Optimal Roster Construction. How To Draft QBs in Fantasy.
Roster construction is a multi-faceted topic that we often overcomplicate.
What’s better? A 2-6-7-3 build or a 3-5-8-2?
Should I take my Week 17 correlation stack or address another position of need in the later rounds?
Can you draft three QBs and three TEs on the same team and expect to survive at RB and WR!?!?
The answer to these questions is everyone’s least favorite: it depends.
We hate that answer because it isn’t a silver-bullet solution, and honestly, most folks just want to rip some drafts and have a shot to sweat a big payday when Week 17 rolls around.
Fortunately, there are some simple concepts we can utilize to create an actionable framework that allows us to adapt our plans and structures while we draft without a 50-page flowchart:
- Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League formats can be a significant driver here. For example, on Underdog, starting caliber WRs go quickly.
- Value: Can I target mispriced assets at this position later? These can become pillars for your 2023 build strategies.
- Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will spend later and vice versa.
Of course, every year is different due to ADP trends that impact how we view each.
Last season, if you targeted Josh Jacobs as a value (ADP 71.3), the strategy of waiting on RBs would have paid off in a huge way. He went completely ham AND multiple early-round RB options bombed (i.e., Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, etc.).
That combination of events created a MONSTER advantage for Jacobs drafters—no other player carried a higher regular season advance rate on Underdog than Jacobs at 46%. However, if you built that same strategy around A.J. Dillon (ADP 64.5), you weren’t quite as happy with your 14% advance rate.
Today, we will dive into QBs and work our way through each of the concepts above while accounting for the context of 2023 ADP trends for Underdog contests so you can optimize your builds.
Supply and demand
QBs are going earlier than ever on Underdog. The prices have cooled some lately, but the top eight are still going 16.3 spots ahead of 2022 on average.
However, drafters do eventually turn their attention to other needs – from QB9 to QB30, the position is only up 1.6 spots year over year.
Additionally, there is an area from QB9 to QB14 where the position is actually down in price (- 5.0), creating a sweet spot for value on names like Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, and Daniel Jones.
QB strategy overview
We want exposure to the elite QBs, but the opportunity costs are significant at the end of Round 2 and in early Round 3. Given these factors, I am only grabbing the elite QBs when they fall past ADP—even if I have already set up the stack with my first-round pick (i.e., Travis Kelce and Mahomes).
When the value doesn’t fall to us on the top three QBs, there are multiple easy pivots, so there is no need to panic. Just breathe and continue reading.
Building pillars – values
Lamar Jackson | Round 3
There is much to like about Jackson. First, we know he has the talent to challenge for the No. 1 scoring QB title. Only Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts scored more points per dropback in 2022.
Second, he might be playing with his best weapons ever. The Ravens added Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., plus get Rashod Bateman back.
Third, the opportunity costs are far more palatable at the end of Round 3. Once the high-end RBs and Mark Andrews are off the board, Jackson becomes a primary target as the WR tier flattens.
Jackson is by far my most-rostered QB over the first three rounds of drafts at 12%.
Pro tip: I have had luck taking Andrews ahead of Jackson and getting the QB to fall back to me in Round 4. I have stacked the two in 25% of my drafts.
Justin Herbert | Round 5
Herbert played through a rib injury last season and only had Mike Williams and Keenan Allen on the field together for four full contests. As a result, his performance suffered. However, given his 22.7 points per game (PPG) in 2020 and 2021, we all know what the fourth-year QB can do.
The Chargers added Quentin Johnston in the first round and brought in pass-first offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. If that isn’t enough, oddsmakers see the Chargers as one of the most-improved offenses and slate them for the second-most shootouts.
Pro tip: I often pass on Herbert when I don’t already have Allen or Williams on the roster. I believe this is a mistake because I only have 4% exposure to a QB with colossal upside, PLUS everyone is stacking Herbert with Allen and Williams. We can still add quality pieces to Herbert with Johnston in Round 7 and Everett in Round 13 and possibly have some unique Herbert lineups.
Deshaun Watson | Round 7
Watson is my most drafted QB for three reasons.
- His fantasy production has been good every year except in 2022
- He is underpriced with a Round 7 ADP
- There are plenty of stacking options
Watson is at the top of the list if you are looking for an option after Round 6 with the best chance to make the elite-QB drafters pay.
The Browns made adding weapons for Watson their No. 1 offseason priority despite having limited assets (due to the trade for Watson). They secured Elijah Moore via trade and used their first pick in the draft (Round 3) on Cedric Tillman. The rumor is the Browns are looking to open things up on offense, and their offseason moves back that notion up.
Honorable mentions
Justin Fields | Round 4 – Fields proved he has league-winning upside last year, and the Bears upgraded his weapons with D.J. Moore. On that note, don’t feel the need to force Moore with Fields. While Moore is a good player, the volume doesn’t project well in a run-first offense.
Anthony Richardson | Round 8 – If Richardson is the day-one starter, it will be hard for him not to finish inside the top 12, given his rushing ability. If he surprises in the passing game, we suddenly have a QB with top-six upside.
Geno Smith | Round 10 – Smith is my third-highest rostered QB at 14% and offers plenty of stack potential. He was the QB5 overall last year but goes off the board as the QB15. My head hurts.
Daniel Jones | Round 10 – Jones may never become a prolific passer, but he offers the dual-threat upside we want. The Giants added Darren Waller in free agency and field-stretcher Jalin Hyatt in the draft.
Aaron Rodgers | Round 11 – In 2021 and 2022, the veteran QB delivered 24.5 and 21.0 points per game. QBs are playing longer than ever, and Rodgers hasn’t lost his fastball—he is one of the few options after Round 10 with demonstrated upside to help offset the elite options.
Russell Wilson | Round 11 – Wilson is my second-highest rostered QB at 16%. Oddsmakers see Denver as a vastly improved unit despite Wilson’s bad 2022. It makes sense to lean into the larger body of work with the addition of Sean Payton–especially at this ADP.
Looking for even more optimal roster construction strategy? Dwain has you covered for every position below!
Draft capital guidelines
Drafted QB1 by round 7
- Draft like you nailed your QB1 selection—you paid big, let them earn it
- Don’t draft a QB2 until Round 11 at the earliest and be willing to wait longer
- Don’t draft three QBs unless your QB2 isn’t guaranteed a starting role
Drafted QB1 after round 7
- Draft two QBs between Rounds 8 and 12 to offset the elite QB builds
- If you only end up with one QB between Rounds 8 and 12, consider a three-QB build—especially if you can stack all three options with pass catchers
- Pro tip: Plan accordingly—you can’t have a glaring hole at RB/WR because the WR cliff hits in Round 9 and upside RBs are the bee’s knees in Rounds 8 to 11. If you must sacrifice, do it at TE, where you are more likely to make it up later with volume
You can start putting these QB strategies to the test on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up for a new account below!
