Betting

Bet On Cam Ward To Be The No. 1 Pick In The NFL Draft

by John Laghezza

3 months ago

In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

Can Cam Ward be stopped?: Since variety’s the spice of life, why not mix it up a little bit? With just a small handful of squads left to cover in our MLB team preview series, I figured it was high time for me to throw my hat in the NFL Draft ring.

Better late than never, right?

Today, I share my thoughts on the Tennessee Titans’ decision atop the draft board and whether or not there’s any value left in a rapidly developing betting market. Then it’s off to Beantown for a detailed look at the Red Sox, aimed to give you a leg up on preseason baseball betting markets with all the most recent analyses.

Better late than never, right?

Some notes!

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here, along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute!

📋 It’s Rankings Week, and our analysts are… updating their ranks all week. Dwain and Ian have already broken down their rankings. Freedman has positional ranks up today.

🔮 For my dynasty heads, Sam Wallace did a fun experiment trying to decide which players he’d trade the 1.01 (aka Ashton Jeanty, in non-SuperFlex leagues) for.

OK, time to get to some Cam Ward talk!

(For my MLB people, click this button below 👇 to head to our MLB futures odds page!)

+1200 PHILLIES? +2500 RANGERS?

March Madness kind of sort of starts tonight!!

🪄 Looking for Cinderellas? High Point and Harvard are among our picks!

⚾️ Cooterdoodle fills out her brackets—including one that advances the team with the highest Scrabble score.

📋 Fill out your own March Madness bracket right here.

🏀 Futures odds for the women’s and men’s NCAA Tournaments.

🎓 Emeka Egbuka is the next stud Ohio State WR to graduate to the NFL.

🏈⏰NFL Draft Discussion—Dear Titans, Don’t Get Cute⏰🏈

Wish I didn’t push back so hard on my editors trying to get me out of my baseball comfort zone—this take would’ve sounded more prescient a week or two ago when it first came up. Tennessee’s on the clock with just over a month to go, and for me the choice at No. 1 has been clear for a while — it’s Cam Ward all the way (here’s the excellent Gene Clemons—my friend and yours—on Cam vs. Shedeur Sanders).

Like many others, I had reasonable doubts regarding competition after posting cartoonish numbers at Incarnate Word (384-4,648-47). And like those same critics, any concerns of mine were firmly laid to rest after Ward’s run as a Miami Hurricane in 2024, putting up similarly crazy stats (454-4,313-39) on way better efficiency metrics (67.25 Completion, 9.5 YPA, 331.8 Passing Yards/Game).

It doesn’t take a film expert to see Ward’s got the size, stature, and tools to work in the NFL. Not to drag my downtrodden Jets into the conversation, but he’s the anti-Zach Wilson. We need to stop evaluating young quarterbacks on their ability to make throws without duress. Who cares? How many dropbacks take place from a truly clean pocket without any pressure? Spoiler alert, the answer’s few, if any.

For me, Ward’s play while processing the defense’s reactions truly separates him from the current QB class, and it isn’t particularly close. Going back on the film, I’m getting big-time Patrick Mahomes aura. The escapability and vision while buying time out of structure to make high-velocity, accurate throws off-platform from a variety of arm angles is precisely the type of adaptability I’m looking for in a future franchise QB.

I get how some super-sharp people like our very own Matty Freedman thinks (in his latest mock) that TEN could pivot to edge rusher Abdul Carter out of Linebacker U after posting a season with 12 sacks and twice as many tackles for a loss. That said, it’s whistling past the graveyard considering the Titans’ recent quarterback play. Tennessee’s 2024 offensive output speaks for itself—in the very worst way…

EPA/Play: -0.12 (30th)

Success Rate: 42.7% (26th)

Average Drive Distance: 26.4 (30th)

Passing Yards/Game: 195.1 (26th)

EPA/Pass Attempt: +0.05 (28th)

Interceptions: 21 (31st)

Sacks: 44 (30th)

As far as betting goes, apparently my take’s now aligned with consensus as Ward’s moved from (-320) to (-800) in many spots to go first overall—outside my tolerance for laying juice. I guess if the market continues to move toward Ward, there’s an argument to lean into the Titans’ front office’s incompetence — and bet Shedeur Sanders as a longshot, who Mel Kiper thinks has a shot.

For transparency’s sake, I’d wait as long as possible—Sanders got listed at (+350) in January and I’ve recently seen odds as high as (+6600). If and when it gets to (+7500) or higher, there’s absolutely a better than ~1.5% implied probability TEN goes against the grain.

And if Freedman’s right? Carter is listed at +380 on DraftKings at the moment!

COULD TWO-WAY TRAVIS HUNTER GO NO. 1?

Before we dive into the Red Sox, how about a quick look at the…

2024 Team Leaderboard: Hard Hit Rate

Take a hard look at No. 6 …

⚾🏫 MLB Team Preview—Boston Red Sox 🏫⚾

After three straight losing seasons for just the third time in a century (though there was a 15-year stretch post-Babe Ruth debacle), it felt to many that Boston was heading in the wrong direction. Highlighted by two massive defeats in both the Mookie Betts and Chris Sale deals, the usually savvy Sox couldn’t seem to get it right.

Maybe trading their way to glory just isn’t their destined path—because whatever’s going on in their prospect research and development program is working better than anyone. Homegrown talent Jarren Duran already looks like he could be earning MVP votes in the near future, and we’ve yet to see the dynamic combination of Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony, and Marcelo Meyer in the bigs. The MLB season is a marathon and it takes depth to succeed through the finish line—just ask the Yankees. In 2025 the sock drawer is stacked and a sneaky pick to make a deep run.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

Jarren Duran: .269 / 93 / 74 / 20 / 32
Rafael Devers: .266 / 84 / 100 / 33 / 3
Alex Bregman: .260 / 72 / 75 / 21 / 2
Triston Casas: .231 / 68 / 78 / 23 / 0
Trevor Story: .233 / 59 / 51 / 14 / 19
Wilyer Abreu: .238 / 59 / 59 / 18 / 9
Connor Wong: .237 / 46 / 43 / 12 / 8
David Hamilton: .225 / 32 / 20 / 5 / 19
Ceddanne Rafaela: .237 / 56 / 49 / 12 / 18

Hitting Overview: If boring veterans win, the Sox did their part this offseason to boost that narrative by adding former MVP-runnerup Alex Bregman into the fold. While he’ll probably take a step back in power by moving away from Houston’s pull-happy Crawford Boxes, his elite plate approach and contact skills make him an easy candidate for a ton of doubles by denting the Green Monster on a nightly basis.

The power profiles of everyone in the top half will threaten most every pitcher they face, but the order doesn’t come without flaws. Outside of Bregman and perhaps Duran, there are lots of swing-and-miss issues packaged with poor in-zone contact rates. Seven hitters posted a +14% swinging strike in 2024, with five of those making contact at a sub-70% clip—that’s not good.

Again, it’s just a matter of time before injuries or frustration force the youth movement up to the big show. We could even see an early trade from their depth of talent to bolster a rotation against a division on the ropes.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

Garrett Crochet, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tanner Houck, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Walker Buehler, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Richard Fitts, RHP: ⭐⭐
Quinn Priester, RHP: ⭐⭐

Pitching Overview: With the Yankees dominating injury headlines nationwide, it could be easy to miss their Bostonian counterparts are not too far behind. We’re not even at the spring equinox yet and Boston’s already down three viable starters. While Brayan Bello (shoulder soreness), Lucas Giolito (strained hamstring), and Kutter Crawford (knee soreness) all expect to return in somewhat short order, I’m curious to see how Boston’s management responds. The Yanks are without Gerrit Cole and the O’s let Corbin Burnes leave for the Arizona desert—the time to pounce is now. Featuring early Cy Young favorite Garrett Crochet, the top of the rotation is certainly legit, able to go toe-to-toe with anyone in a short series. The $64,000 question? Health.

In the meantime, it looks like we’ll get 25-year-old righty Richard Fitts, who’s pitched brilliantly this spring (10.2 IP; 0.84 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 22% K-BB), and former Pirate Quinn Priester, who hasn’t (9.1 IP; 4.82 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 4.3% K-BB). A bad start to the season or one more injury, including a setback, could force the Sox’s hand toward a transaction. Only time will tell.

IS GARRETT CROCHET A LOCK FOR AL CY YOUNG?

🔮 Quick Hit Futures Bet: Alex Bregman, Doubles Machine 🔮

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.

I could swear I saw this market live just a couple of days ago. Maybe it’s down due to the Japan series so keep your head on a swivel—I couldn’t post an unavailable line.

In the team preview above I mentioned Alex Bregman’s move to Boston potentially hurting his home run totals with the Green Monster eating up those wall scrapers in Houston. However, his refusal to strike out (13.6% K) or chase pitches (26.5% O-Swing) with top-tier contact metrics (92.7% Zone-Contact) means lots of balls in play in Baseball Savant’s top-rated ballpark in terms of doubles. Couple those elite plate skills with solid contact quality (40.8% Hard Hit) plus a propensity to pull (14.5% Pulled FBLD)—and you get all the inputs you need for another 51-double season like the one he put up in 2018.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

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John Laghezza