Dwain McFarland's 2023 QB Tiers

Ranking players by position is integral to fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving in the draft room. 

For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several quarterbacks in the same tier, waiting until the next round could make sense—someone equally as worthy may be available with your next pick.

Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor, which is great for finding arbitrage plays. For example, Geno Smith profiles similarly to Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence this season, but you can draft him 50 to 60 picks later.

Tier 1 – The alphas

Josh Allen | Bills

Allen is the all-time record holder for most consecutive seasons with 24-plus fantasy points per game at three.

• 2022: 26.0
• 2021: 24.6
• 2020: 25.6

That is a mark Peyton Manning reached once in his illustrious career. Aaron Rodgers has three such seasons. What Allen is doing is next level, and his archetype is the measuring stick by which we now evaluate fantasy QBs.

Allen offers the perfect blend of high-end passing and rushing upside thanks to his ability and the Bills' pass-first mentality.

No other QB posted an 85-plus PFF grade in passing and rushing categories. Allen was also the only QB to top 35 passing attempts and 7 rushing attempts per game. Kyler Murray was the only other player close with 35.5 and 6.2.

Buffalo ranked second in pass rate in close and leading game scripts last season, which helped keep his passing attempts high regardless of the score. In addition, his ability to contribute in designed rushing attempts and on scrambles also makes him an integral component of the Bills’ rushing attack.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) carries the ball in the first quarter of a Week 17 NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Monday, Jan. 2, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Buffalo Bills At Cincinnati Bengals Jan 2 0335

Allen handled 17% of Buffalo’s designed rushing attempts (No. 4 QB) and ranked third as a scrambler, converting 9% of his dropbacks into rushing attempts. He was even more critical inside the five-yard line, accounting for 50% of the team’s rushing attempts.

When you add it all up, you get an amazingly high weekly ceiling and floor. The Bills’ signal caller delivered an astounding 11 top-five QB finishes in 2022—tied with Jalen Hurts for the most. Allen only had one finish outside of the top 12.

If there was a knock on Allen heading into the offseason, it was the Bills’ lack of a high-end No. 2 receiving option. Stefon Diggs is a legit WR1, but Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox have tertiary profiles—neither has proven to be a high-end target earner. However, after trading up above the Cowboys, Buffalo pulled the trigger on TE Dalton Kincaid, who could challenge for the No. 2 role immediately from the slot.

At age 27, Allen is in his prime and is the best bet in football to register 4,500 passing yards and 750 rushing yards with 40-plus total TDs. That will make you the QB1 in most seasons—no wonder he has three in a row.

Jalen Hurts | Eagles

No other QB with at least 10 games played averaged more fantasy points per dropback than Hurts in 2023.

Hurts developed into one of the premier dual-threat QBs in 2022, delivering top-six marks in PFF pass grade (80.6) and rush grade (84.4). The third-year QB improved his passing yards per game from 210 to 247, registering a career-high 8.0 yards per pass attempt.

The Eagles led by four-plus points more than any other team last year (53%), contributing to the fifth-lowest dropback rate in the NFL at 54%. 

While projecting a pass-heavy Eagles offense wouldn’t be prudent given the last two seasons, there is room for improvement. The average NFL team plays 24% of their snaps with a lead of four or more, which leaves room for more than 30.7 pass attempts per game for Hurts in 2023.

Of course, the Eagles could also decide to pass more this season. After all, they have one of the best receiving trios in the NFL with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. We saw Josh Allen stuck in a run-first offense early in his career before the Bills opened up the offense in his third season.

The 25-year-old signal caller ranked No. 1 in rushing attempts per game (11.1). He was the No. 2 QB in designed rushing attempts (25%)—including a 43% rate inside the five-yard line, and finished fourth in scramble rate (8%). Thanks to his broad application in the run game, Hurts is a great bet to finish in the top-three QBs in rush attempts again in 2023.

Hurts delivered a top-five finish 11 times in 15 games last year and should be in for another high-end season given his dual-threat ability and elite surrounding cast.

Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs

Mahomes finished as the top fantasy QB in 2022 despite the loss of Tyreek Hill, and he has four top-six finishes over the last five seasons.

No other QB in the history of the NFL with at least 36 games played has averaged more yards passing per game than Mahomes at 303. He had the second-best PFF pass grade (89.0) last year and averaged the second-most attempts per game (38.1). Regardless of the game script, Kansas City opted to pass far more than the NFL average:

• Leading by four-plus points: 60% (+11)
• Within three points: 69% (+10)
• Trailing by four-plus points: 74% (+6)

While Mahomes isn’t a dual-threat option, he isn’t a zero in the run game. His PFF rush grade of 84.7 was in the top five last year, and his 5.2 career yards per carry average is far above the 3.1 NFL average since 2011. In addition, Mahomes has eclipsed 350 yards on the ground in consecutive seasons.

If there is a question about Kansas City’s passing attack, it is the question marks behind Travis Kelce:

• Kadarius Toney – high-end target earner, but must stay healthy
• Skyy Moore – 2022 second-rounder, but couldn’t get on the field in 2022 despite the team's need
• Rashee Rice – 2023 second-rounder, late breakout vs. non-Power Five
• Richie James – solid slot guy for the Giants but more of a role player
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling – not a target earner
• Justin Watson – not at target earner

The 28-year-old’s ability to extend plays and create chunk yardage outside of structure gives him a chance to deliver another great passing season, but there is some risk with this unproven group of weapons. However, with Toney, Moore, and Rice, at least they have three young options with significant draft capital battling for reps.

Mahomes is a lock to finish inside the top-six quarterbacks, and if one of his young receiving options can fill in behind Kelce, he could challenge for No. 1 again.

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Tier 2 – Elite rusher *or* elite passer

Justin Fields | Bears

The former Round 1 NFL draft pick erupted last season, leading all QBs in rushing yards per game at 76.2, falling just short of Lamar Jackson’s record of 80.4 in 2019. Since 2011, Jackson has three rushing TDs of 40-plus yards—a mark Fields matched in one season.

Dec 24, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) drops back to pass against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Fields was electric as a runner and highly integrated into the Bears' rushing attack, handling 20% of designed attempts. Only Jackson and Hurts registered a higher percentage, and Fields posted the No. 1 scramble rate at 16%. In addition, he was third in designed rushing attempts inside the five-yard line at 39%.

Hurts’s 0.71 fantasy points per dropback was the only finish higher than Fields at 0.70, which is saying a lot considering the discrepancy in the supporting cast. With the addition of D.J. Moore, Fields will have a chance to take his game to the next level in a way we saw Hurts do with A.J. Brown and Allen with Stefon Diggs.

However, Fields has a lot of work to do after finishing 30 of 31 in PFF pass grade for QBs with at least 300 dropbacks in 2022. However, his accuracy issues could be overblown–after adjusting for average depth of target (aDOT), Fields’s 60% completion rate was only one percentage point below the NFL average. 

He was at his best in the deep passing game, which bodes well for his upside, but he struggled mightily against pressure for the second consecutive season with a 29.4 grade. The NFL average is 50.7 since 2006.

Fields is a near-lock as a top-six option for 2023 thanks to his rushing prowess, and if his passing takes the next step, he could challenge for the No. 1 overall rank.

Arbitrage: Jalen Hurts

Lamar Jackson | Ravens

Since entering the league, Jackson has been an unstoppable force in the run game. No other QB in NFL history owns more top-ten finishes in rushing yards per game than Jackson, who has four in only five seasons.

In 2022, no other QB handled a more significant portion of their team’s designed rushing attempts (27%), and Jackson finished seventh in scramble rate at 7%.

Unfortunately, production in the passing game hasn’t been as strong, averaging 199 yards per game with a career-best of 240 in 2021. 

Jackson started his career hot with an 85.3 PFF pass grade but ultimately couldn’t sustain the performance. Over the last three seasons, Jackson posted grades of 76.9, 65.9, and 72.3—slightly above the NFL average of 71.9.

Jackson has struggled to handle pressure, often exacerbating the problem. He owned 34% of his pressures in 2022, per PFF—well above the NFL average of 14%. Additionally, he hasn’t responded well to disguised coverage looks, where his pass grade ranks 26 out of 34 since 2022 (min. 200 dropbacks).

Despite all of this, there is room for optimism around Jackson’s upside as a passer in 2023, thanks to the additions of Zay Flowers via the first round of the draft and Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency. 

Add a healthy Rashod Bateman (2021 first-rounder) and Mark Andrews to the equation, along with more vertical route concepts from Todd Monken, and it is easy to imagine a career passing year for Jackson, who already ranked third in points per dropback in 2022 (0.65).

Jackson has missed five games each of the last two seasons, but if healthy, he has the dual-threat ability to chop down a top-three season.

Arbitrage: Jalen Hurts

Joe Burrow | Bengals

Burrow was PFF’s No. 1 graded passer in 2022 and delivered 22.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the fourth-ranked QB in fantasy football. He was the QB8 in 2021 with almost identical points per dropback (0.56 vs. 0.54). However, the Bengals went all in on their passing game in 2022, favoring the pass more than the league average in all game scripts:

• Leading by four-plus points: 56% (+7)
• Within three points: 72% (+12)
• Trailing by four-plus points: 70% (+2)

Burrow also upped his game in the rushing department with a career-high 257 yards and 5 TDs. 

Of course, he won’t be confused for a dual threat anytime soon, but his 4.7 attempts per game ranked seventh (min 10 games), and most importantly, he accounted for 28% of the attempts inside the five-yard line. Surprisingly, he ranked sixth in designed rush attempts (12%).

With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd back for another season, Burrow has a shot at leading the NFL in passing yards. He is an elite passer to all levels of the field and can beat NFL pressure with his arm.

Pocket passers rely heavily on spike seasons to finish in the top three ranks, which is more challenging than ever with so many high-end dual-threat options. 

Even when rushing QBs weren’t as prevalent, the all-time greats like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady dealt with year-to-year variance. Since 2006, Manning delivered 3 top-three campaigns in 8 full seasons, while Brady had 7 in 15.

Burrow’s ADP is slightly overpriced, but he is an arbitrage play on Mahomes, who goes in Round 2.

Arbitrage: Patrick Mahomes

Tier 3 – Young guns

Justin Herbert | Chargers

Herbert finished as the QB14 with 17.3 points per game last season after finishing as the QB3 (22.7) in 2021 and QB8 (22.7) in 2020. However, he had Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the field together in only four contests.

The fourth-year QB should be in for a bounce-back season in a pass-first offense now guided by Kellen Moore, who led the Cowboys' offense from 2019 to 2022. 

Dak Prescott eclipsed 21 points per game in three of four seasons with Moore, who loves to keep things up-tempo. No team averaged more plays per game in non-overtime than Dallas during Moore’s tenure, with 66.9 plays per game.

Jan 14, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) and wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) celebrate after a play during the second quarter a wild card game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers also added juice to their receiving corps in Round 1 of the NFL draft by selecting Quentin Johnston. No other WR in the class offers the unique blend of downfield prowess and run-after-the-catch ability that Johnston has. He should immediately challenge for the No. 3 role. 

If Willams and Allen are healthy, the Chargers could boast an elite aerial assault, with Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett, and Josh Palmer also contributing.

Herbert took a step back in the rushing department with only 144 yards and zero TDs, but was playing through a rib injury he suffered in Week 2 against the Chiefs. This season we could see something closer to 275 yards and three rushing scores from 2021.

In summary, we have a proven young star surrounded by great talent in an offense that should pass often—Herbert has a lot to like in 2023.