Fantasy Football Roundtable. Week 13 Expert Rankings vs. Consensus.
I can’t believe the fantasy regular season is almost over.
Well, actually, looking at the players on my roster, I can. Having strong starters is one thing. Honestly, it’s THE thing. But at this point, having healthy players in your lineup feels almost as secure. However, we’ve still got to come out on Tuesday with a win. There’s still about a month of action to go.
So, if you’ve got questions about who to start (who doesn’t?), we’ve got you covered. You already know about our rankings and projections. And for some play-specific analysis, look no further. Three of our best analysts sat down to go through their approach to some of the key players and how you should handle them for this week.
RB - De’Von Achane (Dolphins) at Commanders
Achane will return to the lineup in Week 13 against Washington on a slate where the Dolphins carry the highest team total (29.75) as 9.5-point favorites. His last outing ended with a whimper, only registering one attempt and one target before re-aggravating his MCL injury—which could spook some fantasy managers.
While there is some risk that Achane’s injury could limit his snaps or knock him out of the game early, it’s hard to ignore his ceiling. The rookie averages 34 points per contest in three games where he has played at least 40% of the snaps.
Achane doesn’t need 20 opportunities (combined attempts and targets) to score fantasy points. In Weeks 4 and 5, he scored 27 and 24 points on 12 and 13 opportunities, respectively.
I currently have Achane ranked the highest among Fantasy Life rankers, but the gap will likely close as updates are made based on the news.
Achane is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside and is a top-30 flex option despite the injury and workload risks.
RB - Devin Singletary (Texans) vs. Broncos
Fantasy points have funneled through the ground game against a much-improved Broncos defense over recent weeks, and the Texans have shown a willingness to attack the weakness of their opponents. Since Week 8, they have run the ball against bad run defenses and passed against bad pass defenses.
With the Broncos allowing the most yards per game on the ground (150), it makes sense to like the Texans' ground game in Week 13. However, while Singletary held onto a large snap share in Week 12 (81%), he split rushing attempts almost evenly with Dameon Pierce.
We could see a more prominent role for Pierce in his second game back, creating concerns for Singletary. Last weekend, Singletary only had six rushing attempts but bailed fantasy managers out with an uncharacteristic seven targets. Dalton Schultz won’t play in Week 13, which could keep Singletary slightly more involved in the underneath passing attack, but Tank Dell and Nico Collins should easily lead the team.
Singletary is a top-50 flex play for me in Week 13, but I have him ranked five spots below Fantasy Life consensus.
RB - Travis Etienne (Jaguars) vs. Bengals
I’m the highest ranker on Etienne, putting him below only Christian McCaffrey as my RB2.
In the first eight weeks of the season, Etienne put up 849 yards and eight TDs (with two 2-point conversions) on 18.9 carries and 4.4 targets per game with an 81% snap rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
But in the three weeks since the bye, Etienne has 189 scoreless yards on 14.3 carries and 4.3 targets per game with a 62% snap rate. His decline in usage is concerning.
This week, though, Etienne could have 20-plus touches with multiple goal-line opportunities as a sizable home favorite against the Bengals, who might be without LB Logan Wilson (ankle) after he exited Week 12 with an injury.
RB - Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs. Cardinals
I’m the highest ranker on Warren: He’s my RB16 this week.
Nov 19, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) runs with the ball past Cleveland Browns linebacker Sione Takitaki (44) during the second half at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Warren has a capped ceiling in his committee with Najee Harris, and he disappointed last week with just 62 scoreless yards and a lost fumble. Still, he at least had 13 carries and three targets, and since the Week 6 bye, he has 59 carries and 20 targets, which he has leveraged into 499 yards and three TDs in six games.
I expect him to see a similar workload as a home favorite against the Cardinals, who are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.6).
RB - Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) vs. Commanders
Is being the second-highest-scoring RB in fantasy football a bad thing? Does 20-plus touches in each of the last two weeks just not do it enough for you anymore? The clear-cut lead back in the league’s second-highest-ranked scoring offense implied to score a week-high 29.5 points as a 9.5-point favorite against the league’s single-worst scoring defense? WHAT IS ENOUGH FOR YOU PEOPLE?
Alright, sorry, I wasn’t yelling at YOU, just the other so-called “expert” rankers we have here at Fantasy Life. Still love you guys—but ranking Raheem Mostert outside the position’s top 10 options (on a week with six teams on bye, mind you) is a criminal offense.
Sure, Mostert has just one top-12 performance in his last five games, but his utilization and offensive environment remain tough to complain about.
Fire up Mostert in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes. Fellow anytime TD parlay-ers should also feel comfortable firing up the lead back of an offense fully expected to blow up against a defense that literally just fired their defensive coordinator. Washington has allowed at least 30 points in *seven* games this season—no other unit has more than five.
WR - Amari Cooper (Browns) vs. Rams
Hilariously: Joe Flacco has a chance to save Cooper’s fantasy value down the stretch in the year 2023. The 38-year-old veteran was last seen … kind of putting up decent numbers with the Jets in the beginning of 2022?
- Week 1: 309 pass yards-1 TD-1 INT
- Week 2: 307-4-0 (!)
- Week 3: 285-0-2
Yes, there was also a Week 18 stinker (149-0-0) in there, but clearly Flacco was still capable of putting up some yardage through the air—even if plenty came down on the scoreboard (he averaged 52 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1 to 3).
So yes, Flacco could actually help things—because the bar literally could not be lower. Whether it be Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion), or P.J. Walker, Cleveland has offered arguably the single-worst passing environment for its pass-catchers in fantasy land this season.
Browns team passing marks:
- PFF pass grade: 46.5 (32nd)
- Yards per attempt: 5.7 (31st)
- Adjusted completion rate: 67.8% (32nd)
- Passer rating: 66.0 (32nd)
Overall, no offense has had a lower rate of catchable passes than the Browns (71%) this season. Not great!
Check out the late Friday edition of The Fantasy Life Podcast for an injury update on Cooper (ribs) and the rest of the week’s banged-up fantasy assets—but it’s possible that the likes of Coop, David Njoku, and maybe even Flacco’s former teammate Elijah Moore get going just a bit in upcoming matchups against beatable secondaries in the Rams, Jaguars, and Bears.
Don’t get it twisted: None of these pass-catchers deserve must-start treatment by any stretch of the imagination, but I’ve heard worse ideas than targeting them in DFS formats as likely low-owned and low-cost options.
