NFL Injury Updates: What To Watch For In Fantasy Football

Getting back into the swing of fantasy football season isn’t easy. A lot of time has passed since the end of December, and it’s easy to forget small details in the heat of the moment.

This specifically applies to injuries. There’s no worse feeling than believing you, a scholar, have undercovered a true gem … only to find out that you just unknowingly drafted some dude already expected to miss significant time next season.

Good news: Today’s goal is to familiarize ourselves with updates and prognoses on all the key outstanding injuries that took place last season.

This isn’t a perfect science — last season Brock Purdy’s elbow surgery largely went better than expected while Tony Pollard was expected to be at full strength “well before training camp” — but at a minimum, it’ll help us better discern the level of risk associated with taking on one of these banged-up players.

I leaned on the advice and tweets of the following four real-life doctors who also routinely provide excellent fantasy-relevant injury information.

• Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc)
• Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept)
• Jesse Morse, MD (@drjessemorse)
• Deepak Chona, MD (@SportMDAnalysis)

Thank you to the real MVPs — you should probably shoot them a follow.

What follows are 13 players who seem to be actively at risk of missing time or at least entering Week 1 of next season at less than 100%.

Free Agent QB Kirk Cousins (right Achilles) and Jets QB Aaron Rodgers (left Achilles)

Don’t underestimate the difference here. 

Cousins (36 in August) could be looking at a recovery more similar to Dan Marino, who noted, “It was a very tedious rehab. It didn’t actually heal all the way, so I had to deal with not being able to get up on my toe for the rest of my career.”

Of course, Marino threw for 4,453 yards and 30 TD just one season removed from tearing his Achilles, and it’d make sense if modern medicine 30 (!) years in the future is a bit superior to what players were working with in the 90s.

Still: It’d make a lot of sense if Cousins really has to work to get his usual throwing power back. It’s good news that he’s already throwing again, but multiple doctors have stated a decrease in arm strength is possible even while admitting that a Week 1 return is realistic.

Let’s face it: 2023’s high-end efficiency wasn’t exactly the norm for the veteran signal-caller since he arrived in Minnesota.

• 2018: -0.012 EPA per dropback (No. 29 among qualified QBs)
• 2019: +0.199 (No. 7)
• 2020: +0.188 (No. 10)
• 2021: +0.137 (No. 10)
• 2022: +0.058 (No. 19)
• 2023: +0.145 (No. 6)

And then there’s Rodgers, who turned 40 in December and also isn’t guaranteed to be at his best come Week 1 of next season. That said: A-aron was believed to have a realistic chance of participating (at far less than 100%) in January; he’ll be well within the usual Achilles rupture timetable of nine to 12 months by the time next September rolls around.

Bottom line: Both Cousins and Rodgers should be ready to start by Week 1, but there’s more concern about Cousins’ return to full strength.

Giants QB Daniel Jones (knee)

A Week 1 return from this torn ACL is “possible but not guaranteed” according to Dr. Chona. Additionally, he notes that we should expect decreased rushing output in 2024. There also might be some neck issues that still need to be solved here.

Any decrease in Jones’ rushing production would be detrimental to his 2024 fantasy upside.

Most fantasy points per game from purely rushing production 2022-2023 (min. 10 starts):

1. Jalen Hurts (9.5)
2. Justin Fields (9)
3. Josh Allen (7.9)
4. Lamar Jackson (7.4)
5. Jones (6.3)

Meanwhile, Jones ranks 39th among 42 QBs in fantasy points per game from purely passing production (10.1) during this span. The former No. 6 overall pick hasn’t exactly been blessed with the world’s most friendly offensive environment, but his bottom-five marks in EPA per dropback (-0.211, 44th) and yards per attempt (5.7, 45th) were truly damning last season considering both Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito posted superior efficiency across the board inside of the same offense.

Oct 8, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) scrambles with the ball agianst the Miami Dolphins during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

There are already plenty of rumors about the Giants exploring a QB with the sixth overall pick. Even if they go elsewhere with that selection, it wouldn’t be shocking if they use one of their additional top 50 picks on the position fresh off ranking *checks notes* 31st in passing yards last season.

Bottom line: Jones isn’t likely to be at 100% as a rusher by Week 1, badly hurting his chances of holding off any sort of real potential competition that could be added this offseason.

Browns RB Nick Chubb (knee)

Sam Sherman’s excellent PUP-candidate breakdown over at Establish The Run featured Dr. Porras stating that 10 months may be the minimum return-to-play timeline for Chubb’s specific injury, as opposed to nine months for a clean tear.

This sentiment is echoed by other learned doctors: Chubb’s multi-ligament injury required two separate surgeries and places him in uncharted territory. 

While there is some hope for a “full recovery” by Week 1, this injury could be a true issue for Chubb in the longterm even if he does manage to get back to looking like 90% of his usual baller self in 2024. Of course, many RBs would LOVE to simply be 90% as good as Chubb; just realize this could be problematic to his fantasy upside considering the Browns haven’t exactly handed him the world’s most fantasy-friendly role over the years:

• 2022: RB18 in expected PPR points per game, RB8 in real PPR points per game
• 2021: RB20 expected, RB12 real
• 2020: RB28 expected, RB9 real

There is some level of possibility that the Browns move on from Chubb; they can save $11.8 million against the cap while taking on “just” $4 million in dead money if they release the four-time Pro Bowler.  This reality would make it tougher to envision a resounding comeback szn performance in 2024 considering the rather rough history of higher-priced RBs changing teams in free agency.

Bottom line: This looks far more aligned with the “Javonte Williams” level of concern than “Breece Hall” from last season. Expect severely reduced efficiency even if Chubb manages to avoid starting the season on the PUP list.

Incoming Rookie RB Jonathan Brooks (knee)

Arguably the incoming RB1, Brooke had surgery to repair a torn ACL back in early December. Using a basic nine-to-11-month recovery timeline would lead to a glass-half-full return in September … or potentially November if things don’t go exactly according to plan.

Good news: Dr. Dan Cooper projects Brooks to be cleared by training camp.

Of course, this 7.5-month timeline seems awfully optimistic. Being ready to participate in individual drills in August is very different from ramping up toward a full workload in Week 1.

Bottom line: Brooks is far from guaranteed to be at 100% by the time September rolls around. This doesn’t make him a must-fade option — don’t hate the player, hate the ADP — but early-season expectations should be kept in check.

Free Agent RB J.K. Dobbins (Achilles)

Dobbins could very well be on track to return in Week 1 next season, but a decrease in performance is expected. Note that Dobbins suffered a brutal multi-ligament knee injury in August 2021 as well.

The recent history of RBs coming back from Achilles injuries simply hasn’t been good:

• Tarik Cohen: Hasn’t returned to football.
• James Robinson: Has been on five different teams over the last 12 months, never managing to earn a role along the way.
• Justice Hill: One of the better case studies; Hill has averaged a solid 4.9 yards per carry in two seasons since the injury and continues to offer upside as a pass-catcher.
• Cam Akers: Ranks 39th and 40th in yards and yards after contact per carry among 49 qualified RBs in two seasons since returning.
• Marlon Mack: Has bounced around four different teams over the past two years since parting ways with the Colts, failing to earn anything resembling a consistent role along the way.
• Isaiah Crowell: Hasn’t returned to football.
• D’Onta Foreman: Joins Hill as the two most encouraging cases, although even then we’re talking about an early-down committee piece who has typically just worked as a backup/handcuff in bad offenses over the years.
• Arian Foster: Averaged just 2.5 yards per carry before suffering another lower-body injury which led to his retirement.

Bottom line: Everyone is rooting for Dobbins to return to his electric self, but this seems like wishful thinking for at least 2024 — and accordingly it’s unlikely anyone readily signs up to give him a big contract and/or workhorse role.

Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell (knee)

This hyperextension and ACL tear was one of the more brutal-looking injuries of 2023, but there’s actually some reason for optimism here.

Dr. Chona notes that data suggests an October return is most likely and added that young RBs tend to see a ramp-up period in touches while experiencing an initial explosiveness dip. Good news: He expects a strong end of the season after likely seeing more of a committee role early.

Of course, it wasn’t like Mitchell was being overly featured in the first place. He never received double-digit carries in any of his eight games last season, leading to the explosive rookie being far more reliant on his extraterrestrial efficiency to rack up fantasy points than most:

Mitchell among 71 RBs with at least 45 carries in 2023

• PFF rush grade: 92.5 (No. 2)
• Yards per carry: 8.4 (No. 1)
• Yards after contact per carry: 5.7 (No. 1)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.32 (No. 2)

Overall, Mitchell was just the RB58 in expected PPR points per game last season.

Bottom line: Mitchell’s expected ramp-up and potential early-season loss in efficiency make him unlikely to contribute too many fantasy fireworks until November and December roll around.

Free Agent RB Cam Akers (Achilles)

No RB to date that we know of in the NFL has returned from bilateral Achilles tears. It’s possible he will return by Week 1, but Dr. Chona believes there will likely be a significant performance dip throughout the entire 2024 season.

Tearing both Achilles in a two-and-a-half-year span is sadly unprecedented. Akers was dealing with bad efficiency before the latest tear; there’s not much reason to expect a return to 2020 form or for the 24-year-old veteran to get much of a chance to do so.

Bottom line: It’d be surprising if Akers is even a rotation piece inside of an NFL backfield in 2024, let alone someone capable of supplying fantasy-relevant production.

Chargers WR Mike Williams (knee)

Williams underwent surgery on October 26, 2023, meaning he’ll have 10.5 months to be cleared for Week 1. Dr. Mueller expects the longtime contested-catch artist to be ready by the start of the regular season, while NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport even reports that he should be good to go for training camp.

The 29-year-old veteran played between 13 and 16 games in every season from 2018 to 2022; the idea that Williams is “injury prone” always boiled more down to him routinely getting banged up while making absurd catches than the former No. 7 overall pick failing to suit up come game time.

Jan 3, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams (81) reacts after catching a pass for a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Antonio Hamilton (20) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, Williams’ injury is just one concern: He might be a cap casualty considering the Chargers can save $20 million while inheriting $12 million in dead money should they choose to release their longtime No. 2 WR.

Bottom line: Even a return to full health won’t change a likely philosophy shift toward a more run-heavy offense *if* Williams is lucky enough to continue playing alongside Justin Herbert. Throw in some warranted age cliff concerns, and it seems unlikely that Williams will boom in a meaningful way in 2024.

Free Agent WR Kendrick Bourne (knee)

Similar to Williams: It’s realistic to believe Bourne will be ready for Week 1 considering he got the surgery done in mid-November.

Also similar to Williams: Bourne will be 29 when the season starts and might have to find a new employer depending on how free agency goes.

Nobody is actively expecting Bourne to work as someone’s alpha No. 1 WR in 2024, but the veteran deserves credit for earning ESPN’s 14th-highest receiver score last season.

Bottom line: A better offensive environment could improve Bourne’s production in 2024 and beyond, although returning from this injury won’t help the typical downward slope WRs begin to face around this point of their career.

Broncos WR Tim Patrick (Achilles)

The timing of Patrick’s tear actually makes him likely to return by Week 1, but we should still expect to see his stats dip until late in the season. This is also another potential cap casualty situation, as the Broncos can save $9.5 million against the cap while taking on a little over $6 million in dead money by releasing the 30-year-old veteran at any point.

Bottom line: Betting on a thirtysomething WR rebounding in a major way coming off back-to-back brutal season-ending lower-body injuries while (likely) also being forced to acclimate to a new offensive environment seems unwise. 

Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson (knee)

Hockenson was putting together the most productive season of his career before tearing both his ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve. His 1/29/24 surgery date won’t help his chances of returning by Week 1.

Both Dr. Morse and Dr. Mueller believe Hockenson could miss half of the 2024 season with an overall performance dip until 2025. Ninety percent of Hockenson would still be better than most TEs — he and Travis f*cking Kelce were the top two players at the position in PPR points per game last season after all — but there’s an added wild card here if Kirk Cousins (Achilles) also comes back at less than 100% next season.

Bottom line: Hockenson is expected to miss half of next season and could struggle to provide his usual production even upon returning, making him a VERY risky pick anywhere near the position’s top-12 options.

Rams TE Tyler Higbee (knee)

Like with Hockenson, the late-season nature of Higbee’s torn ACL is the primary problem here. Dr. Mueller believes the 31-year-old veteran will likely miss half of 2024 and could potentially only return as a rotational player.

The Rams would take on more dead money ($7.6 million) than they would save against the cap ($4.5 million) by releasing Higbee at any point this offseason, but either way he’s not someone fantasy managers or Rams fans should expect to be contributing in a meaningful way until at least November.

Bottom line: Higbee has never been relied on as a meaningful pass-game contributor when the Rams have had healthy WRs; don’t expect a lesser version of him to emerge as anything more than a potential late-season waiver wire streamer next season.

Yes, there are plenty more players also returning from injury in 2024. 

Also yes, our core group of doctors largely believes each of the following players will be operating at full strength by the time Week 1 rolls around. There are minimum fantasy concerns with the following players:

• Bengals QB Joe Burrow (wrist): Date strongly favors a return to full range of motion and grip strength. No long-term concerns and Burrow is fully expected to be back to 100% by Week 1.
• Browns QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder): Dr. Chona doesn’t expect any lingering impact, and Dr. Mueller believes Watson “should” be good to go for 2024. The Browns seem to share this optimism.
• Colts QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder): Both Dr. Morse and Dr. Chona believe Richardson will be 100% with no concerns for Week 1. Shoulder surgery is never ideal, but the most likely scenario is that everything works out.
• Chargers QB Justin Herbert (finger): Expected to regain full strength well before training camp and isn’t expected to have any lingering impact from the injury in 2024.
• Rams RB Kyren Williams (hand): Already had surgery to repair his broken hand and reported himself that it’s heeled. No concerns here.
• Free Agent RB Kareem Hunt (adductor): Impressively played through the pain last season and should be 100% by the preseason.
• Free Agent RB Damien Harris (neck): Should be full strength by Week 1 *if* the involved neck sprain didn’t involve the spine.
• Eagles WR A.J. Brown (knee): End-of-season MCL sprain isn’t expected to be a long-term issue.
• Chargers WR Keenan Allen (heel): Seemed like he probably could have played through the pain down the stretch had the Chargers been more competitive.
• Texans WR Tank Dell (leg): Dr. Morse believes Dell will be 100% with no issues for 2024. Dr. Chona also notes that data projects no lingering impact. Dr. Mueller adds Dell’s best return-to-play comp is Jaylen Waddle and not Tony Pollard.
• Bills WR Gabe Davis (knee): Sprained PCL made a January return tough, but Davis should be more than fine for the offseason and certainly Week 1.
• Raiders TE Michael Mayer (toe): Late-season turf toe shouldn’t impact his 2024 availability or performance.
• Panthers TE Hayden Hurst (head): Failed to return in 2023 while dealing with post-traumatic amnesia after suffering a concussion. That said: Hurst plans to return in 2024.