	40.5	7.0	16.75	7.1
5	RB38	Ty Johnson	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	2.6
5	RB39	Kareem Hunt	at HOU	47.5	-7.0	27.25	9.0
5	RB40	Raheem Mostert	at SF	46.5	4.0	21.25	10.7
5	RB41	Jerick McKinnon	at CIN	53.0	-2.0	27.50	6.5
5	RB42	Tyrion Davis-Price	vs MIA	46.5	-4.0	25.25	1.9
5	RB43	Cam Akers	vs SEA	40.5	7.0	16.75	3.9
6	RB44	JaMycal Hasty	at DET	51.0	1.0	25.00	5.1
6	RB45	James Robinson	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	8.8
6	RB46	Kenyan Drake	vs DEN	39.5	-9.5	24.50	8.8
6	RB47	Dontrell Hilliard	at PHI	44.5	4.5	20.00	7.4
6	RB48	Kenneth Gainwell	vs TEN	44.5	-4.5	24.50	5.1
6	RB49	Samaje Perine	vs KC	53.0	2.0	25.50	9.0
6	RB50	James Cook	at NE	43.5	-4.0	23.75	4.5
6	RB51	Darrynton Evans	vs GB	44.5	3.5	20.50	7.7
6	RB52	Alexander Mattison	vs NYJ	44.5	-3.0	23.75	4.8
6	RB53	Ameer Abdullah	vs LAC	49.5	-1.0	25.25	3.6
6	RB54	Matt Breida	vs WAS	40.5	2.5	19.00	3.0
6	RB55	Boston Scott	vs TEN	44.5	-4.5	24.50	2.3
6	RB56	Jordan Mason	vs MIA	46.5	-4.0	25.25	0.8
6	RB57	Deon Jackson	at DAL	44.5	10.5	17.00	7.3
6	RB58	Darrell Henderson Jr.	at DET	51.0	1.0	25.00	7.4
6	RB59	Travis Homer	at LAR	40.5	-7.0	23.75	3.6
6	RB60	Justice Hill	vs DEN	39.5	-9.5	24.50	3.5
6	RB61	Mark Ingram II	at TB	40.5	3.5	18.50	4.5
6	RB62	Justin Jackson	vs JAC	51.0	-1.0	26.00	2.9
6	RB63	Joshua Kelley	at LV	49.5	1.0	24.25	5.5
7	RB64	Marlon Mack	at BAL	39.5	9.5	15.00	0.7
7	RB65	Myles Gaskin	at SF	46.5	4.0	21.25	4.7
7	RB66	Caleb Huntley	vs PIT	42.0	1.0	20.50	4.3
7	RB67	Trestan Ebner	vs GB	44.5	3.5	20.50	0.9
7	RB68	Isaiah Spiller	at LV	49.5	1.0	24.25	1.7
7	RB69	Rex Burkhead	vs CLE	47.5	7.0	20.25	5.9
7	RB70	Dare Ogunbowale	vs CLE	47.5	7.0	20.25	2.8
7	RB71	Ronald Jones II	at CIN	53.0	-2.0	27.50	4.4
7	RB72	Benny Snell Jr.	at ATL	42.0	-1.0	21.50	2.8
7	RB73	Zamir White	vs LAC	49.5	-1.0	25.25	0.7

Tier 1 – Nick Chubb

Chubb hasn’t had a fantasy blowup game since Week 1, but he continues to play the position as efficiently as any other back in the NFL. He ranks highly in rushing metrics compared to 50 other RBs with at least 50 attempts.

PFF Rush Grade	Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt	Average Yards After Contact	10-Plus Yard Attempt %
90.3 (3rd)	0.31 (1st)	3.61 (6th)	16.5% (5th)

He continues to share time with Kareem Hunt, but he averages 60% of the carries on the season, and he gets 69% of the work inside the five-yard line. And in a new development, he has taken on more responsibilities in the two-minute offense over the last two games, with 70% and 50%.

Week	Snaps	Rush Att	Routes	Targets	TPRR	SDD Snaps	i5 Att	LDD Snaps	2MIN Snaps	PPR
1	53%	59%	28%	3%	10%	33%	0%	17%	29%	15.3
2	54%	50%	45%	11%	20%	80%	100%	11%	0%	32.3
3	63%	61%	41%	3%	7%	45%	33%	20%	0%	17.3
4	55%	58%	38%	7%	13%	50%	100%	20%	0%	20.7
5	52%	59%	39%	3%	7%	40%	67%	20%	0%	25.4
6	44%	67%	33%	2%	6%	20%	0%	6%	18%	8.0
7	57%	73%	42%	8%	13%	20%	50%	0%	24%	18.7
8	52%	51%	27%	5%	14%	33%	50%	20%	0%	23.4
10	48%	52%	30%	12%	31%	71%	0%	8%	22%	17.1
11	55%	61%	38%	8%	18%	50%	0%	8%	70%	9.7
12	59%	79%	37%	3%	6%	50%	100%	6%	50%	20.2
YTD	54%	60%	36%	6%	13%	46%	69%	12%	26%	18.9

The Browns primarily attack defenses through Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Still, the new role could lead to additional fantasy points for Chubb in the right game script, which helps insulate his value in trailing game scripts.

The superstar RB faces the Texans – the third-worst PFF run defense (36.8) – who allow the most non-overtime rushing attempts per game (33.8). The Browns are seven-point favorites, which sets up well for a run-heavy attack.

This setup has slate-breaking upside similar to what we have seen Derrick Henry provide against Houston. Can anyone say 200 yards and 2 TDs? It may sound silly, but it is in the range of outcomes this weekend.

Chubb is a top-three SMASH play in Week 13.

Tier 2 – Aaron Jones

Since Week 5, the Packers have fed Jones 57% or more of the rushing attempts in six out of eight games. In those games, Jones averaged 18.7 fantasy points.

Week	Snaps	Rush Att	Routes	Targets	TPRR	SDD Snaps	i5 Att	LDD Snaps	2MIN Snaps	PPR
1	61%	28%	65%	15%	18%	50%	0%	43%	83%	10.6
2	59%	39%	63%	13%	17%	50%	0%	67%	40%	32.0
3	63%	48%	59%	12%	18%	67%	0%	75%	100%	7.7
4	62%	46%	39%	13%	27%	67%	0%	58%	100%	14.5
5	73%	65%	63%	9%	12%	57%	0%	100%	100%	10.0
6	56%	45%	53%	9%	15%	50%	0%	57%	100%	7.4
7	74%	62%	71%	29%	38%	80%	100%	86%	86%	28.6
8	67%	66%	54%	19%	26%	88%	0%	80%	73%	19.7
9	41%	41%	29%	5%	13%	50%	0%	50%	0%	6.5
10	70%	62%	48%	11%	20%	50%	0%	86%	0%	22.9
11	66%	60%	59%	19%	30%	86%	0%	58%	69%	12.0
12	71%	57%	79%	16%	18%	100%	0%	88%	67%	18.9
YTD	63%	51%	56%	14%	21%	62%	20%	68%	73%	15.9

The veteran back also consistently leads the way in route participation as the preferred long-down-distance and two-minute offense option. Early in the season, we saw AJ Dillon more involved, but since Week 4, he has only eclipsed a 50% snap share once.

Jones owns the No. 2 PFF rushing grade (90.7) and is No. 5 in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29).

The Bears have the worst PFF run grade (30.6) and allow 30.8 attempts per contest in non-overtime play – the second-most.

Jones is a SMASH play and is due for a big performance.

Tier 3 – Dameon Pierce

Pierce was a downgrade in this week’s Utilization Report after losing the passing-down work and ceding touches to Dare Ogunbowale once Week 12’s game was out of hand. However, he picks up a great matchup against the Browns, the second-lowest PFF run defense.

The rookie’s last two weeks have been rough, with two finishes outside the top-40 RBs. However, he should still be in line for the majority of rushing attempts as long as the game doesn’t turn into a complete blowout. Pierce averaged 16.6 rushing attempts in games where Houston trailed by four-plus points on over 50% of their snaps before Week 12 (five attempts).

Pierce is a boom-bust low-end RB2, but consensus rankings are slightly over-adjusting.

Tier 4 – Rachaad White

Leonard Fournette is not on the injury report and will return on Monday night.

White handled 55% of the backfield in Week 10 before Fournette went down, so there is a chance he remains the lead option. However, Fournette had passport issues getting to Germany, which could have irritated the coaching staff. So, there is also a chance White returns to his 30-40% snap role we saw early in the season.

I am forecasting this as a near 50/50 split on Monday night, making both backs high-end RB3 options, but either could put up high-end RB2 numbers if they take charge against the Saints.

Tier 4 – Zonovan Knight

Michael Carter is doubtful after missing practice all week, which sets Knight up to lead the team in rushing attempts. Last weekend, James Robinson was a healthy scratch because the team wanted to get the rookie involved, and he delivered with 14 attempts for 69 yards and three receptions for 34.

After Carter left the game, Knight handled 67% of snaps and 59% of rushing attempts, playing a role similar to Brian Robinson Jr. in Washington.

Michael Carter

Ty Johnson will handle the passing down role, but Knight saw a 38% TPRR last week and could still be involved. Knight should be in line for 15 to 18 touches, even if Robinson steals a few snaps.

Knight is a mid-range RB3 with RB2 upside.

Additional RB Notes & Movers:

Tier 2 – Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 20.0 fantasy points since taking over a near-every-down role starting in Week 5. The second-year RB is quite the receiving back, averaging a 22% target share. He ranks sixth in YPRR (1.62) and fourth in TPRR (27%). Stevenson is a top-six RB this week.
Tier 2 – Travis Etienne Jr. left the game last week with a foot injury, but the team insists he could have returned. He is questionable for Sunday after limited practice sessions all week. The Jaguars have a sweet matchup against the Lions, who allow the second-most rushing yards (155) and the most TDs (1.6) per game in non-overtime play. Etienne is a mid-range RB1.
Tier 3 – Cordarrelle Patterson regained the passing-down role we came to love in 2021 in Week 12 with Kyle Pitts out. The Steelers' defense is tough against the run, but Patterson might be too involved in the passing attack to fail. Pittsburgh’s man-heavy approach keeps Patterson from climbing higher – most of C-Patt’s targets come against zone. He is a low-end RB2 with upside.
Tier 3 – Brian Robinson could be an every-down option if Antonio Gibson can’t go this weekend. He would climb to RB16 in that scenario.
Tier 3 – Antonio Gibson is one of the only RBs in the NFL that sees an increase in targets against man coverage (31% TPRR) over zone (26%), and the Giants use the most man concepts (48.9%). He hasn’t had a blowup game in a while, but the underlying utilization is upside-RB2-worthy. He ranks No. 3 in YPRR (1.71) and No. 5 in TPRR (26%). Gibson is a high-end RB3 if healthy.
Tier 4 – Isiah Pacheco is bogarting all of the rushing work over the last three games, averaging 73% of the carries. The Chiefs remain a pass-first unit, but they see plenty of scoring chances and their favorite red-zone trinkets (Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney) are injured. Pacheco is a low-end RB3.

Wide Receiver

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	WR1	Davante Adams	vs LAC	49.5	-1.0	25.25	21.0
1	WR2	Stefon Diggs	at NE	43.5	-4.0	23.75	22.6
1	WR3	Tyreek Hill	at SF	46.5	4.0	21.25	21.6
1	WR4	Justin Jefferson	vs NYJ	44.5	-3.0	23.75	22.3
1	WR5	Amon-Ra St. Brown	vs JAC	51.0	-1.0	26.00	16.9
2	WR6	CeeDee Lamb	vs IND	44.5	-10.5	27.50	16.5
2	WR7	A.J. Brown	vs TEN	44.5	-4.5	24.50	15.8
2	WR8	Jaylen Waddle	at SF	46.5	4.0	21.25	17.1
2	WR9	Ja'Marr Chase	vs KC	53.0	2.0	25.50	20.2
2	WR10	Tee Higgins	vs KC	53.0	2.0	25.50	16.4
2	WR11	Amari Cooper	at HOU	47.5	-7.0	27.25	16.1
2	WR12	Christian Kirk	at DET	51.0	1.0	25.00	15.4
3	WR13	Keenan Allen	at LV	49.5	1.0	24.25	10.5
3	WR14	Chris Godwin	vs NO	40.5	-3.5	22.00	14.6
3	WR15	DK Metcalf	at LAR	40.5	-7.0	23.75	13.3
3	WR16	Tyler Lockett	at LAR	40.5	-7.0	23.75	14.5
3	WR17	DeVonta Smith	vs TEN	44.5	-4.5	24.50	12.1
3	WR18	Garrett Wilson	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	12.4
3	WR19	Mike Evans	vs NO	40.5	-3.5	22.00	13.9
3	WR20	Terry McLaurin	at NYG	40.5	-2.5	21.50	12.6
3	WR21	Chris Olave	at TB	40.5	3.5	18.50	14.2
3	WR22	Brandon Aiyuk	vs MIA	46.5	-4.0	25.25	13.7
3	WR23	Christian Watson	at CHI	44.5	-3.5	24.00	11.3
3	WR24	JuJu Smith-Schuster	at CIN	53.0	-2.0	27.50	12.4
3	WR25	Michael Pittman Jr.	at DAL	44.5	10.5	17.00	14.4
3	WR26	Deebo Samuel	vs MIA	46.5	-4.0	25.25	13.7
4	WR27	Joshua Palmer	at LV	49.5	1.0	24.25	12.4
4	WR28	George Pickens	at ATL	42.0	-1.0	21.50	9.9
4	WR29	Diontae Johnson	at ATL	42.0	-1.0	21.50	10.1
4	WR30	Gabe Davis	at NE	43.5	-4.0	23.75	12.8
4	WR31	Zay Jones	at DET	51.0	1.0	25.00	12.4
4	WR32	Treylon Burks	at PHI	44.5	4.5	20.00	8.4
4	WR33	Courtland Sutton	at BAL	39.5	9.5	15.00	11.6
4	WR34	Jakobi Meyers	vs BUF	43.5	4.0	19.75	13.4
4	WR35	Allen Lazard	at CHI	44.5	-3.5	24.00	12.5
4	WR36	Darius Slayton	vs WAS	40.5	2.5	19.00	10.8
4	WR37	Adam Thielen	vs NYJ	44.5	-3.0	23.75	11.8
4	WR38	Drake London	vs PIT	42.0	1.0	20.50	9.1
4	WR39	Tyler Boyd	vs KC	53.0	2.0	25.50	11.6
4	WR40	Donovan Peoples-Jones	at HOU	47.5	-7.0	27.25	9.6
4	WR41	Parris Campbell	at DAL	44.5	10.5	17.00	9.4
5	WR42	Mack Hollins	vs LAC	49.5	-1.0	25.25	10.1
5	WR43	Chase Claypool	vs GB	44.5	3.5	20.50	7.9
5	WR44	Nico Collins	vs CLE	47.5	7.0	20.25	9.4
5	WR45	Curtis Samuel	at NYG	40.5	-2.5	21.50	11.3
5	WR46	Michael Gallup	vs IND	44.5	-10.5	27.50	7.2
5	WR47	Isaiah McKenzie	at NE	43.5	-4.0	23.75	9.6
5	WR48	Van Jefferson	vs SEA	40.5	7.0	16.75	7.7
5	WR49	DeAndre Carter	at LV	49.5	1.0	24.25	9.0
5	WR50	Jarvis Landry	at TB	40.5	3.5	18.50	8.1
5	WR51	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	at CIN	53.0	-2.0	27.50	8.0
5	WR52	Demarcus Robinson	vs DEN	39.5	-9.5	24.50	6.2
5	WR53	Julio Jones	vs NO	40.5	-3.5	22.00	8.5
5	WR54	Alec Pierce	at DAL	44.5	10.5	17.00	6.9
5	WR55	Olamide Zaccheaus	vs PIT	42.0	1.0	20.50	7.3
5	WR56	D.J. Chark Jr.	vs JAC	51.0	-1.0	26.00	6.5
5	WR57	Devin Duvernay	vs DEN	39.5	-9.5	24.50	9.2
5	WR58	Corey Davis	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	8.5
5	WR59	Marvin Jones Jr.	at DET	51.0	1.0	25.00	8.0
5	WR60	DeVante Parker	vs BUF	43.5	4.0	19.75	6.9
6	WR61	Skyy Moore	at CIN	53.0	-2.0	27.50	2.9
6	WR62	Randall Cobb	at CHI	44.5	-3.5	24.00	8.4
6	WR63	Robert Woods	at PHI	44.5	4.5	20.00	6.5
6	WR64	Elijah Moore	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	5.4
6	WR65	Jahan Dotson	at NYG	40.5	-2.5	21.50	8.2
6	WR66	Kendall Hinton	at BAL	39.5	9.5	15.00	5.7
6	WR67	Kalif Raymond	vs JAC	51.0	-1.0	26.00	6.2
6	WR68	Chris Moore	vs CLE	47.5	7.0	20.25	7.0
6	WR69	Richie James Jr.	vs WAS	40.5	2.5	19.00	6.3
6	WR70	Nelson Agholor	vs BUF	43.5	4.0	19.75	6.9
6	WR71	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	at PHI	44.5	4.5	20.00	6.4
6	WR72	Marquise Goodwin	at LAR	40.5	-7.0	23.75	7.1
6	WR73	DeSean Jackson	vs DEN	39.5	-9.5	24.50	6.0
6	WR74	Quez Watkins	vs TEN	44.5	-4.5	24.50	5.3
6	WR75	K.J. Osborn	vs NYJ	44.5	-3.0	23.75	5.9
6	WR76	Justin Watson	at CIN	53.0	-2.0	27.50	4.1
6	WR77	Jauan Jennings	vs MIA	46.5	-4.0	25.25	5.7
7	WR78	Noah Brown	vs IND	44.5	-10.5	27.50	7.0
7	WR79	Damiere Byrd	vs PIT	42.0	1.0	20.50	6.3
7	WR80	Phillip Dorsett II	vs CLE	47.5	7.0	20.25	3.2
7	WR81	Ben Skowronek	vs SEA	40.5	7.0	16.75	5.6
7	WR82	David Bell	at HOU	47.5	-7.0	27.25	3.7
7	WR83	Tutu Atwell	vs SEA	40.5	7.0	16.75	4.1
7	WR84	Trent Sherfield	at SF	46.5	4.0	21.25	5.3
7	WR85	Jamal Agnew	at DET	51.0	1.0	25.00	5.3
7	WR86	Denzel Mims	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	4.2
7	WR87	Josh Reynolds	vs JAC	51.0	-1.0	26.00	10.5
7	WR88	Dante Pettis	vs GB	44.5	3.5	20.50	4.0
7	WR89	Romeo Doubs	at CHI	44.5	-3.5	24.00	8.8
7	WR90	Isaiah Hodgins	vs WAS	40.5	2.5	19.00	6.1
7	WR91	Kenny Golladay	vs WAS	40.5	2.5	19.00	1.8
7	WR92	Equanimeous St. Brown	vs GB	44.5	3.5	20.50	3.7
7	WR93	Rashid Shaheed	at TB	40.5	3.5	18.50	5.9
7	WR94	Kendrick Bourne	vs BUF	43.5	4.0	19.75	4.0
7	WR95	Byron Pringle	vs GB	44.5	3.5	20.50	2.8
7	WR96	Braxton Berrios	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	4.1
7	WR97	Tyquan Thornton	vs BUF	43.5	4.0	19.75	5.4
7	WR98	Keelan Cole Sr.	vs LAC	49.5	-1.0	25.25	1.9
7	WR99	Zach Pascal	vs TEN	44.5	-4.5	24.50	2.9
7	WR100	Tre'Quan Smith	at TB	40.5	3.5	18.50	5.7
7	WR101	Brandon Johnson	at BAL	39.5	9.5	15.00	5.1
7	WR102	Steven Sims Jr.	at ATL	42.0	-1.0	21.50	1.5

Tier 1 – Amon-Ra St. Brown

The Sun God makes his first top-five appearance of the season with everything aligning in his favor.

First, his utilization remains elite, and St. Brown is a target-earning machine. He averages 34% of the targets in healthy games, and his 32% TPRR ranks No. 2 behind Tyreek Hill. The Lions constantly put him in motion and move him all over the formation to create mismatches – 54% of his snaps come from the slot.

Second, the Jaguars have the third-worst PFF coverage grade and allow the eighth-most receiving yards per game (285) in non-overtime play.

Third, the game environment is perfect, with the second-highest game total, and the Lions have a top-six team total.

St. Brown is a SMASH top-five option in Week 13.

Tier 2 – Christian Kirk

Kirk delivered a fantasy dud last week (WR60), but his underlying data was still strong. He posted a 22% target share, rarely leaving the field. Amazingly, he has posted a sub-22% target share only two times all season.

Week	Routes	TPRR	Targets	ADOT	Air Yards	EZ Tgts	3rd/4th Down Targets	PA Targets	PPR
1	92%	24%	28%	12.9	34%	0%	20%	20%	17.7
2	94%	21%	20%	7.2	22%	0%	17%	33%	25.8
3	98%	21%	22%	7.5	29%	20%	17%	13%	19.2
4	93%	35%	41%	8.9	50%	0%	50%	11%	8.3
5	98%	6%	7%	21.7	13%	33%	9%	33%	1.5
6	100%	18%	32%	6.3	43%	50%	25%	25%	12.8
7	98%	23%	24%	12.7	26%	0%	23%	10%	17.1
8	90%	22%	25%	7.7	35%	0%	0%	29%	7.0
9	94%	26%	29%	8.6	37%	100%	40%	13%	21.6
10	94%	22%	28%	11.0	41%	67%	18%	30%	31.5
12	95%	20%	22%	7.3	25%	0%	25%	13%	8.1
YTD	96%	21%	24%	9.7	29%	21%	21%	20%	15.5

The fifth-year WR is on pace for 1,120 yards and 11 TDs, proving to be worth his free agent contract that some considered too large.

This week, he faces off against the Lions and will try to outduel Amon-Ra St. Brown as the top slot WR in the contest. Detroit has the fourth-lowest PFF coverage grade (49.6) and allows the fourth-most receiving yards per game (271) in non-overtime.

The Jaguars have the No. 4 team total on the slate in a game brimming with shootout potential.

Kirk moves into low-end WR1 territory and is an absolute SMASH play.

Tier 3 – Deebo Samuel

Samuel has been struggling since the addition of Christian McCaffrey in Week 7. He was garnering 27% of the targets on average before the arrival of CMC, but that number has plummeted to 19% over Samuel’s last four contests.

Week	Routes	TPRR	Targets	ADOT	Air Yards	EZ Tgts	3rd/4th Down Targets	PA Targets	PPR
1	94%	18%	23%	2.3	7%	0%	10%	17%	14.6
2	90%	23%	24%	-0.2	-1%	0%	18%	20%	14.7
3	89%	28%	29%	7.0	23%	0%	29%	25%	12.9
4	93%	27%	29%	1.9	9%	0%	30%	14%	23.7
5	89%	28%	30%	10.4	36%	100%	11%	63%	11.2
6	84%	29%	25%	7.5	25%	0%	20%	10%	16.0
7	82%	14%	14%	5.7	10%	0%	0%	33%	8.4
10	87%	15%	17%	2.5	6%	0%	20%	0%	7.1
11	77%	41%	32%	3.0	15%	0%	25%	0%	22.4
12	92%	14%	14%	1.8	4%	33%	15%	20%	7.3
YTD	81%	23%	21%	4.7	13%	19%	16%	21%	13.8

The playmaking WR missed Week 8 with a hamstring issue and was on the injury report again in Week 12, which could also be a factor. However, he and McCaffrey appear to be battling for the same targets – Samuel operates primarily underneath (4.7 ADOT) as a run-after-the-catch maven. McCaffrey has an ADOT of 1.7.

Samuel still has boom potential, as we saw in Week 11, with a 32% target share and 22.4 fantasy points. However, his early-season target domination appears to be over.

This weekend’s game against Miami could be the weekend's best matchup, with the 49ers needing to open things up. San Francisco has the sixth-best team total, but the Dolphins secondary has played much better over the last four contests, sporting a top-five EPA pass defense.

Miami plays man coverage the second-most (40%), and historically, Samuel isn’t a lead option in that scenario. His TPRR drops from 25% against zone to 12% against man.

Samuel is questionable due to a quad injury and is a boom-bust WR3.

Additional WR Notes & Movers:

Tier 2 – A.J. Brown faces a Titans defense that allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game (84) in non-overtime play but gives up the second-most receiving yards (281), which could force the run-heavy Eagles to air it out more. Brown has a 28% target share on the season, and the offense is currently without Dallas Goedert. This is a blowup spot for Brown, who is a top-seven option.
Tier 2 – Keenan Allen and the Chargers project for a shootout affair with a top-three game total. The Raiders have the worst EPA pass defense and allow 262 yards per game (seventh-most) in non-overtime. Allen moves into high-end WR2 territory.
Tier 3 – DeVonta Smith has target shares of 31%, 39%, and 33% over the last three contests. With Dallas Goedert out, he has benefited the most and is due for a monster finish. As noted with A.J. Brown, the Titans are a pass-funnel defense. Smith is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside and ranks eight spots ahead of expert consensus.
Tier 3 – Brandon Aiyuk faces a Dolphins coverage unit that has morphed into a top-five EPA pass defense over the last month. However, the 49ers love to look Aiyuk’s way against man coverage (28% TPRR) and Miami ranks No. 2 in the percentage of plays in man (40%). Aiyuk is a low-end WR2.
Tier 3 – Christian Watson is due for regression thanks to his six TDs over the last three games, but he is also earning targets at a higher rate than any other Packer (24%) – because he is good. His speed means he can score from anywhere. He can beat you over the top or catch the ball underneath and take it to the house. The Bears have the fifth-worst PFF coverage grade (54.9) and lost their starting safety. Buckle up. Watson is a low-end WR2 that can break the slate.

Tight End

Tier	Pos Rank	Player	Opp	Game Total	Spread	Team Total	PPG
1	TE1	Travis Kelce	at CIN	53.0	-2.0	27.50	21.7
2	TE2	Mark Andrews	vs DEN	39.5	-9.5	24.50	14.5
2	TE3	T.J. Hockenson	vs NYJ	44.5	-3.0	23.75	12.4
3	TE4	Pat Freiermuth	at ATL	42.0	-1.0	21.50	10.5
3	TE5	Dalton Schultz	vs IND	44.5	-10.5	27.50	8.9
3	TE6	George Kittle	vs MIA	46.5	-4.0	25.25	11.4
4	TE7	Gerald Everett	at LV	49.5	1.0	24.25	9.0
4	TE8	Hayden Hurst	vs KC	53.0	2.0	25.50	8.8
4	TE9	Foster Moreau	vs LAC	49.5	-1.0	25.25	7.8
4	TE10	Cole Kmet	vs GB	44.5	3.5	20.50	7.8
4	TE11	Dawson Knox	at NE	43.5	-4.0	23.75	7.8
4	TE12	Greg Dulcich	at BAL	39.5	9.5	15.00	8.1
4	TE13	Tyler Conklin	at MIN	44.5	3.0	20.75	8.6
4	TE14	Evan Engram	at DET	51.0	1.0	25.00	7.3
4	TE15	Harrison Bryant	at HOU	47.5	-7.0	27.25	5.2
5	TE16	Tyler Higbee	vs SEA	40.5	7.0	16.75	9.1
5	TE17	Robert Tonyan	at CHI	44.5	-3.5	24.00	7.2
5	TE18	Hunter Henry	vs BUF	43.5	4.0	19.75	6.1
5	TE19	Logan Thomas	at NYG	40.5	-2.5	21.50	5.8
5	TE20	Austin Hooper	at PHI	44.5	4.5	20.00	5.6
5	TE21	Mike Gesicki	at SF	46.5	4.0	21.25	6.8
5	TE22	Taysom Hill	at TB	40.5	3.5	18.50	8.5
5	TE23	Juwan Johnson	at TB	40.5	3.5	18.50	8.0
5	TE24	Noah Fant	at LAR	40.5	-7.0	23.75	6.6
6	TE25	Jordan Akins	vs CLE	47.5	7.0	20.25	6.8
6	TE26	Kylen Granson	at DAL	44.5	10.5	17.00	4.5
6	TE27	Daniel Bellinger	vs WAS	40.5	2.5	19.00	8.2
6	TE28	Will Dissly	at LAR	40.5	-7.0	23.75	6.7
6	TE29	Isaiah Likely	vs DEN	39.5	-9.5	24.50	5.6
6	TE30	Cade Otton	vs NO	40.5	-3.5	22.00	6.0
6	TE31	Cameron Brate	vs NO	40.5	-3.5	22.00	4.2
6	TE32	Jonnu Smith	vs BUF	43.5	4.0	19.75	5.0
6	TE33	Jelani Woods	at DAL	44.5	10.5	17.00	7.2
7	TE34	Brock Wright	vs JAC	51.0	-1.0	26.00	3.6
7	TE35	Chigoziem Okonkwo	at PHI	44.5	4.5	20.00	3.7
7	TE36	Jack Stoll	vs TEN	44.5	-4.5	24.50	1.5

Tier 3 – Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth has the No. 1 TPRR on the Steelers at 24%, which is saying something considering Diontae Johnson’s proven track record to earn targets. The second-year TE’s TPRR ranks No. 3 in the NFL behind only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, and he ranks fourth in YPRR (1.76).

This weekend, he draws a matchup against a bottom-seven PFF coverage unit in the Falcons. Atlanta allows the sixth-most receiving yards per game (265) in non-regulation play. They have given up 656 yards (sixth-most) to the TE position, allowing the sixth-most open targets (66%).

Freiermuth is a top-five option in Week 13.

Additional TE Notes & Movers:

Tier 4 – Harrison Bryant will start for David Njoku who will miss Week 13 due to a knee injury. Bryant is not your normal second-string TE – he has demonstrated an ability to earn targets. The third-year TE has six 20%-plus TPRR outings this season. If he has one of those performances in a full-time role, he could smash expectations. Bryant is a high-end TE2.

Dwain McFarland

Dwain is the Lead Fantasy Analyst and Director of Analytics of Fantasy Life. He is best known for the Utilization Report, which led to his first full-time role in the industry at Pro Football Focus. Dwain’s experience and background have helped him craft a unique voice in the fantasy football community. He has placed highly in multiple national season-long contests, including three top-five finishes at the FFPC. Before beginning his fantasy career in 2018, Dwain led product strategy and data and analytics teams for one of the largest healthcare improvement companies in the nation.

@dwainmcfarland