Regression Session. Top QB Regression Candidates for 2024.
What a season. It looked unlikely for most of the year but when we zoom out we shouldn’t be too surprised that Patrick Mahomes & Co. were able to turn it on when it mattered most and repeated as back-to-back champs. There’s a reason QB is considered the most important position across all sports and having a great one can make all the difference.
Throughout the season I have examined positive and negative regression candidates across RB, WR, and TE but have generally avoided writing about QBs. Well, today that changes as it’s time to dive into the QB position and take a look at the top regression candidates for the 2024 season.
Positive Regression
Dak Prescott
All things considered, it was a highly successful regular season for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Dak led the NFL in passing TDs (36) and finished third in passing yards (4,519) which helped propel Dallas to 12 wins and a division title. He finished as the QB3 in total points scored and didn’t miss a game which made him one of the best fantasy QBs to have in 2023.
At first glance, this doesn’t seem like the profile of a positive regression candidate, but the data suggests otherwise. According to the PFF Expected Points model, Dak actually underperformed in the TD department where his passing volume was projected to result in 41.4 passing TDs. It was the same story on the ground where his two rushing TDs were meaningfully below his expected rushing TD total of 4.7. In hindsight, a season with 45 total TDs was very much a realistic possible outcome for Prescott in 2023.
It’s also important to note that Dak’s great season wasn’t just due to a huge spike in passing volume that is unlikely to be repeated. His 590 pass attempts only rank as the third most in a single season in his career after he hit 596 pass attempts in just 16 games in both the 2019 and 2021 seasons. On a per-game basis, his 34.7 pass attempts rank only slightly above his full career average of 34.0.
With all of his primary pass-catchers likely to return and the same HC and OC in place, the Dallas offense shouldn’t look all that different in 2024 and there is always the chance they add another weapon through the NFL Draft or free agency. This setup suggests that Dak’s production is more likely to take a step forward than a step back which could make him a great value yet again in 2024.
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Bryce Young
I’m not going to lie to you, this one feels incredibly gross because Bryce Young was flat out bad in 2023. The stats and the eye test both back up the belief that the Panthers made a massive mistake in selecting Young over C.J. Stroud.
It’s unlikely that narrative will change in 2024, but that doesn’t mean Young won’t take a step forward. The Carolina Panthers were a complete dumpster fire in 2023 but that was only partially Young’s fault. The offensive scheme was uninspiring and the weapons that Young had to work with were the worst in the league.
Jan 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) before the game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Not too surprisingly, the results were extremely poor. Young ranked outside the top 40 QB (min 150 dropbacks) in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. He also threw just 11 TDs on 527 pass attempts. For reference, Joe Flacco threw 13 TDs on just 204 pass attempts.
It would be difficult to be less efficient than Young was in 2023. He led all QBs in fantasy points under expectation at -61.7 while Mac Jones was a distant second place at just -33.7 when referencing the PFF Expected Points model. I could go on but for the sake of Carolina fans let’s just agree that it was a season to forget.
Enter Dave Canales. The man widely credited with resurrecting the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield is the new head honcho in Carolina and will be overseeing the offense in 2024. Unfortunately, the Panthers don’t have their first-round pick, but they do have the 33rd overall pick and a decent amount of cap space to work on adding real weapons around their QB.
I’m fairly confident we saw the floor in 2023, so the only real question that remains is how much of a leap Young can take when playing in a better system with improved weapons around him.
Negative Regression
Jalen Hurts
The Eagles offense fell flat over the second half of the season and they exited the playoffs in embarrassing fashion, losing to the Buccaneers by three scores. Their star QB shouldered a lot of the blame as he threw a career high 15 interceptions and looked like a shell of the 2022 version of himself, particularly down the stretch. In Weeks 9 - 17 Jalen Hurts averaged just 207 passing yards per game and failed to throw a TD on three occasions, something he didn’t do once in his first eight games.
From a fantasy perspective, Hurts’ value was supported by the much debated ‘tush push’ which helped him punch in 15 rushing TDs on the season to lift him to the QB2 in total fantasy points. The Eagles have famously perfected this QB sneak on steroids and have converted at an astonishing clip of more than 90% in each of the last two seasons, well above the 77% success rate across the NFL. Of course, Hurts is a key component of that success, but so is Jason Kelce who is rumored to be retiring this offseason.
Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) looks to throw against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
While a rule change seems unlikely this offseason, there are a number of reasons to think the Eagles may run their signature play less often in 2024. A Kelce retirement seems like the most straightforward reason, but we also know that it takes defenses a couple seasons to catch up to the latest offensive trends and stopping the tush push has to be high on the priority list of DCs across the league.
There is also the potential that the Eagles decide to prioritize the health of their franchise QB after a season in which he battled injuries throughout. We have seen the Chiefs swear off QB sneaks for Mahomes in an effort to keep him healthy and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Eagles go a similar route, at least in the regular season.
Whatever the reason ends up being, a decline in the number of QB sneaks or their effectiveness all leads to the same outcome: fewer rushing TDs for Hurts.
Even if he bounces back as a passer, it will be hard to make up for all the fantasy points he has accumulated via rushing TDs over the past two seasons.
Brock Purdy
The Brock Purdy case is one the trickiest to analyze from a regression standpoint. He has proven to be an above-average passer and he plays in the most QB-friendly offense in the NFL. We should expect him to be more efficient than most QBs, but how much more efficient?
In 2023, Purdy led the NFL in TD rate (7.0%), yards per attempt (9.6), EPA per play (0.34), and CPOE (5.4%) and it wasn’t particularly close in any of those categories.
From a fantasy football perspective, Purdy also lapped the field when it comes to outperforming his expected fantasy points. Per the PFF Expected Points model, Purdy scored 80 more fantasy points than expected based on his utilization, no other QB even reached 30 points above expected for the season.
Of course, he does have elite weapons and one of the best offensive minds designing and calling the plays, but nearly tripling up the next closest QB in terms of fantasy points above expectation is one of the clearest negative regression signs we can have.
Lastly, we may have already gotten a glimpse at what a less efficient Purdy looks like during the final few weeks of the regular season and into the playoffs. Over his final five games (Week 16 through the Super Bowl) Purdy had just five passing TDs to go along with five INTs and only posted 7.5 yards per attempt which was well below his 9.2 yards per attempt for the full season plus playoffs.
Opposing defenses seem to have figured out a way to at least slow down the San Francisco offensive juggernaut. Unless they decide to air it out next season and let Purdy throw the ball a lot more than he has so far, it is going to be very difficult to replicate the passing efficiency and fantasy points that we saw from Purdy this season.
