Table of Contents
  1. Last Saturday night was not so Purdy for Mr. Purdy
  2. Purdy's splits without Deebo are not great, Bob!
  3. Style points don't count for extra
  4. What can we expect from Purdy in the NFC Championship game?

To say that opinions vary on second-year 49ers QB Brock Purdy is a vast understatement. There have been almost as many debates about Purdy as there have been about the dress.

It’s easy for Purdy truthers to simply point to his overwhelming on-field success thus far:

  • The man has gone an impressive 20-5 as a starter in his young career, and his only postseason loss last year was due to injury.
  • Purdy’s career average of 9.2 yards per pass attempt (YPA) and 113.0 passer rating thus far are the highest marks of any QB with 500-plus pass attempts in NFL history.
  • Since Purdy took over in Week 13 of last season, the 49ers have led the league in EPA per play (+0.152), yards per play (6.5), and total offensive TDs (83).

Even Purdy’s biggest critics can’t deny that San Francisco's offense deserves an A+ group grade over the last two seasons. The question is simply whether or not Purdy deserves the majority of the credit for their success or if Kyle Shanahan and a talented core of offensive skill-position players have carried Purdy on this group project.

After all, we saw Jimmy Garoppolo have stints of success in Shanahan's offensive scheme not so long ago, even having gotten them to a Super Bowl. Because of that, many have compared Purdy to Garoppolo. Others have compared Purdy to Tom Brady due to a similar lack of draft capital and immediate success as an overlooked backup QB who stepped into a starting role.

So where does Purdy rank on a scale of Jimmy Garoppolo to Tom Brady?

Like most debates, the answer probably lies somewhere in between.

Last Saturday night was not so Purdy for Mr. Purdy

The 49ers’ win over the Packers wasn’t supposed to be close. After all, San Francisco was a well-rested No. 1 seed that opened as a 10-point home favorite against a Green Bay defense that ranked a mediocre 22nd in EPA allowed per play during the regular season.

While Jordan Love’s decision to go full Brett Favre ultimately secured the victory for the 49ers, it was hard to ignore just how rough Purdy had looked for the majority of the evening. We’re talking “multiple dropped INTs that will probably keep Packers fans sleepless for a few nights” level of rough.

There were some good plays from Purdy like the TD to George Kittle, deep out to Chris Conley, and dime down the middle to Jauan Jennings, but there was certainly more bad than good from him against the Packers.

But in his defense, there were mitigating factors to Purdy's poor performance. Deebo Samuel exited the game early on after suffering a shoulder injury. Mother Nature was a factor as well, as Purdy took his glove off after just one drive and later dried off his hands mid-dropback in the constant rain.

Either way, 49ers fans shouldn’t really care. Purdy played his best when it mattered most late in the game and got them the win. San Francisco fans can even compare the final-drive heroics from Purdy to Joe Montana if they want.

However, modern society necessitates that we constantly rank and evaluate the individual players on football teams because we apparently can’t think of anything better to do as we spin around on a rock through the empty nothingness of space.

With that in mind…

Purdy's splits without Deebo are not great, Bob!

Purdy has looked awfully mortal in games without Deebo, his go-to guys, over the past two seasons. Here are Purdy's splits with and without Deebo:

  • With Deebo (19 games)
    • +0.362 EPA per dropback
    • 87.2 Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass grade
    • 119.5 passer rating
    • 38-7 TD to INT rate
    • 9.4 YPA
    • 70.4% completion rate
  • Without Deebo (7 games)
    • +0.124 EPA per dropback
    • 65.4 PFF pass grade
    • 80.6 passer rate
    • 10-7 TD to INT ratio
    • 8.3 YPA
    • 62.9% completion rate

Purdy has clearly played worse in his seven games without Deebo, but to be fair, most QBs are less productive when they're missing key pieces of their surrounding offensive cast. It's also worth noting that All-World LT Trent Williams was sidelined in two of the games Purdy played without Deebo in 2023, so the absence of Williams may have compounded Purdy's splits.

Of course, credit shouldn’t only be given to Deebo. This whole offense is loaded. Overall, nobody has a higher average PFF rushing, receiving, pass blocking and run blocking grade than the 49ers (80.1) – everything except for passing.

Just one thing…

Style points don't count for extra

Picking up a lot of yards per pass attempt is kind of the main idea behind throwing the football. And somehow, Shanahan's scheme has found a way to produce three of the most efficient career passers in this very metric.

Here are the QBs with the most career YPA over the past 50 years (minimum 500 pass attempts):

That’s right. Three of the top-five most efficient QBs of the last 50 years have played for Shanahan in San Francisco. Maybe, just maybe, the play-calling wizardry and surrounding cast of talented skill-position players have helped inflate these 49ers QBs' pass efficiency metrics.

<a target=

Jan 20, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Kenny Clark (97) pressures San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) in the third quarter in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports

Purdy deserves credit for making accurate, well-timed throws, but his detractors aren't wrong when they say that a lot of his big plays have been generated by yards after the catch from his pass-catchers.

In fact, no QB has averaged more yards after the catch per reception or on screens than the 49ers' QBs over the past two seasons. Purdy’s 8.9 YPA average on screens is over two full yards higher than that of any QB other than Ryan Tannehill (8.0) and C.J. Stroud (7.0).

On top of that, all three of Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle ranked top-15 in yards after the catch above expectation per reception this season per Next Gen Stats.

It’s not Purdy’s fault that his life has been made easier by Shanahan and the 49ers' weapons on offense. That said, it's still lazy analysis to simply say that Purdy is the same caliber of QB as Garoppolo.

There’s an off-script playmaking element to Purdy's skillset that neither Garoppolo nor Mullens possessed. Purdy's scramble-drill dropped TD to Aiyuk in last year’s Wild Card round and Week 17 magic to Aiyuk this year are two good examples.

It’s fair to be skeptical of Purdy's stats considering the scheme and talent around him, but context is needed to see that he's also played well and has factored into the 49ers' offensive success.

What can we expect from Purdy in the NFC Championship game?

On the one hand, bettors and DFS players alike probably shouldn’t expect the absolute best world-beating version of Purdy if Deebo is unable to play due to the shoulder injury.

On the other hand, it might not matter that much even if Deebo is out this weekend. The Lions' secondary has been rather bad all season, and it's shown in recent weeks. Here's how QBs have fared against Detroit's defense (or lack thereof) over their last five games:

Two organic Nick Mullens mentions in one column. Talk about a great day to be great.

The 49ers are currently seven-point favorites against the Lions and have the highest implied point total in the Conference Championship round with 29 points, so Vegas doesn’t seem too worried about San Francisco's offense regardless of Deebo's status.

After all, they still have Aiyuk and Kittle, not to mention another dynamic playmaker in Christian McCaffrey.

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January 20, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

However, another underwhelming performance in primetime with the world watching could perhaps lead to a 2024 discount in fantasy drafts for the reigning QB6 in fantasy points per game (minimum 10 starts):

At the end of the day, skepticism about Purdy’s standing among the elite QBs is warranted when discussing actual NFL QB play.

However, Purdy has clearly demonstrated over the last two seasons that San Francisco's scheme and surrounding talent cement him as a strong fantasy QB1 for at least the near future regardless of how and why that fantasy production is generated.

Only time will tell whether Purdy can bring another Lombardi trophy or more back to San Francisco. However, as it stands, Purdy can most definitely bring home a trophy for fantasy managers in 2024.

Can Purdy tame the Lions and get the 49ers back to the Super Bowl? You can bet on San Francisco at BetMGM, where you can also get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

Fantasy Football Report
Ian Hartitz
Ian Hartitz
Ian is a senior fantasy analyst at Fantasy Life and he truly believes every day is a great day to be great. He's spent time with Action Network, NBC Sports and Pro Football Focus over the years, writing and podcasting about all things fantasy football along the way. Ian's process relies on a mix of film analysis and data study; whatever is needed to get the job done (job done). There's no reason fun can't be had along the way — we do live on a rock floating around a ball of fire after all. Outside of football, Ian enjoys MMA, his dachshund Lilly and candles.
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