NFL Free Agency: Austin Ekeler joining the Commanders.
Austin Ekeler: Welcome to Washington.
The softest contract of day one's big-name RB signings goes to the longtime fantasy monster, although reuniting with former Chargers head coach/current Commanders run-game coordinator Anthony Lynn could have played a role in the discount.
The good: Ekeler has worked as one of the game’s most productive RBs over the last half-decade:
- 2019: 19.3 PPR points per game (RB6)
- 2020: 16.5 (RB9)
- 2021: 21.5 (RB3)
- 2022: 21.9 (RB1)
- 2023: 13.2 (RB21)
The bad: Last season’s steep dropoff in production was far from ideal.
Still, it’s worth wondering just how much of an issue his Week 1 high ankle sprain wound up being. We've all seen the long run against the Packers when he reached just 13 miles per hour, but he looked plenty spry before the injury, notably hitting 19.6 miles per hour on this screen.
The 28-year-old veteran isn’t a spring chicken at this point, but historically RBs haven’t really fallen off the fantasy mountain until after their age 30 season. Do 26-year-old veterans Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard REALLY deserve that much more benefit of the doubt when it comes to their down 2023 seasons than Ekeler?
The presence of Brian Robinson will likely limit Ekeler's touch count (head coach Dan Quinn is a fan), but then again, the longtime Chargers stud never had more than 206 rush attempts in a single season anyway: Ekeler's fantasy cheat code has always been his receiving volume and red zone usage – two features that seem to have as good a chance at persisting in Washington with Lynn as they would just about anywhere else.
Both Lynn as well as offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury have histories with enabling multiple productive RBs inside of the same offense:
- Lynn in 2019: Ekeler (RB6 in PPR points per game), Melvin Gordon (RB14)
- Kingsbury in 2020: Kenyan Drake (RB23) Chase Edmonds (RB32)
- Kingsbury in 2021: James Conner (RB8), Edmonds (RB26)
Two RBs putting up solid fantasy production is hardly unheard of in the modern NFL: An average of 1.9 offenses enabled multiple top-24 RBs in PPR points per game from 2013-2022.
It’s not a certainty that Ekeler will be on the right side of this upcoming two-back committee; just realize that both Kingsbury (13th in RB targets) and Lynn (2nd) led offenses that regularly FED the RB in the passing game – a role that is wide open in Washington after Antonio Gibson took his talents to New England.
It’d be terrifying to draft Ekeler as his usual first-round self in this new situation, but you don’t have to! Early Underdog ADP has the veteran sitting as the RB23, a few spots ahead of Robinson (RB26). A late seventh-round pick isn’t too steep of a price for someone *checks notes* 12 months removed from winning fantasy football leagues around the globe.
Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP: Ekeler’s pass-catching chops remain immensely valuable in full-PPR settings and warrant strong mid-round fantasy consideration in his new home.
