Biggest Questions for the 2024 MLB Betting Season.
Baseball was once considered America’s pastime, but those days are in the rearview mirror. The MLB has fallen way behind the NFL and NBA in terms of popularity in recent years, particularly in the younger demographics.
Still, there’s just something romantic about baseball. Going to the ballpark on a summer day, grabbing a hot dog and maybe an adult beverage or two, and watching the local team play. For my money, it doesn’t get much better than that.
One way to make baseball more exciting? Bet on it! The season is a long grind, and betting on each day of the regular season can start to feel like a job more than a hobby. But futures betting? That’s easy enough for anyone.
Betting on a future ensures that you’re going to get a long sweat for your money. You don’t need to check up on it every day, but it will be there for you if you want.
I already tackled some of my favorite futures bets for the upcoming MLB season, but I wanted to tackle the futures market another way as well. Let’s dive into some of the biggest burning questions for the upcoming baseball season and how we can leverage those questions in the betting market.
Can anyone beat the Dodgers?
This has been the biggest talking point of the offseason. The Dodgers have been really good for a long time. Los Angeles has won at least 100 games in six of the past seven full seasons, and they’ve made 11 consecutive trips to the playoffs. That said, this year just feels different.
The Dodgers already had one of the best cores in baseball, and then they went out and spent over a billion dollars this offseason. Just to reiterate: that's billion with a “B”. The amount of money that Los Angeles spent compared to the rest of the league is eye-popping (per Spotrac):
Adding Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto has given this season a feeling of inevitability. But even so, a World Series title is still far from guaranteed.
After all, the Dodgers being good is nothing new. They’ve been the best team in baseball for the past half decade, and yet, they’ve won just one World Series over that span. They’ve even failed to even make it out of the Divisional Round in three of the past five seasons, so all the talent and money in the world can only help so much in a five-game series where short-term variance can easily rear its ugly head.
Los Angeles is currently priced at +375 to win the World Series on Bet365, and they’re as low as +300 at other sportsbooks. That's simply too low for any one team, even one as talented as the Dodgers. Odds of +300 translates to an implied probability of 25%, and none of the major projection systems have the Dodgers rated anywhere near that threshold. PECOTA has the Dodgers at 16.8%, FanGraphs has them at 15.8%, and even the most bullish, The BATX, has the Dodgers at just 22.7%.
The Dodgers’ odds being inflated has created value with the rest of the top contenders. The Braves (+600; Caesars) and Astros (+800; BetMGM) are both showing value using the projection systems at their current price tags, so I’m happy to bet both and hope that the 2024 Dodgers fizzle out in the postseason like some of their previous iterations.
Will the Orioles take another step forward?
The Orioles have been one of the biggest surprises in recent years. They spent a long time toiling at the bottom of the standings, which then allowed them to stockpile some of the best prospects in baseball.
Adley Rutschman was considered the No. 2 prospect in 2022, Gunnar Henderson was No. 1 in 2023, and Jackson Holliday is No. 1 in 2024. Baltimore also has four other prospects currently inside MLB.com’s top 32, and three of them are at Triple-A or already in the majors.
With that much talent, it’s not surprising that this team has improved in recent years. However, it is surprising just how quickly the Orioles have managed to turn things around. They went from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 wins in 2022 and then to 101 wins last season, which is quite a meteoric rise.
The question is – can they take another step forward? Personally, I think it’s more likely that they could instead take a step backwards in 2024.
Mar 15, 2024; Port Charlotte, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday (87) runs the bases against the Tampa Bay Rays in the second inning at Charlotte Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
While the Orioles were excellent last year, they were certainly a bit fortunate. They had a run differential of a 94-win team, which is still very good but not elite.
Baltimore also had a league-best 35 wins in one-run games or games that went to extra innings, having posted an overall record of 35-18 in those spots. Part of that stems from having a good bullpen – they were fifth in bullpen ERA – but most of it is just flat-out good luck. By comparison, the Yankees had the best bullpen ERA in baseball but were just 18-25 in extra innings and one-run games in 2023.
The Orioles also have some questions on the pitching side heading into this season. They were 14th in ERA+ last season, checking in as just barely above league-average. Bringing in Corbin Burnes should help, but Burnes wasn’t quite as dominant as usual in his final season with the Brewers in 2023. On top of that, the rest of the pitching staff is unproven, especially with Kyle Bradish and John Means currently out with injuries.
Finally, the Orioles play in the toughest division in baseball. All five teams have postseason aspirations, and while the Red Sox aren’t in the same class as the other four squads, there are no easy wins in this division. It’s unlikely that the Orioles will be able to rack up tons of wins in their 52 games against their most common opponents.
Add it all up, and I’m betting the under on 90.5 wins for Baltimore in 2024. None of the top projection systems are particularly close to that figure, as FanGraphs, PECOTA, and The BATX all project between 84.2 to 86.5 wins for them.
Who is the next breakout superstar?
Don’t underestimate the value that a transcendent prospect can have on an MLB squad. We’ve seen it quite a bit in recent years. Rutschman was able to turn the Orioles around almost instantaneously. Julio Rodriguez had a similar impact on the Mariners, and just last year, Corbin Carroll propelled the Diamondbacks to their first World Series berth since 2001. When a player is truly that good, youth doesn’t really matter.
There are a few good candidates to have a Carroll-like impact in 2024. Jackson Holliday is considered the top prospect in baseball, but he’s going to start the year in the minors. Paul Skenes has the potential to be a dominant starting pitcher, but his impact is limited to just one appearance every five games. And as for Junior Caminero, he has potential but is still just 20 years old and will likely not be rushed to the big leagues.
My pick to be the next breakout superstar in 2024 is Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio.
Feb 24, 2024; Peoria, Arizona, USA; Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Jackson Chourio (11) bats against the San Diego Padres during the first inning of a Spring Training game at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Chourio is a legit five-tool player, possessing a combination of power and speed that few players his age can match. He had a 20-homer and 40-steal season between Double-A and Triple-A, making him just the fifth teenager to reach those thresholds in the minors since 1958. The last player to do it? Ronald Acuna Jr., and I think we all know how that turned out.
With Chourio already locked up to a long-term deal, the Brewers don’t have to play any games by manipulating his service time. He’s going to be on the Opening Day roster and an everyday starter.
Chourio is currently available at +650 to win NL Rookie of the Year, and I’m very intrigued at that number. Although he'll have to contend with Yamamoto on the Dodgers and Jung Ho Lee on the Giants, two established players who will be transitioning to the MLB from overseas, the door is open for Chourio with Yamamoto already roughed up in his first start.
What’s going on in the Central divisions?
Speaking of the Brewers, they’re a team that I’m higher on than most. I’ve already locked in bets on them to go over 76.5 wins (-110; Caesars) and to win the NL Central (+750; DraftKings).
Part of that stems from me liking what Milwaukee has put together, but the best thing they have going for them is the state of their division. The NL Central is wide open with no true frontrunner. The Cardinals most closely fit that description, but they’re an old team with an over/under of just 85.5 wins. Would it be that shocking if they fell off?
The same can be said of the AL Central. The White Sox aren't going to be in contention, but the other four teams can all make realistic cases for winning the division. These divisions being down might not be great for baseball, but it does open up excellent betting opportunities.
Mar 16, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras (24) hits against the Texas Rangers in the third inning at American Family Fields of Phoenix. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
I’ve highlighted the Brewers as my preferred option in the NL Central, but you can get any team you want at better than even money. The Cardinals (+190; Caesars) and Cubs (+200; FanDuel) are the favorites, and the Reds (+400; FanDuel), Brewers, and even Pirates (+1300; BetMGM) are all live dogs.
In the AL Central, the Twins are priced as the clear favorites (+100; Caesars), but they won just 87 games last season. Most of the major projection systems are expecting some regression from Minnesota, so there's another opportunity for a .500 team to earn a playoff spot.
The Tigers have garnered some support from the public (+380; FanDuel), but I’d rather take a flier on the Royals (+1000; FanDuel). They have two really good things going for them: an MVP-caliber shortstop in Bobby Witt Jr. and a potential ace pitcher in Cole Ragans. Kansas City also added some quality veteran starters in Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha during the offseason, so if any of their other young hitters can break out, the Royals could make some noise, and +1000 is too good of a price tag to pass up.
Which team is going to be a bust?
It happens every year. There will inevitably be a team that enters the season with big expectations that instead end up falling flat on their face. My Mets usually fit that description, but with them having already taken a step back in 2024, someone else is going to have to wear the crown this year.
I think the Dodgers and Orioles are two really good under candidates this season, but I don’t see either team truly “busting.” The Dodgers have a roughly 98% chance to qualify for the playoffs using the projection systems, and the Orioles are around 55% to make the postseason. While overpriced, they do still have a solid chance to make the playoffs.
The team that could really bust according to my projections is the Seattle Mariners. They’re currently priced like a team that’s expected to make the postseason (-160), but their actual odds should be closer to +130.
Mar 13, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez against the Los Angeles Dodgers during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
It’s not entirely Seattle’s fault. They do have an exciting young team, but they'll need to contend with some monsters. Even if only one team makes the playoffs from the AL Central, that still means that just five teams total can make the postseason from the other two divisions.
In turn, that means that two of the Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers, and Mariners will be on the outside looking in. The Astros and Yankees are a clear tier above the Mariners while the other four teams are projected for more wins using the projection systems.
Seattle has won at least 88 games in back-to-back seasons, but I’m not sure where the improvement is going to come from in 2024. The fact that they traded away Jarred Kelenic for two pitchers who will miss the entire year certainly isn’t going to help.
I’m betting on the Mariners to miss the postseason this year at +140 on BetMGM, and I’ll have some exposure to the under on their win total as well.
