After Drafting Cam Ward, Are The Tennessee Titans A Good Bet To Step Forward?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Back In The Swing: Dust is settling on betting lines now that the NFL Draft results are in, plus MLB’s on television twenty-five hours a day …
Does it get any better than this?
Another dual-sport newsletter on deck I think you’ll really enjoy. Sorry to play the wet blanket on a certain musical city, but today I’ve got a plus money under with a progressive dogpile longshot attached.
Then it’s off to the diamond for my favorite future on the board today.
Can’t Miss Post-Draft NFL Primer
Before we dive into today’s action, I’d be remiss to not stress again how great Thor Nystrom’s recent work has been. After putting out the 2025 NFL Draft grades much to the annoyance of Lions fans, he just came out with his rankings for each NFC team’s UDFA class. We know he’s doing it so that his Minnesota Vikings can find another Adam Thielen, but it’s well worth the read. Enjoy!
BONUS: FREEDMAN WITH THE EARLY 2026 NFL MOCK DRAFT
Hot takes 🔥 , hotter takes 🔥🔥🔥, and the latest NFL rumors …
🏈 Ready to buy low on a Caleb Williams revival?
🔥 Will those boring veterans end up paying off in the end?
🤔 Projecting Rookie RB workloads. Never too early for futures bets.
🅰️ If you play dynasty fantasy football. These NFL Draft grades are for you.
🐔 No one was chicken to make this bet. Never in doubt.
🏈🔮Look Into My Crystal Ball—NFL Futures First Look 🔮🏈
THE BET: Tennessee Titans Under 5.5 Regular-Season Wins, 1 unit bet (+130) & NFL’s Fewest Wins 0.10 unit bet (+1100) DK
Story’s always the same. The NFL Draft concludes, instantly futures get posted universally and the public makes a mad dash to the window—hellbent on smashing an over.
Well, not on my watch …
Sure, having the first overall pick’s really cool, and finding a potential QB to man the most important single position in pro sports matters. That said, it generally takes more than one prospect to shift the trajectory of a downtrodden franchise (especially those with questionable on-field decision-making abilities). One needs to look no further than last season’s Bears, who were an order of magnitude better than this year’s Titans and still finished with two fewer wins (5) than the previous year.
So why do the markets like the Titans to double their win total in 2025? Honestly, it feels like irrational exuberance to me …
While most draft coverage rests firmly in the rearview, it cannot be fully ignored. Almost anywhere you looked, the reviews on Cam Ward closely resembled each other—especially regarding first-year projections and expectations.
A piece by ESPN's Jordan Reid really resonated with me, revealing Ward's supposed concerns from an area scout. “Although Ward's knack for finding explosive plays often times leads to points, it can also cause turnovers … and Ward's itch for reckless plays may not be a coachable issue. He’s a work in progress when it comes to controlling careless plays and head-scratching decisions outside of structure that lead to turnovers, with his pick-six against Cal being a prime example," Reid wrote.
Not to besmirch the good name of a player yet to debut and prove us wrong—but doesn’t that sound eerily like what they’re experiencing with Will Levis?
To find out precisely what I might be missing, I did what I do best—dive headlong into spreadsheets for any reason to expect a half dozen wins from this Titans squad. By the numbers, I must say it ain’t pretty.
Pushback Is granted, however, on potential second-year growth from the coaching/coordinator overhaul in 2024. Fine. All the same, you can call me Mr. Missouri on this one—they need to show me first before I’m buying in.
TITANS OFFENSE, MACRO / EFFICIENCY:
- 18.3 Points Per Game: 27th
- -8.8 Average Point Differential: 30th
- 5.0 Yards Per Play: 27th
- 42.5% Offensive Success Rate: T-28th
- 1.6 First Downs Per Drive: T-30th
- -0.12 EPA/Play: T-31st
- 26.4 Average Drive Distance: T-30th
- 1.6 Points Per Drive: T-30th
- 30.4% Scoring Drive Success: 29th
- +0.05 EPA/Attempt: T-29th
- 195.1 Passing Yards Per Game: 26th
- 1,585 Yards After Catch: 29th
- 4.7 Yards Per Reception: 30th
- 7.2% Sack Per Dropback: 31st
Woof. Objectively terrible stuff from Tennessee, covering every critical angle in what can only be described as systemic rot. It’s actually hard to be this bad. You’d think trailing for an entire season would at least translate into some fun passing stats, but nothing could be further from the truth—can’t help but shake your head in disgust at those finishes.
Again, this isn’t a condemnation of Ward as much as pointing out the fact no one player alone could right this ship. Even in a softish division with a half-decent defense, it’s impossible to succeed being this ineffective in any phase of the game. Deficiencies at every turn and one of, if not the worst skill position rooms in the league will always come around hurt you in the win category. Every team faces weekly scenarios where imposing their will to score wins games, and this group still lacks the necessary explosivity.
Anything can happen in a fluid market, but I’d frankly be shocked if we don’t see price and even actual line movement by the time opening kickoff rolls around.
⚾🏆MLB Futures—Central Casting: Go, Reds, Go!🏆⚾
THE BET: Cincinnati Reds To Win NL Central (+800) DK
Perhaps this blind spot will be my undoing, but I’m doing it anyway. To keep down argument length while saving my sanity, I’m ignoring the fact Milwaukee’s listed at shorter odds than Cincy to win the Central. The Reds are better than the Brewers. Outside Freddy Peralta, there’s zero starting depth plus the bullpen’s a mess. I’d take a CIN vs. MIL head-to-head bet this instant if it were available.
With that out of the way, the blue elephant in the room Is obviously the Chicago Cubs—who are definitely playing great, but also obviously flawed.
After losing frontline starter Justin Steele for the season, now it’s incumbent ace Shota Imanaga heading to the IL with a lower limb injury. Granted, it’s not some catastrophic elbow injury—but any deviation in routine for an SP could spell disaster. Setbacks also happen at any time, derailing entire campaigns in a blink. Remember, the Reds are currently only three games back of the Cubbies, with that difference found in razor’s edge games (extra-innings or one-run contests).
Since pitching came up, you’d be crazy to rank a Cubs rotation, especially one sans Steele and Imanaga above a quintet featuring Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. The Reds simply aren't getting the credit they deserve for a rotation currently leading MLB in WHIP (1.10).
In terms of offense, it’s hard to realistically counter this Cubs lineup from any analytical angle. They’re leading MLB in runs, batting average, steals, swinging strike rate, and expected weighted on-base average—quite a combination. Though CIN can’t make those sorts of claims at the dish, the Reds have combined a pull-heavy, top-tier plate approach with lots of stolen bases, resulting in the league’s fifth-most runs scored. Bottom line is, adding Tyler Stephenson back into the fold with the new-and-improved Noelvi Marte going bananas transformed the Reds into an above-average squad.
At this point, I’m already struggling to validate a (+800) price on the Reds to make up three games on the Cubs given the circumstances—and we haven’t even mentioned the bullpens.
To me, Cincinnati also possesses a clear late-game edge on Chicago, whose closer Ryan Pressly is walking a tightrope nightly by boasting a 5.28 SIERA, 1.46 WHIP, and a -3.7% K-BB …. yes, negative!
REDS BULLPEN ⏩ CUBS BULLPEN
- ERA: 3.52 ⏩ 4.41
- WHIP: 1.13 ⏩ 1.41
- Batting Average Allowed: .193 ⏩ .236
- Zone-Contact Rate: 86.4% ⏩ 88.6%
- Blown Saves: 4 ⏩ 7
Anyway, the Cubs are the rightful favorites, but I’ll go down with the ship on the fact that they’re being mispriced. By the time we hook up again next week, Cincy could be a single game out and its odds to win the division will be closer to (+350) than (+800),
🧮⚾Betting Research Center—MLBMA Algo™ Data⚾🧮
Today’s SP Sheet
For anyone still interested in daily MLB betting on a more granular level, hit me up anytime on X @JohnLaghezza. I provide my world-famous starting pitching sheets and MLB Moving Averages Algorithm results seven days a week to the betting public.
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