Underdog Playoff Best Ball Strategy. Draft season isn't over.
The conventional wisdom used to be that the fantasy season ended after Week 17. But in the year of our Lord 2023, it’s only just begun when the NFL regular season comes to a close.
That’s because our friends over at Underdog Fantasy have blessed us with a holiday grab bag of playoff best ball contests.
But beware…
These aren’t your grandfather’s best ball contests. The structure of these tournaments and the strategy for winning varies wildly from the traditional best ball contests that span the course of the regular season.
Whether you are dipping your toes in the playoff streets for the first time or a seasoned vet looking to review the fundamentals before you chase the $150,000 top prize in The Gauntlet, I got you covered with a comprehensive guide to playoff best ball.
Let’s dig in…
The nuts and bolts of playoff best ball
* For these playoff contests, you’ll be drafting ten rounds (not eighteen) with five other drafters (not eleven).
* There is no separate TE designation for these contests, as they are lumped in with WRs. Here are the full roster requirements:
Because the most RBs you can start is two compared to three WR/TEs, you should always have more W/T on your roster than RBs. I rarely draft more than three RBs.
I prefer one QB teams, but if you are drafting a team who is projected to earn the bye (more on that later), or you select two fringe QBs with so-so Super Bowl odds, then going two makes sense.
I’m generally taking somewhere between 5-6 WR/TEs.
* The tournaments consist of 4 different rounds. Here is the specific advancement structure for The Gauntlet contest, which has 67,200 total entries:
- Round 1 – Wild Card Round (Top 2 of 6 advance)
- Round 2 – The Divisional Round (Top 2 of 14 advance)
- Round 3 – Conference Championships (Top 1 of 8 advance)
- Round 4 – The Big Game (400 entries in the final)
* For The Gauntlet, there are prizes for all of the teams who advance from Round 1 ($20) and then the prizes escalate from there based on how you finish. The majority of the prize pool goes to the Top 400 teams in the finals:
The crux of the contest
The biggest wrinkle with playoff best ball is the fact that not all of the teams will be playing the entirety of the contest.
In the NFL regular season, we know that 17 games are guaranteed for the teams, but in playoff best ball, that is not the case.
This means the equation we are solving for with each draft is having enough firepower to advance out of the first three rounds, while also still being able to field a full roster in the Super Bowl.
The points in these contests are not cumulative. They reset each week, which means each Round is essentially its own “mini” tournament.
You could score a gazillion points in the Wildcard round with Vikings and Jags players and advance a team, but if none of the players on those teams make it to the Super Bowl, you will have no chance at competing for a top prize.
You can start drafting in playoff lobbies TODAY on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE below!
The Super Bowl is all that matters
In regular season best ball, Week 17 is all that matters because that’s when the majority of the prize pool is distributed.
The Super Bowl is the Week 17 of playoff contests. If you want to win the $150,000 top prize in The Gauntlet, you’ll need to be optimizing for the Super Bowl round.
Because our starting lineups consist of five players, our overarching goal should always be to draft a team that could, at minimum, fill out a starting lineup (1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR/TE, 1 FLEX) in the Super Bowl. If you have less than that, you will almost for sure be drawing dead to win first place.
There are lots of viable constructions to achieve this goal, but your north star needs to be fielding a full starting lineup in the Super Bowl, followed closely by concentrating your team-level bets on the three to four teams who could make the conference championship games.
And if you only take one QB, which is often optimal, then you must build out the rest of your lineup as if that QB’s team is making it to the Super Bowl.
Team-level correlation is king
In traditional best ball, individual player selection is very important. But in playoff best ball, we should be more concerned with correlating team-level bets as opposed to trying to nail the right individual pieces.
Sure, we want to also be drafting the “best” players who project well, but the actual goal is drafting the best players on the teams who will go the furthest in the playoffs.
Where this distinction really comes into play is with the elite fantasy assets on teams who aren’t projected to win many games.
Last year, drafters were selecting Justin Jefferson very early in drafts because of his sky high, single-game ceiling. Not only did he not reach that ceiling (7-47) in the Wild Card Round, but the Vikings lost to the Giants 31-24.
Even if he did help teams advance, Jefferson drafters would have lost a valuable piece heading into the Divisional Round where many teams advanced with all ten of their players remaining and thus more firepower to advance again.
The lesson here is not to never take a Justin Jefferson-esque pick, but to not select an elite player as a one-off. If you want to draft Jefferson and the Vikings, lean into it. Draft as if they are making it to the Conference Championships and grab one to two other Vikings after the early selection.
This is the epitome of “drafting like you are right”--a concept we discussed at length when it comes to the general best ball format. If Jefferson is going to end up being a great pick, it’s not going to be because he drops 30 and the Vikings lose. It will be because he drops 30 and the Vikings pull off an upset to advance. In those scenarios, you want to be able to capitalize on the “bet” at more than one position.
Roster construction options
Now that we understand a few of the basic principles, we can outline a few specific roster constructions you can employ:
- 5-5
- 5 players from one AFC team and five players from one NFC team
- 4-3-3
- 4 players from one team with their QB in one conference, 3 players from 2 teams from the opposite conference
- 4-2-2-2
- 4 players with their QB from one conference, at least two sets of 2 from the opposite conference
There are lots of ways to mix and match as long as you are concentrating your builds around 3-4 teams who have paths to making it to the Conference Championship Round.
Misc. tips
* You will draft against lots of bad players. Playoff best ball drafts can be extremely tilting when drafters don’t “stay in their own lane.” When a drafter goes rogue and “snipes” your QB as their second (or sometimes third) QB selection they are hurting both their team and yours. This is just the reality of drafting against people who don’t fully understand the structure. The lower the stakes, the more likely this is to happen. As you move up higher in stakes–like in The Big Mitten ($250 entry)--drafters rarely get in each other’s way. This is the trade off to playoff best ball providing a huge edge to those who understand the rules. You’ll need to be at peace with the fact that some of your plans will get blown up by rogue drafters. As the saying goes, you gotta crack some eggs to make an omelet.
* Understand the structure and read the rules. Speaking of which…not all playoff best ball tournaments have the same structure and those nuances can make a big difference. Make sure to check the rules for how many teams advance out of Round 1. Last year, only one out of six teams advanced out of Round 1, compared to the Top 2 advancing this year. That shift makes it more viable to lean heavily into team-level correlation and worry less about individual players who project well.
* All of your teams should tell a playoff story. The best approach to playoff best ball is from a portfolio stand point. You should be drafting teams that work under different playoff scenario assumptions. Sure, you could draft 100% of your teams as if the Niners will win the Super Bowl (a logical premise!), but you could potentially lose all of your entry fees if they got upset early on. Instead, it’s ideal to let your draft slot and early picks funnel to you various teams and then build out scenarios around those. For instance, I’m not a big Dolphins believer personally, but when Tyreek Hill falls in drafts, I’ll build out teams around Hill, Tua, and other Dolphins pieces as if they are making it to the Conference Championship game.
* The playoff landscape can change quickly. This piece is meant to be an evergreen strategy resource that helps you draft from now until the contests start. That said, the playoff picture can change quickly. For example, it might make sense to draft a team with decent playoff odds now like the Cleveland Browns, but if they drop two games in a row, they could become undraftable.
I highly recommend referencing the updated playoff odds before you jump into drafts. I particularly like the table from Sumer Sports which includes odds to make it to various stages of the playoffs, as well as the odds to get a bye.
* How to handle the bye weeks. Optimal roster construction in these contests is one QB (on a team that goes to the Super Bowl), but that objective can be tricky when factoring in the teams who are forecasted to earn the bye. As of Week 15, the Niners have a 66% chance to secure the bye. If their odds for the bye continue to increase, you’ll need to draft a second QB alongside Brock Purdy (it will be very tough to advance with a 0 at QB). The key is to make sure you aren’t spending too much draft capital at QB2, while still building out correlated team bets. An ideal way to do this is to draft your second QB on an underdog from the opposite conference so you have paths to multiple Super Bowl matchups.
* Get some reps. Playoff best ball, more so than any other type of best ball, requires some reps to get your bearings. Hop in there and get a feel for things and be prepared to shift strategies as the playoff picture comes into focus.
We’ll have some more playoff best ball pieces in the coming weeks as the playoff picture solidifies. See ya in the lobby!
